Podcasts – LightShed Partners

Ep. 327: AI’s Rapid Exec Turnover, Was Paramount Moving Anyway and Zuck’s Open Source Agenda

[0:00] Ray of Light.
[2:32] Of course Michigan Men decided freshmen no longer need grades.
[4:25] Rich did not give a quote for Bob Chapek’s book.
[5:57] The Knicks and Rangers going private feels less like if, than when.
[8:13] Iger buying the Lakers clears the stage for D’Amaro to define himself.
[10:43] Apple’s changing guard could finally revive innovation.
[13:50] Apple TV is finally licensing catalog!
[18:47] Altman’s enterprise ambitions led to OpenAI executive churn.
[25:30] Can Google regain AI leadership with Sergey Brin now in driver’s seat?
[27:25] Are Zuck’s motivations altruistic or competitive?
[30:31] Can Anthropic outrun competitive threats long enough to grow into its valuation?
[34:22] Is Paramount moving from California a threat or was it always the plan?
[41:26] Paramount wants behaviorial remedies, State AGs want structural remedies.
[50:10] Only in StubHub’s world does paying less for tickets hurt the fan.
[55:03] Zoox and Waymo turn Vegas into autonomy’s latest battleground. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[59:15] The open internet is dead.
[1:02:30] Sounds like SPHR and MSGE both want a NYC Sphere.
[1:07:27] Uber’s partners rack up miles ahead of life beyond Waymo.
[1:09:22] Will anyone bid for Lionsgate so it can start a sale process?
[1:11:11] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:13:45] Ray of Light.

Ep. 326: Paramount Acquisition in Jeopardy, Jeff Green’s Delusions and Zuck Enters the Coding Cage

[0:00] I’m Coming Out.
[1:55] Rich’s political transformation is complete.
[3:40] Theaters are so red hot that even Rich is going to the movies.
[7:57] Trade Desk is suffering from a weak macro that only effects the Trade Desk.
[11:30] AppLovin’s Foroughi owns the issues, Trade Desk’s Jeff Green blames others.
[14:22] Paramount is trying to win over public opinion, when only two people matter.
[21:20] If June 4, 2027 arrives without resolution, WBD takes the $7 billion and walks.
[23:27] SpaceX isn’t the only game in space.
[26:45] Telcos only help SpaceX by dismissing the threat.
[31:00] The AI wars are far from over, and Zuck just entered the cage.
[33:35] Hard to bet against Google, but they should be further along in AI.
[37:05] Is anyone that doesn’t like Phish actually walking around with a doughnut AI microphone/speaker?
[39:01] Siri still sucks. Does anyone care?
[43:48] Nvidia can’t save legacy auto. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[47:08] If the NFL rejiggers its packages in 2030, will there be enough for all the broadcast nets?
[52:06] Why Netflix might be Strauss Zelnick’s dream buyer for Take-Two.
[55:46] AI music tiers are coming… eventually.
[59:26] OpenAI is scaling its ad tech stack quickly.
[1:00:59] Snap’s ad business inflecting positively, but will it matter if Specs fail?
[1:04:52] Disney’s Josh D’Amaro came out swinging at Universal.
[1:07:00] Formula 1 is not for sale (yet).
[1:10:26] ESPN wants to be “the” sports TV viewing platform, but YouTube TV is winning.
[1:12:02] Broadcast TV consolidation is inevitable.
[1:15:20] It’s long past time for the Courts to set prediction markets’ house rules.
[1:18:30] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:20:45] Upside Down

Ep. 325: YouTube Ingests Sports, Peacock Joins the Majors and Waymo Exposed Uber’s Bench

