Podcasts – Page 2 – LightShed Partners

Ep. 301: The AI Hollywood Horror Story, Ellison Needs to Go $35+ and Slater Exit Foreshadows Live Nation Deal

[0:00] Kryptonite.
[1:53] Getting stuffed in a trash can builds character.
[3:48] Breaking news! AI is coming faster than you think.
[6:20] Apple delays an improved Siri, again.
[9:17] Gail Slater exits. Is DOJ–LYV settlement next?
[18:49] Ticketmaster giving musicians the power to kill off scalpers.
[21:39] WBD unlikely to risk split, unless PSKY goes above $35.
[27:47] Will AI be able to make something truly original like Walter Goggins’ White Lotus scene?
[32:39] Is Netflix making a mistake buying a studio as AI upends content creation?
[36:08] Anthropic’s IPO is coming.
[37:34] Trump is inherently unpredictable.
[39:40] YouTube TV’s skinny bundles will cannibalize MVPDs.
[41:55] Waymo scales fast. Uber and Lyft should worry. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[44;33] Dolan is ready for lots of Spheres.
[46:21] OpenAI turned on ads because it needs the money.
[50:02] Is OpenAI preparing to replicate Suno and Udio?
[51:38] Spotify is clearly getting ready to rollout AI creation tools.
[52:28] T-Mobile drops KPI theater and follows the money.
[58:02] Biometric verification could fuel advertising ecosystem.
[1:01:20] Meta may be a monster, but don’t dismiss the strength of AppLovin’s ad tech.
[1:02:31] Prediction markets will be decided by the Supreme Court, not Congress.
[1:03:55] The Saudis are not walking from the EA deal.
[1:05:10] I Don’t Want to Wait.

Ep. 300: Anthropic Wins The Super Bowl, Netflix Escapes Unscathed and Trump May End Scalping

[0:00] Shots.
[1:34] Rich’s Senate appearance upstaged by the Monopoly Man.
[7:24] Final call: Pats or Seahawks?
[8:42] 300 straight weeks of LightShed Festivus and counting.
[12:33] Anthropic already won best Super Bowl commercial(s).
[15:13] Why did Altman feel compelled to respond to Anthropic’s ads?
[17:40] The Oracle stock chart does not bode well for higher PSKY bid.
[20:43] If Netflix is a monopoly, how is YouTube No. 1 across TV and streaming?
[23:20] Why is the analyst community still convinced Paramount wins WBD battle?
[25:56] Apple is the anti-AI trade.
[27:20] Trump’s price caps would crush StubHub’s business model
[31:20] AI cannot magically turn bad video creators into good ones.
[34:55] DOJ appeals Google case seeking actual monopoly remedies.
[40:10] SpaceX gets the xAI halo now, Tesla maybe later.
[45:17] Elon partners when it works and builds when it does not.
[50:30] Carriers are hedging Starlink risk, but MVNO feels inevitable.
[51:33] Will Josh D’Amaro push Disney to take creative risk?
[57:19] The Schulman Effect at Verizon feels very familiar to his PayPal legacy.
[1:02:20] It’s 2026 and we’re still launching RSNs?
[1:04:05] Waymo raises capital while Uber reframes risk. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[1:08:20] Snap’s future now depends entirely on Specs.
[1:09:48] Roblox is an AI winner, not a casualty.
[1:13:17] Will competition actually dent AppLovin’s growth story?
[1:15:27] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:18:30] Injected with a Poison.

Ep. 299: OpenAI Rushing IPO and Advertising, Formation of a Musk Empire and Trump Unlikely to Care Who Wins WBD

