Podcasts – LightShed Partners

Ep. 336: Tesla Takes Flight, Netflix Goes Back to the Future and AI Valuations Hallucinate

[0:00] The Power Of Love.
[1:43] Will the Roadster pull Rich out of Tesla retirement?
[5:58] Tesla delivers as Roadster lifts off and Cybercab rolls out.
[9:20] Peter Rice loves the NFL and the need to take creative risk.
[16:40] How will the NFL repackage its games for 2030 and beyond?
[20:14] One soft month and AI investors are already writing the obituary.
[25:45] Benchmarks are cute, but focus on the AI people actually use.
[28:30] Valuing Anthropic is tough when the AI landscape evolves weekly.
[30:16] Muse could be Meta’s SMB secret weapon.
[32:48] America has entered the open weight chat.
[35:22] Why is Gemini asking consumers to choose between chat and task?
[39:13] Lyft rolls up its sleeves while Uber hires help. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[41:34] From software is eating the world to software is dead.
[43:47] Better late than never: Epic finally wakes up to AI.
[45:08] Xbox gets it right by embracing the present and letting go of the past.
[46:47] Telcos’ claims about SpaceX are full of holes.
[49:42] AT&T braces for SpaceX, while Verizon may need to welcome it.
[54:42] Hollywood finally opens the creator economy memo YouTube sent years ago.
[57:05] Is Disney’s Character.AI bid about experiences more than mobile content?
[59:59] The complacency bill comes due at Charter and Comcast.
[1:03:05] Is Netflix plotting a major push into microdramas?
[1:04:47] Did the Brewers just save MLB from a salary cap?
[1:07:31] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:09:10] Back In Time.

Ep. 335: SpaceX Mobile Reckoning, Skydance Does Not Lack Confidence and AI’s ARR Jitters

[0:00] X Gon’ Give It To Ya.
[3:15] Rich’s trainer is turning his t-shirts into compression gear.
[5:21] SpaceX’s mobile ambitions suddenly taken seriously.
[8:26] Incumbents needed a plan yesterday. SpaceX already has one.
[13:30] Will David Ellison play to win, while legacy media CEOs manage the decline?
[23:04] Consumers love AI. But paying for it is another story.
[25:25] Calling peak AI spending before mass adoption is a little premature.
[27:12] OpenAI’s supposed ARR cut was a whole lot of noise over nothing.
[29:20] Anthropic’s biggest customers are building their way out of relying on Claude.
[30:47] Elon bets that the right model beats the best model.
[35:01] Muse is a reminder that consumers buy the experience, not the benchmarks.
[36:50] It’s only a matter of time before Amazon strikes a Muse deal.
[39:58] Lyft’s autonomy future could start behind the scenes. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[42:25] Uber orders catering but investors are hungry for autonomy.
[46:02] Apple’s new phones can’t hide that Siri still sucks.
[49:11] UFC fighter pay complaints are nothing new, but a credible #2 is.
[50:56] Brand advertising becomes more important in an agentic world.
[53:28] Turning away an aggressive advertiser is a flex only Meta can pull off.
[56:05] Would you stop watching a great video just because AI made it?
[59:03] Relax, DC Sphere is not in jeopardy.
[1:02:27] Netflix is trimming the fat, while revenues keep growing double-digits.
[1:05:01] The creator economy wars will be media’s biggest story of 2027.
[1:06:37] YouTube’s sports ambitions are centered on scaling YouTube Premium.
[1:08:52] NFL: it’s time for SCOTUS to settle the legality of prediction markets.
[1:11:19] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:13:13] STORM II.