[0:00] I Bet You Look Good On The Dancefloor.
[1:20] This is Brandon’s brain on earnings and Phish.
[5:17] Paramount conceded the PI battle to expedite the war for WBD.
[12:13] Waymo’s exit exposes Uber’s thin bench.
[16:20] Automakers ADAS embrace is the first step to privately owned autonomy.
[19:22] Why user growth and Google tension overshadowed Reddit’s blowout quarter.
[25:43] Meta’s silence on 2027 capex became the loudest part of earnings.
[28:30] Meta’s AI still feels bolted on, but do not bet against Zuck.
[31:28] Altman has OpenAI executing again and reiterates trillions in revenue goal.
[38:02] Will a better Siri matter or have consumers moved on?
[42:09] Will Peacock leapfrog to the #2 SVOD behind Netflix in 2027?
[45:40] Will YouTube’s Peacock agreement lessen Google’s desire to bid on sports rights?
[48:10] SpaceX wants a network without Verizon’s baggage.
[49:55] A New York Sphere is a stretch, but MSGE has tax reasons to try.
[52:56] YouTube TV is now the largest pay TV distributor in America.
[56:07] YouTube and YouTube TV are the sports aggregators, not ESPN.
[59:49] Will D’Amaro have his Brian Roberts moment and finally cut all linear TV loose?
[1:02:07] Forgotten EchoStar has a few more chess moves.
[1:04:45] Hard to believe HBO’s engagement is really that low.
[1:07:28] Will Roku’s content ambitions grow under Fox ownership?
[1:09:38] Enough scare tactics, AI labs must own what they built and what it does.
[1:12:09] When will Spotify’s AI music tier launch?
[1:15:03] Jake Paul is not Dana White yet, but he understands promotion.
[1:16:11] Amazon’s Zoox win clears path for Tesla’s Cybercab. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[1:18:09] Yet another Lionsgate studio acquisition story evaporates.
[1:19:01] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:20:02] I Wanna Be Yours.

Ep. 324: If Google Won’t Pay for Reddit Data, Someone Will, PSKY/WBD in Limbo and Comcast Can’t Get Its Story Straight

[0:00] Ha Ha Ha.
[3:33] Rich’s storytelling enters the Hall of Shame.
[9:43] The AI capex arms race has no end in sight.
[11:13] Google can self-fund the arms race. What exactly is OpenAI’s plan?
[13:10] How does AI control the uncontrollable?
[19:58] If Google/Gemini does not pay up for Reddit data, someone else will.
[25:11] There are no enemies in AI, only frenemies.
[27:25] Zuck will bring people closer together with AI (once he figures out how).
[31:06] As soon as Netflix gaming found product market fit, Amazon copied it.
[33:40] Bezos is right: Amazon should be leaning its entire AI stack on the big screen.
[36:24] All eyes on whether a Preliminary Injunction halts PSKY/WBD into 2027 and beyond.
[39:42] When will legacy media create original vertical video content?
[41:10] Elon not afraid to take real questions.
[42:51] Cybercab hotspot hints at a Tesla-SpaceX future.
[46:49] Is Universal Orlando losing share to Disney or is the local Florida economy weakening?
[51:26] We all know it’s on Brandon to ask Eric Baker about Andro.
[52:48] Aurora’s milestone, Tesla’s threat, and Waymo’s potential return. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[56:31] Spotify has barely touched the pricing lever its engagement earns.
[58:26] Stop us if you’ve heard this before: prediction markets need the Supreme Court.
[1:02:10] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:04:12] Drops of Jupiter.

Ep. 323: Paramount Contradicts Itself, Netflix Put Itself in the Penalty Box and Telco Finds a Floor

[0:00] Smoke on the Water.
[4:09] The last place we expected to hear “Knicks in Five.”
[8:53] PSKY/WBD TRO highly likely, but real fight will be the PI.
[13:30] PSKY claiming the deal adds no cable leverage contradicts its own thesis.
[16:17] Netflix’s wound was self-inflicted, but the punishment is getting silly.
[22:10] OpenAI’s smart speaker feels dead on arrival.
[27:01] Roblox keeps pulling away from the pack in AI game creation.
[29:32] SpaceX panic peaks as Telcos find a floor.
[33:53] Station cap repeal is good policy, but Nexstar/Tegna chilling M&A.
[35:44] A simpler, more focused OpenAI is a more dangerous OpenAI.
[38:20] Anyone claiming to know AI’s future in 2-3 years is lying.
[43:24] It was not a good week for StubHub’s Eric Baker.
[48:34] Is leaving Google search to fight AI scraping a kamikaze mission?
[50:23] Uber’s asset-light strategy keeps getting heavier. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[54:18] How much did the World Cup impact UFC viewership?
[56:34] Yawn, Lionsgate has been for sale for a decade or more.
[58:47] Will consumers talk to Spotify outside their cars?
[1:01:07] Repurposing Fandango is a long shot worth taking for Versant.
[1:03:50] Google’s Pinterest swing is very Zuck: easy to launch, hard to matter.
[1:04:55] Nobody predicted Love Island would be a prediction markets driver.
[1:06:27] Goodbye Gandler (link).
[1:08:01] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:09:03] Fire.