[0:00] Aperture.
[1:20] Nobody tell Senator Blackburn – we know someone besides a scalper who got Harry Styles onsale tix.
[3:33] Is a new Disney CEO announcement coming Monday morning?
[5:00] Production issues aside, UFC 324 was a strong start for Paramount.
[10:07] LightShed loves the Musk empire consolidation.
[11:56] Tesla’s full pivot to autonomy goes well beyond self-driving cars.
[14:45] Zuck is overinvesting for optionality, but could he do it cheaper like Elon?
[20:01] Advertisers will fly blind early, but OpenAI needs to invest in ad tech.
[21:34] OpenAI suddenly feels threatened.
[22:21] Google’s personalization makes Atlas a tough switch (as long as agentic Chrome improves).
[27:43] Roblox’s social flywheel and own AI progress mitigates the threat from Project Genie.
[32:17] Fascinating that YouTube is powering BOTH Gemini and OpenAI results.
[34:10] Apple’s iPhone boom hides growing dependence on Google AI.
[37:23] The more Trump speaks in circles, the less likely he looks to touch WBD regulatory review.
[41:10] Rich heads to DC for WBD/Netflix hearing.
[42:04] Too many buyers for Discovery Global’s cable nets to pretend it is worthless.
[46:26] Comcast is a buyer, not a seller and Brian is never giving up the Olympics.
[50:26] 1 million subs is solid start for Paramount+, but they need more to justify UFC investment.
[54:01] Waymo’s airport win and safety setback, while Tesla goes all-in. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[55:49] If Snap builds something good, Meta will copy it.
[57:20] Breaking out Specs’ financials is a critical change for the better from Snap.
[58:03] Why last Friday’s hearing brought LYV/DOJ closer to a settlement.
[1:01:47] The Trade Desk’s revolving door of management should spook investors.
[1:02:22] Should revenue take a backseat to subscriber growth?
[1:07:39] Legacy media moving into vertical video is better late than never.
[109:34] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:11:01] Sign of the Times.

Ep. 298: OpenAI at a Crossroads, Netflix Feels the Pressure, Gemini Feels Unstoppable and Tesla Crosses an Autonomy Milestone

[0:00] White Winter Hymnal.
[1:20] Let the kids go sledding Monday.
[5:20] Paramount extends tender in hopes of beating Netflix to regulatory approval
[7:02] Linear TV, FAST, YouTube and even Substack TV compete with Netflix.
[8:30] Netflix’s EPS call in 3 words: competition, competition, competition.
[12:48] Dish’s Disney antitrust suit has implications well beyond day passes.
[14:28] Tesla’s unsupervised milestone and autonomy’s value. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[21:24] Altman’s Netflix-esque ads pivot is about revenue and cash flow.
[25:09] Google’s Gemini playbook is win AI battle first, monetize elsewhere (for now).
[29:54] Can OpenAI survive the next five years?
[35:27] Will it be socially acceptable to wear a device that watches everything?
[40:42] Excited for the new US TikTok led by Adam Presser.
[42:30] TikTok Shop with logistics is coming for Amazon.
[43:57] Dolan’s mini-Sphere vision looks like a boon for investors.
[49:20] Where should LightShed put our mini-Sphere?
[50:53] If NFL adds a weekly international game, YouTube is the logical buyer.
[53:47] UFC fighter Gaethje’s comments bode well for TKO’s margins.
[55:02] Prediction markets: another sign this is heading to the Supreme Court.
[56:10] Penn Station could be a key catalyst for MSGE.
[58:20] Threads drives clicks, but is there meaningful time spent/engagement?
[1:01:20] Skating.

Ep. 297: Google Looks Unstoppable, Paramount Trying Everything But Paying More and How NASCAR Could Rev TKO

[0:00] Cassidy.
[2:10] A somber week in Brandonland.
[5:08] Paramount continues to do everything, except raise its bid.
[10:01] Netflix going all-cash would remove a potential Paramount regulatory advantage.
[12:01] Trump’s whims create a regulatory wild card.
[15:20] Why MSGE could be the safest stock to own in live entertainment.
[18:20] Apple deal helps Google maintain its monopoly, but will Siri still disappoint?
[22:30] How can OpenAI compete with Google’s Personal Intelligence?
[29:03] An OpenAI AirPod feels like the first product in a lineup, not a one-of-one.
[31:51] Zuck solves problems by hiring the “right” people.
[38:46] Only January and already 2 new states moving against ticket brokers
[40:02] Why the World Cup could become 2026’s Eras Tour.
[41:18] Verizon rolls back unlocking rules now; price hikes loom next.
[44:08] Nascar would fit perfectly under the TKO umbrella.
[46:27] Starlink expansion makes the wireless bundle a bigger threat.
[49:09] EchoStar’s SpaceX upside offset by what liabilities stick.
[52:33] New York looks poised to target Roblox through legislation.
[54:43] Spotify’s one dollar hike shows it is still thinking long term.
[55:55] Spotify’s video fitness opportunity feels obvious.
[57:31] It is getting harder to pretend Polymarket is not betting.
[1:00:01] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:04:20] The Music Never Stopped.