Ep. 334: Ellison Hires a Fixer, Dots Cedes Consumers to Muse and Dario Pulls a Bonta

[0:00] L.A. Woman.
[4:12] Only Autonomy can fix Rich’s Uber rating.
[8:02] Is Ynon Kreiz Ellison’s Gunnar?
[11:53] NBCU should be blowing up Cindy Holland’s phone.
[14:08] Pluto morphing into Tubi deserved far more attention.
[15:17] OpenAI’s balance sheet isn’t ready for a Dots vs. Muse consumer brawl.
[18:45] AI agents will cancel the subscriptions you forgot you had.
[23:57] Over/under: 2-3 years until most Americans actively use AI agents.
[27:02] Meta bringing agentic AI to SMBs for free.
[29:43] Why is Gemini MIA in the agent battle?
[33:09] Anthropic’s S-1 leak highlights customer concentration risk.
[34:52] Token bills only make sense if productivity keeps pace.
[36:29] Dario’s Bonta-esque tone change.
[37:50] Why are Americans not excited about AI’s benefits?
[40:30] Apple’s next chapter needs products, not promises.
[41:31] Is the creator economy Disney+’s missing growth engine?
[44:50] Imitation is the sincerest proof that Netflix’s creator push is working.
[46:17] Telcos dismiss SpaceX while bracing for its arrival.
[50:20] Cost cuts lift Verizon, but spectrum limits its future.
[54:51] Trade Desk has become the Eeyore of ad tech.
[56:18] Uber’s bench is showing promise. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[57:52] Ticketmaster’s changes have made the ongoing lawsuit look pointless.
[1:00:02] College sports’ greed is absurd: nickel-and-dime students today, lose fans tomorrow.
[1:03:05] Reddit increasingly focused on making Reddit a destination.
[1:04:45] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:08:02] L.A. Woman.

Ep. 333: Zuck’s Steve Jobs Moment, Google Makes Elon Look Prescient and YouTube Threatened by Netflix

[0:00] Blessings.
[2:50] Miami’s schedule maker is making an early case for Disgrace of the Year.
[4:23] The PSKY/WBD antitrust clown show is (hopefully) over.
[9:50] Is Meta’s Muse the operating system of the future?
[15:20] The AI spending spree is finally giving Apple’s OS something to fear.
[18:54] Pacing the frontier works until the frontier starts eating your business.
[20:11] Amazon can ghost Meta Muse; Meta has everyone else on speed dial.
[23:31] Why the agentic era could make brand advertising more critical.
[28:29] Zuck’s Jobs moment won’t go unanswered by the rest of Big Tech.
[32:47] Don’t sleep on SpaceX in the AI race.
[36:45] Google’s orbital AI test validates Elon’s vision.
[37:50] AI is getting cheaper at a pace past breakthroughs could only envy.
[38:50] The unlimited liability risk facing frontier AI companies.
[45:20] Taking stock of autonomy in Texas. #Fieldwork. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[52:05] Rooting for Tesla and Waymo, while calling both out.
[53:10] Katzenberg to Hollywood: stop fearing AI and start creating with it.
[57:30] YouTube is acting like Netflix has finally become a real threat.
[59:50] Disney’s streaming menu now looks like one giant combo meal.
[1:05:12] Fox isn’t buying Roku’s open platform just to lock rival streamers out.
[1:07:41] Does streaming’s bundling push imply #goodluckstreaming?
[1:09:32] Bravoverse brings a TikTok-like immersive experience.
[1:11:28] Has Ellison been studying NBCU’s streaming strategy?
[1:13:20] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:16:13] Three Little Birds.

Ep. 332: The AI Pace Car Has No Driver, AG Bonta Feels the Heat and Our Hands-On Review of SPECS

