If the FCC announces a public market auction of C-Band spectrum this week, as many investors now expect, it is likely to complicate and materially delay the availability of spectrum that has been globally identified as a primary 5G spectrum band. In addition, if Chairman Pai makes the announcement of a public auction before auction legislation is enacted, it is unlikely that the proceeds could be used to pay for an offset in legislative spending. In that scenario, it would … Continue reading When Would An FCC Auction Make C-Band Spectrum Available For 5G And Who Gets The Money?
Senator John Kennedy from Louisiana has been a vocal critic of a private auction of C-Band spectrum and has voiced those concerns to the President. That is not new. However, we believe the administration continues to be more interested in winning the Race To 5G and will support the determination of its appointee, FCC Chairman Ajit Pai. We are also skeptical that Senator Kennedy can gain support from fellow members to sign a new Bill that would handicap a federal … Continue reading Will FCC Chairman Pai Allow The Race To 5G To Be Derailed By Politics?
The Wall Street Journal reported that T-Mobile CEO John Legere is negotiating a job as CEO at WeWork. It was also confirmed by Fox Business’ Charlie Gasparino. Nevertheless, this story makes little sense to us and we think T-Mobile and SoftBank should deny its veracity, immediately. Legere is certainly qualified to take the WeWork CEO position, perhaps over-qualified given his track record. There would also be significant financial incentive for Legere to accept, given its well heeled owner. However, it’s … Continue reading T-Mobile and SoftBank Should Immediately Deny That Legere Will Take WeWork CEO Spot
In the next few weeks and months, the FCC is likely to decide on key spectrum issues that could end up being pivotal for the success of 5G in the United States. Further delays or unfavorable decisions could trigger bankruptcies, stymie investment or, most importantly, materially delay or impair spectrum that is critical for the United States to win the Race to 5G. Unfortunately, the ongoing uncertainty about whether T-Mobile will be able to close the proposed acquisition of Sprint … Continue reading Three Spectrum Items FCC Chairman Pai Needs To Act on Now In #RaceTo5G
Masa Son remained optimistic about the rising value of SoftBank on his call with investors this morning. However, he didn’t have much to say on the sale of Sprint to T-Mobile, perhaps the biggest catalyst facing the stock this year. On the call, Masa highlighted the Vision Fund’s performance despite taking a $9 billion write down of asset value in that fund this quarter. He also restated his belief in WeWork, which he insists SoftBank did not “rescue” and expects to … Continue reading Masa Remains Bullish On WeWork And Vision Fund As Sprint Looms Large
T-Mobile has not announced an extension of its merger agreement with Sprint. The deal passed its outside date deadline on Friday. That means that both companies have gained the option to terminate the deal at any time. We think Deutsche Telekom should use that flexibility to renegotiate the terms of the deal, given the erosion at Sprint and the rising cost of the transaction. We also believe a lower price paid to Sprint could actually help its case with the States … Continue reading T-Mobile Didn’t Extend Sprint Merger Agreement. It’s Time For DT To Renegotiate
SoftBank Chairman and CEO, Masa Son, has an opportunity to change a decidedly negative news cycle for the company if he is able to raise more money for Vision Fund 2. He will be attending the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh this week to do just that, as highlighted by Fox Business. (Link) It would obviously improve SoftBank’s fundamental outlook based on the larger opportunity for management and incentive fees on that new money. However, the Vision Funds have to … Continue reading Masa Might Raise More Capital For Next Vision Fund, But Will It Matter For SoftBank’s Stock?
Comcast’s wireless net adds of 204,000 were slightly above expectations, but down 10.5% from last year, a three quarter trend of net declines >10%. It’s becoming increasingly clear that Comcast’s wireless offering is simply playing a supporting role to residential broadband, which performed well this quarter. It was only a few years ago that investors feared Comcast and other cable operators would become major disruptors to the wireless industry, destroying margins and spiking industry churn. It’s no longer “too early” … Continue reading What Is Comcast’s Wireless Strategy And When Will It Break-Even?
Last week, 7 economists called for a review of Makan Delrahim’s pending and conditional approval of T-Mobile’s acquisition of Sprint. (Link) As head of the DOJ’s Antitrust Division and a Trump appointee, Delrahim has been no stranger to scrutiny. A judge still needs to sign off on the Delrahim deal, as required under the Tunney Act of 1974. This typically occurs without incident. The Sprint/T-Mobile deal, however, has been anything but typical. What now? Makan Delrahim, the antitrust head of … Continue reading Should Delrahim and Sprint Shareholders Worry About A Tunney Act Review?
The latest press reports claim that SoftBank is considering another $5 billion investment into WeWork. We do not expect that to be well received by investors. SoftBank’s existing $9 billion investment in WeWork and subsequent meltdown has already triggered concerns about SoftBank’s broader investment portfolio. The bail-out of WeWork will continue to feed that negative news cycle for SoftBank, only to be followed by what we estimate could be a $3 – $4 billion write-down on the investment. While that’s … Continue reading The WeWork Debacle Has Damaged SoftBank’s Reputation More Than Its Value