Ep. 296: How Paramount Could Win, Nvidia Shaping Autonomy’s Future and All Eyes on Dish Disney Lawsuit

[0:00] Dramophone.
[2:01] Another CES, another Brandon trip to urgent care.
[3:15] Rich finally made it to Sphere (but was on his phone half the time).
[12:10] Rich’s favorite person “crashed” our CES party.
[14:42] Why Versant is a poor comp for Discovery Global.
[17:01] How could Paramount change the WBD Board’s view?
[21:44] Rebooting MTV sounds impossible.
[24:38] Apple fast-tracked Cook succession while critics cried blasphemy.
[26:58] Are we all going to share our complete medical history with ChatGPT?
[31:55] Brands need to spend on Reddit to influence how they show up in LLM results.
[33:39] Nvidia goes vertical; Amazon should cut bait on Zoox. More CES highlights on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[41:53] Amazon wants to help sports media deliver a better advertising experience for fans.
[43:48] Vertical video on Disney+ is a great idea to help engagement challenges.
[46:39] Another week, another sign prediction markets are destined for the Supreme Court.
[48:18] Mute the announcers? Sure. Replace them entirely? Even better.
[51:24] Roblox needs age verification even if engagement takes a short-term hit.
[54:02] Dish’s Disney antitrust suit could have major industry-wide bundle/packaging implications.
[56:26] Sponsorship will add another leg to Sphere’s 2026 growth.
[58:50] Fubo + RSNs is not a rescue plan.
[1:00:46] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:02:30] Over the Rainbow.

Ep. 295: WBD’s Never Ending Story, ChatGPT Still Dominant and an AI Pen is DOA

[0:00] Friday I’m in Love.
[1:47] Our 2026 resolutions.
[6:05] Rich may be an influencer, but not a paid one.
[9:23] Does threatening to sue WBD Board imply Paramount won’t raise bid?
[17:18] Who really controls the TikTok algorithm now?
[18:57] Legacy media weakens, Middle East capital steps in.
[20:20] Has Epic transformed Universal into a destination park?
[23:38] Waymo stalled. Tesla did not. More tomorrow on Autonomy Markets.
[27:33] Real media will be easier to fingerprint than fake AI media. Welcome to 2026.
[31:17] Calling it now: if the Jony Ive and OpenAI device is a pen, it’s DOA.
[35:33] GPT ads need visible labels to ensure consumer trust.
[36:35] Everyone’s worried about Chat GPT declines, but share is still 75%.
[38:06] Threads surprisingly effective in driving downloads more than engagement.
[40:15] SpaceX chasing telco disruption, not an IPO shortcut.
[41:46] Even Amazon needs Netflix to drive catalog viewership.
[46:35] Paramount+ needs great UFC content in 2026 to drive subs, even with discounting.
[48:37] Will 2026 be the year leagues finally clean up their RSN mess?
[51:43] OSBs need prediction markets as a hedge, but this still ends at the Supreme Court.
[53:10] Listener question: Should Disgrace of the Week survive 2026, or is it time for positivity?
[54:20] Close to Me.