[0:00] Bugs.
[1:26] Brandon’s unusual anniversary gift comes with a few extra guests.
[4:52] Who would set the speed of the frontier’s pace car?
[17:30] Lina gets it right: labs’ financial liability for AI harm is one check and balance.
[20:29] We all agree: AI labs need independent safety evaluators.
[24:32] Can we thread the needle between US AI safety and staying ahead of China?
[26:56] Open source taking share as frontier models are commoditized between leapfrogs.
[28:48] As frontier economics wobble, will the harness give users a reason to stay?
[31:30] Nobody needs the frontier to keep racing more than Jensen.
[34:21] Tesla has the spotlight, but Waymo still has the scale.
[36:13] EU youth crackdown goes well beyond social media, impacting games and chatbots.
[40:06] RDC made clear Roblox wants its revenue to quickly age up.
[43:09] Rich’s first-hand review of SPECS.
[46:11] Dropping the camera may be how Meta gets everyone wearing Ray-Bans.
[49:01] AI negotiators pressure telcos, but hardly spell their demise.
[52:30] The agentic assistant winner will be whoever can capture the normies.
[55:44] Robotaxi land grab accelerates from Texas to Tokyo. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[59:09] Is Bonta about to cave to Paramount under extreme pressure?
[1:01:55] The platform-ization of Netflix is full steam ahead.
[1:05:30] Amazon is working its way into every corner of the ad stack.
[1:07:14] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:09:12] Bedbugs.

Ep. 331: Human Extinction Makes the S1, Apple Still Lacks Intelligence and Muse/Grok Bot First Impressions

[0:00] Jesus, Etc.
[1:31] Never Forget.
[3:59] Will world extinction be an Anthropic S-1 risk factor?
[13:42] Apple’s hardware design comeback still can’t hide its AI gap.
[19:22] Early days for Grok Bot and Muse, but the promise is obvious.
[26:48] Is there enough revenue to support open weight inference?
[33:35] Does the NFL have to eliminate a package to maximize media rights value?
[39:35] Kabletown’s rational demise.
[46:21] Labels want AI music upside without being overwhelmed by AI slop.
[53:01] Jason Calacanis is this week’s special guest on Autonomy Markets.
[56:43] Could anyone but Fox have pulled off the Fox One streaming strategy?
[1:01:08] Fox/Roku gets a DOJ second request that PSKY/WBD somehow avoided.
[1:04:39] Doubtful that future tax changes derail the Knicks and Rangers go-private math.
[1:06:54] Rich will be in LA Wednesday to put Specs on his face. Verdict to follow.
[1:08:19] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:13:10] New York, New York.

Ep. 330: Jensen’s Open Source Defense, The Truth About Cybercabs and Prediction Markets Prepare for SCOTUS

[0:00] Gloria.
[1:54] Rich missed a prime t-shirt opportunity.
[2:42] Spotify AI is learning how to make Walt happy.
[7:06] Astra is the best AI model until the next best model arrives.
[10:07] Consumer inertia is real, but enterprises will switch models for a better price.
[14:04] Zuck’s AI wedge is simple: undercut everyone.
[16:47] Jensen hedges frontier labs vertical integration risk with Hugging Face acquisition.
[20:33] OpenAI not just winning the benchmarks, they are finally also focusing on real world solutions.
[22:17] Cybercab is live. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[30:17] Uber is buying time while Tesla and Waymo run away with it.
[32:50] Amazon’s Zoox lands at Vegas airport but still rides on rails.
[36:21] Elon’s only real revenge on OpenAI is beating them.
[37:40] Does copyright matter in the Trump Admin’s race to win the AI war?
[42:04] Big Tech keeps winning the fights investors already priced in as losses.
[45:06] Paramount shifts to lobbying State AGs as settlement talks have gone nowhere.
[50:04] Are Prediction Markets finally heading to the Supreme Court?
[55:02] Did Big Tech move red just in time to start moving blue again?
[57:33] Trade Desk is the gift that keeps on giving.
[58:26] Uber’s employee survey became a layoff list.
[59:17] Vertical video on the TV is working for YouTube, can it work for Meta?
[1:02:20] Can Ternus reinvigorate Apple?
[1:06:24] Artists are making AI music, even if they won’t discuss it publicly.
[1:09:00] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:12:30] Gloria.

