Google and Facebook dominate mobile advertising, but there is plenty of room for other “winners” as mobile time spent continues to scale (link). Brands and advertisers are looking for more ways to target consumers on the most personal device they own, mobile phones, especially younger consumers, as time spent with traditional media continues to collapse (live TV ratings now in freefall outside of live sports). With an estimated $1.75 billion in 2019 revenues, Snapchat is still in the early stages … Continue reading Snapping Back: Initiating Snap at BUY with $20 Price Target
On March 25, 2019, Apple announced (link) their plan to launch Apple TV+. What made the announcement so notable was Apple’s plan to offer the service across an array of third-party connected TV devices including Samsung smart TVs, Amazon Fire TV, LG, Roku, Sony and Vizio. With Apple TV+ set to launch on November 1st, Roku released their Apple TV app in their channel store earlier this week, as you can see in the image embedded to the right (Roku’s … Continue reading Watch: Apple TV Overbuild Roku’s Platform – a Necessary Trade-Off For Roku
Last week, KCRW’s Kim Masters interviewed us for her weekly podcast called The Business (entire 19 minute podcast embedded below, or listen on iTunes or Spotify). The podcast discussion focused on how the proliferation of OTT streaming services is empowering/benefiting consumers, why we believe WarnerMedia’s HBO will be able to rapidly transition subscribers to HBO Max, why Disney+’s discounted price makes sense initially, the reality that while new streaming services may be successful, they will negatively impact legacy business lines, … Continue reading The Business’ Kim Masters Interviews LightShed’s Rich Greenfield
Netflix missing a quarter is far from a first-time event. However, the stock has failed to recover this time around, with investor sentiment at the worst levels we can remember in several years (with the stock 27% below its pre-Q2 2019 peak of $385 in May 2019). Investors fear: An unprecedented second straight miss of quarterly subscriber expectations (based on third party data sources whose accuracy has been spotty at best over the years).Guidance for Q4 2019 will be muted … Continue reading Initiating Netflix at BUY, $375 Target – Competition Will Accelerate Internet TV Evolution
Week one of the Fall 2019 TV season demonstrated that the concept of linear, live TV for entertainment programming is fading at an alarming rate (link to premiere week ratings drops), with the scariest line in Variety’s recap of week one’s winners and losers (link): Loser: All the new shows Note: Fox was the only network to show ratings growth in premiere week, aided by the strength of Thursday Night Football (not entertainment programming). The key takeaways are that audiences … Continue reading Niche is Still Niche, No Matter How Many Sports You Throw into an SVOD Bundle
Last Friday, Netflix Founder and CEO, Reed Hastings, was interviewed at the RTS Cambridge Convention (entire 30-minute interview embedded below with key highlights and timestamps). Press reports out of the event spooked Netflix investors, particularly after disappointing Q2 2019 subscriber results. Hastings talked to “a whole new world” of competition starting in November 2019 (Disney+ and AppleTV+) and “a lot of them have very deep pockets.” However, the broader context of Hastings’ comments was missed/ignored and presents a far more … Continue reading Will Netflix Keep Eating the World or Are They Now on the Menu?
Clay Travis (@claytravis) from OutKicktheCoverage invited us to join him on his podcast, Wins & Losses, yesterday to discuss the future of media, with a focus on where sports media is headed. The 70-minute podcast is embedded below and you can listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio or the podcast platform of your choice. Our wide-ranging discussion with Travis focused on how the consumer has been empowered with choice in an Internet TV world versus the lack of choice/flexibility in the legacy … Continue reading Where is Media World Headed? LightShed’s Rich Greenfield Interviewed by Outkick’s Clay Travis
Fostering creativity is one of the most important aspects of building a successful entertainment company. Whenever we think about fostering a creative culture, we think of the following wisdom from former HBO CEO Richard Plepler: Create an environment where the painters want to paint While there is no arguing that Plepler was amazing at fostering a unique creative culture at HBO, nobody has fostered creativity across an entire company better than Disney Chairman and CEO, Bob Iger, especially when you … Continue reading Revisiting Apple + Disney: Is a Fairy Tale Ending Possible?
A few years ago, Comcast executives were openly talking about video subscriber “growth” benefiting from their investment in the industry-leading X1 platform/technology (link). By 2018, the strategy had shifted to a focus on “profitable” video subscribers (link), calling themselves a connectivity company and fully integrating third-party video apps such as Netflix into their set-top boxes (link). Essentially, this was Comcast’s way of saying the MVPD biz had matured and there was no reason to chase subscribers unless they had a … Continue reading Comcast is Embracing a #PostBundle World by Making Xfinity Flex Free; but Just Step 1
Summer 2019 is over and team LightShed has emerged from our two-month hiatus (read about our transition, here). We have had plenty of time to take a step back and reevaluate the state of the TMT world. We are excited to finally share some of our thoughts. We look at the broad TMT landscape using a lens that focuses on changes in consumer behavior to illuminate the key themes that will impact value creation/destruction. Over the past decade, we witnessed revolutionary … Continue reading 14 Things We Are Thinking About Coming Out of Summer 2019