Ep. 294: Reviewing LightShed’s 2025 Predictions

[0:00] Auld Lang Syne.
[3:23] Trump Saves TikTok.
[6:15] No “Extended Super Cycle” for Apple as its Flavor of AI Flops.
[7:10] Rupert Murdoch Loses Appeals to Alter Trust, Begins Process to Unwind Fox.
[8:53] Search Behavior Continues its Move into Apps, Away from Google.
[10:10] Sports Rights Find New Homes: UFC, WWE PLE’s and Formula One.
[13:10] NFL Adds 18th Regular Season Game for 2027, Netflix Acquires Package.
[14:13] Waymo Expands Service to Highways and Airports, Announces Plans to Enter New York and Partners with Lyft.
[16:02] Trade Desk’s Ventura Partners with TCL and Walmart.
[17:28] Live Nation Settles With the DOJ.
[19:41] Cable Broadband Sub Losses Moderate but No Consolidation.
[20:35] Max Rebrands to HBO, No Activist Emerges.
[23:07] No SVOD Streaming Platform Mergers.
[24:07] Uber Partners with Wayve to Fund an Autonomous Fleet in London.
[25:44] AppLovin E-commerce Expansion Drives Continued Explosive Growth.
[26:55] Pharmaceutical Ads Banned on TV, Could Fuel Station Group M&A.
[28:35] David Ellison Invests Aggressively in Paramount’s Future.
[30:29] Starlink’s Satellite to Phone Service Moves Beyond Messaging, Adds 5 New Partners and Explores IoT Strategy.
[45:25] Should Have Known Better.

Ep. 293: The Ellison Guarantee Non-Guarantee, Trump’s Short Memory, and OpenAI’s Bubble Is Not Bursting

[0:00] Christmas With The Devil.
[2:10] Thank you Blumhouse for the swag.
[6:17] Rich once again blames his Spotify Wrapped on his kids.
The 12 Juiciest Nuggets from Warner Bros. Discovery’s 14D-9 Filing
The Three Critical Questions Paramount’s David Ellison Needs to Answer
[18:10] With Trump, goodwill only lasts until the next interaction.
[21:59] Who is “Company C”?
[25:50] Can YouTube buy WBD if they are not competitors?
[27:01] Discovery Global may have more value to someone else than PSKY admits.
[28:22] Activist or no activist, Comcast media deals cannot fix broadband.
[33:40] A Paramount NBCU tie up makes all the sense in the world, except for the egos.
[37:31] It’s absurd to pretend YouTube and Netflix are not competitors.
[40:55] Tesla robotaxi milestone meets California backlash. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[44:05] A 2026 prediction sneak peek: Live Nation and DOJ reach a settlement.
[48:32] If OpenAI’s bubble is bursting, why is the valuation up 50% in a couple of months?
[53:26] Can Meta come up with use cases to make Meta AI a must-use?
[58:19] Paramount+ is UFC’s reset button after ESPN+ stalled fan growth.
[1:04:04] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:08:55] Stand by Me.

Ep. 292: Paramount’s Uphill Battle, SpaceX IPO Preps for Liftoff and YouTube TV Shredding Bundle

[0:00] Mr. Brightside.
[1:31] It is not a good week to be a Michigan Man (or a Michigan Fan).
[7:12] Can Paramount top Netflix without an uneconomic bid?
[15:40] Why would Paramount lever up over 6x and use Middle East money?
[25:06] Trump’s only take on battle for WBD is what’s in it for Trump.
[27:22] Consumers win and traditional media loses as YouTube TV bundles shrink.
[33:30] SpaceX IPO is about scaling Starlink, not Mars.
[39:50] Disney’s increasingly complicated relationship with Google.
[41:10] Gemini’s image creator is simply better than ChatGPT’s.
[43:15] Don’t ask Altman to prove how Gemini was less impactful than feared.
[44:30] More publisher links in AI mode is a positive for Reddit.
[46:38] Rahm and Walt agree: parents need help preventing social media brain rot.
[50:56] Tesla poised to scale while rivals gamble on catch-up.
[52:45] Uber pitches calm while downplaying the inevitable AV storm. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[59:28] Spotify’s newest AI product launch only in New Zealand (for now).
[1:01:58] Pinterest enters the retail media (data) arena with tvScientific purchase.
[1:03:31] Feels unlikely gaming will take meaningful share from video on the big screen.
[1:05:40] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:08:39] Everybody Knows.