Ep. 329: Altman Discovers Inertia, Dario Goes Full Ali G and Zuck Opens Regulatory Floodgates

[0:00] Jolene.
[0:45] RIP to the truly genuine Dolly Parton.
[6:57] Meta wrote a check that just made every other platform a defendant.
[15:31] Subscription is YouTube’s next growth lever.
[18:21] Apple’s foldable could surprise and shine as other bets stumble.
[23:13] Sam Altman just realized old habits die hard.
[28:40] Gates wants the US to regulate AI, China would like to thank him.
[30:19] Dario goes full Ali G while sizing Anthropic’s TAM.
[34:50] Google is getting more aggressive in enterprise AI.
[37:25] Tesla’s future launches in September. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[43:32] GTA VI leaks hurt Rockstar’s mood, not sales.
[44:31] NVIDIA accelerates SpaceX’s path to orbital data centers.
[49:10] Paramount may have to go to trial to avoid onerous structural remedies.
[58:40] Name a frontier lab that won’t be vertically integrated in three years.
[1:01:17] Netflix did not build TF1 tech without bigger platform ambitions.
[1:03:37] Google throws publishers a bone with new AI Mode carousels.
[1:05:08] Ackman shows why Ticketmaster takes the blame for scalper’s abuses.
[1:09:13] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:11:01] Islands In the Stream.

Ep. 328: Cybercab is Coming, AI’s Reddit Reliance Without Citation, Anthropic Prepares IPO

[0:00] Cocaine.
[3:17] We Are! State Pen!
[5:42] Will Paramount offer structural remedies or take its chances in court?
[11:58] Tesla drops clue about an imminent Cybercab rollout.
[18:20] Fake studies won’t stop autonomy.
[19:42] Every major AI player’s philosophy conveniently matches its place in the ecosystem.
[23:46] AI leaderboard is changing too fast to pick winners.
[28:15] Do not sleep on Meta’s SMB AI ambitions.
[30:41] Do not confuse reliance on Reddit with citations of Reddit.
[34:15] Ergen adds another layer to a cake made for SpaceX.
[38:40] The Knicks and Rangers spin is step one on the road to going private.
[42:05] Will every NFL broadcast net still have the NFL in 2030?
[48:07] Serve’s post-Uber rebound with DoorDash and Grubhub. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[49:55] Uber counters bad press with a wave of partner developments.
[52:23] AI is about to flood audio with content, and Spotify wins.
[55:30] YouTube’s sports ambitions are far bigger than investors appreciate.
[57:57] So YouTube does care if creators migrate to Netflix.
[1:00:02] Carr digs in against Disney.
[1:02:21] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:03:41] Jesus Just Left Chicago.

Ep. 327: AI’s Rapid Exec Turnover, Was Paramount Moving Anyway and Zuck’s Open Source Agenda

[0:00] Ray of Light.
[2:32] Of course Michigan Men decided freshmen no longer need grades.
[4:25] Rich did not give a quote for Bob Chapek’s book.
[5:57] The Knicks and Rangers going private feels less like if, than when.
[8:13] Iger buying the Lakers clears the stage for D’Amaro to define himself.
[10:43] Apple’s changing guard could finally revive innovation.
[13:50] Apple TV is finally licensing catalog!
[18:47] Altman’s enterprise ambitions led to OpenAI executive churn.
[25:30] Can Google regain AI leadership with Sergey Brin now in driver’s seat?
[27:25] Are Zuck’s motivations altruistic or competitive?
[30:31] Can Anthropic outrun competitive threats long enough to grow into its valuation?
[34:22] Is Paramount moving from California a threat or was it always the plan?
[41:26] Paramount wants behaviorial remedies, State AGs want structural remedies.
[50:10] Only in StubHub’s world does paying less for tickets hurt the fan.
[55:03] Zoox and Waymo turn Vegas into autonomy’s latest battleground. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[59:15] The open internet is dead.
[1:02:30] Sounds like SPHR and MSGE both want a NYC Sphere.
[1:07:27] Uber’s partners rack up miles ahead of life beyond Waymo.
[1:09:22] Will anyone bid for Lionsgate so it can start a sale process?
[1:11:11] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:13:45] Ray of Light.