Ep. 322: NBCU Buy Take-Two, Sue the Scalpers and Take the NFL Money Now

[0:00] Macho Man.
[2:20] Who should Brandon fight in his MMA debut?
[5:45] Should the NFL strike now, before others take their money?
[9:25] The NFL can feed Netflix without replacing its existing media partners.
[12:15] Netflix knows that in the war for time spent, the biggest library with best algo wins.
[16:14] SpaceX’s space monopoly is about to size up.
[17:41] What’s next for SpaceX and EchoStar.
[21:59] AI’s price war favors whoever can afford to not make money.
[26:27] Agentic is inevitable, not imminent.
[28:33] The Sora-fication of Instagram is coming.
[32:25] Do you talk to your LLM?
[34:29] Enough is enough: speculative ticketing is a scam Congress needs to bury.
[37:02] Tesla hits Miami, Waymo goes robocop. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[39:31] Uber’s shaky sidekicks.
[41:13] Xbox’s “Netflix for gaming” was a strategic error from day one.
[43:20] GPT has copyright principles, until you ask it to remove a competitor’s watermark. (link, link)
[44:37] The most likely answer to NBCU’s gaming ambitions: Take-Two.
[47:14] Versant’s shopping spree shows where NBCU is headed.
[48:48] Reddit is so valuable to AI that brands are trying to poison it.
[51:46] Gaming gets its own real estate on Reddit.
[53:10] Paramount+ is about to learn exactly what its UFC license is worth.
[54:36] The PSKY/WBD deal’s legal threat is louder than it is strong.
[55:43] Disgrace of the Week.
[58:52] Total Eclipse of the Heart.

Ep. 321: NBCU Going Shopping Alone, SpaceX Builds Its Layer Cake and Debating the Netflix Catalyst

[0:00] Party in the U.S.A.
[3:06] Rich is learning to “pronunciate.”
[5:42] The spin was about stock price but NBCU can finally pursue acquisitions.
[12:45] Comcast-Charter: strategically obvious, not happening anytime soon.
[17:54] Peacock now offers Starz inside its app.
[19:32] Netflix stock needs a content spark, and maybe a new lighter.
[22:20] SpaceX’s mobile aspirations move beyond satellites.
[27:25] Dish bankruptcy clears path for long-awaited DirecTV merger.
[29:30] Telcos hike again while Apple upgrades stall.
[30:40] Paramount is not going to divest CNN.
[32:20] PSKY/WBD will close, just not on the timeline they wanted.
[33:02] Cybercab may be Tesla’s key; Uber and Waymo breakup in Phoenix. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[35:16] Zuck renting compute is the Elon playbook, not an AI white flag.
[37:49] Meta leaning on Gemini is not exactly screaming AI leadership.
[38:32] Zuck will take a shot at any big market leveraging his scale.
[39:53] AI clearly has real power in driving consumer behavior.
[42:43] Iger’s owner’s box ambitions add one more suitor to a market that only lifts MSGS.
[44:50] X Money may be too good to be true, but we’re trying it anyway.
[46:04] Roblox needs core games to grow up, but does the platform fit?
[47:31] Reddit finally ready to drive consumers directly to Reddit.
[50:40] If Disney attendance was solid, would nights really need discounting?
[52:15] Disgrace of the Week.
[54:30] Firework.

Ep. 320: Welcoming OpenAI to Cannes, Walmart Pressures Roku/Trade Desk and Netflix: The Platform

[0:00] Gypsy Queen.
[2:12] Disgrace of the Week.
[6:35] Brandon’s Apple Watch stages a cardio intervention.
[8:33] Tim Cook can’t resist one last supply chain power move for the road.
[11:11] Siri control exposes Apple’s monopoly muscle.
[12:55] More buzz on Starlink Mobile emerges.
[15:39] FCC auction winners loom.
[17:58] Can OpenAI reverse market share shifts before ringing the IPO bell?
[20:40] ChatGPT advertising emphasizes users first, advertisers second.
[22:59] Anthropic’s Alibaba claim strengthens case for China IP restrictions.
[26:54] The LLM disconnect: massive spending for intelligence many tasks don’t need.
[28:19] Creators and athletes took center stage at Cannes.
[29:54] Google is leaning on Gemini as its edge, tvOS included.
[31:38] Reddit’s authenticity only gets more valuable as AI slop floods the Internet.
[36:41] NY politicians are against auto safety. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[38:06] Rich should not be wearing Kylie’s Meta Raybans.
[39:20] Zuck’s nameless Snap dig: wearable first, magical second.
[40:00] Qualcomm pivots to the future and we will join them.
[42:47] Forget the base price; GTA’s real test is whether it can reinvigorate the broader games industry.
[44:44] How long will state lawsuits drag out the PSKY-WBD merger?
[46:20] How Walmart’s bold ad tech moves impact the competitive landscape.
[49:14] AppLovin’s self-serve push means no advertiser is too small anymore.
[50:55] OEM’s are facing a Foxconn moment.
[54:17] Expect 2-3 more TF1-style deals this year as Netflix becomes a platform.
[56:45] Fox can make Tubi a lot louder inside Roku’s front door.
[1:02:10] Polymarket made a great ad that says nothing about the sports betting laws they may be skirting.
[1:05:16] I Will Always Love You.

Ep. 319: Fox Rewrites Its Future, Specs’ Use Case Conundrum and Never Bet Against Zuck

[0:00] Empire State of Mind.
[7:05] Rich accosted Zuck at Freedom 250 and immediately asked about his protein intake.
[10:12] The Knicks gave the NBA a jolt. Can ratings keep partying?
[11:30] SpaceX’s trillion-dollar ambitions are fueled by its lofty valuation.
[15:01] Mock Zuck’s AI confidence all you want, nobody saw Anthropic coming either.
[18:20] Calling AI winners is premature when the leaderboard changes monthly.
[20:40] Apple’s ChatGPT threat will come with a cloud bill.
[23:12] EchoStar and SpaceX show how control enables long-term bets (like Dolan did with Sphere).
[29:03] On the Spectrum mobile.
[31:05] Snap’s Specs reveal fell flat, but we want to try them first.
[34:12] We knock execs for playing it safe. Credit to Fox for its bold Roku swing.
[38:50] Netflix does not need Roku to become the front door to streaming.
[42:41] No doubt GTA 6 is coming, the only mystery now is the price.
[44:11] Uber’s autonomy partners expand as Mobileye joins the race. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[46:18] The PSKY-WBD spread says DOJ approval was not the final boss.
[48:12] Paramount should have broadcast Freedom 250 on CBS.
[50:33] Apple’s price hikes test Tim Cook’s supply-chain halo.
[51:42] Dario made the regulatory bed he’s now going to lie in.
[53:07] Walt is hereby placed on a strict token minimization plan.
[55:40] Spotify Reserved is a real reason to pick Premium but comes with risks to LYV and SPOT.
[58:20] Does Grow a Garden 2’s tepid start mean last year’s viral magic faded?
[1:01:25] Sphere will need a continuous infusion of new content, not just one yellow brick road.
[1:04:01] What does a Disney superapp with both Hulu and ESPN even look like?
[1:06:48] Reddit, now with video.
[1:08:50] Disgrace of the Week
[1:10:53] Eric Baker, it’s time to outlaw spec ticketing.
[1:11:30] Welcome to New York City.

Ep. 318: Live Sports is the GOAT, Siri (Somehow) Still Disappoints and SpaceX Cleared for Launch

[0:00] Don’t Stop Believin’.
[1:30] Mike and the Mad Dog, LightShed edition.
[4:30] The power of live sports was on full display at MSG.
[6:07] SpaceX investors are betting the cloud leaves Earth.
[9:42] Apple Intelligence pitch underwhelms while Google clouds privacy.
[15:15] Paramount and the States lawyering up for battle.
[20:01] Ending sports leagues’ antitrust exemption would hurt consumers and players’ wallets.
[24:46] Restricting compute supply widens the AI divide.
[27:16] Follow Google’s Anthropic money to see where AI value actually pools.
[29:25] No one else can build all three legs of AI’s stool like Google.
[31:46] Does OpenAI cutting token costs have an ulterior motive?
[35:20] Is OpenAI handing the consumer crown to Gemini?
[39:01] So OpenAI wants government money after all.
[40:28] Getting crushed in consoles is forcing Microsoft to change the game.
[43:55] Another week, another crack in the Trade Desk story.
[46:08] MSGE investors are getting their own banner: a Theater-sized check.
[47:24] Snap ramping spend to market Specs, even before consumers know if they want them.
[50:21] Spotify is using live events to chase bigger screens and ad dollars.
[52:26] Disgrace of the Week.
[54:32] Ain’t No Mountain High Enough.