Podcasts – LightShed Partners

Ep. 330: Jensen’s Open Source Defense, The Truth About Cybercabs and Prediction Markets Prepare for SCOTUS

[0:00] Gloria.
[1:54] Rich missed a prime t-shirt opportunity.
[2:42] Spotify AI is learning how to make Walt happy.
[7:06] Astra is the best AI model until the next best model arrives.
[10:07] Consumer inertia is real, but enterprises will switch models for a better price.
[14:04] Zuck’s AI wedge is simple: undercut everyone.
[16:47] Jensen hedges frontier labs vertical integration risk with Hugging Face acquisition.
[20:33] OpenAI not just winning the benchmarks, they are finally also focusing on real world solutions.
[22:17] Cybercab is live. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[30:17] Uber is buying time while Tesla and Waymo run away with it.
[32:50] Amazon’s Zoox lands at Vegas airport but still rides on rails.
[36:21] Elon’s only real revenge on OpenAI is beating them.
[37:40] Does copyright matter in the Trump Admin’s race to win the AI war?
[42:04] Big Tech keeps winning the fights investors already priced in as losses.
[45:06] Paramount shifts to lobbying State AGs as settlement talks have gone nowhere.
[50:04] Are Prediction Markets finally heading to the Supreme Court?
[55:02] Did Big Tech move red just in time to start moving blue again?
[57:33] Trade Desk is the gift that keeps on giving.
[58:26] Uber’s employee survey became a layoff list.
[59:17] Vertical video on the TV is working for YouTube, can it work for Meta?
[1:02:20] Can Ternus reinvigorate Apple?
[1:06:24] Artists are making AI music, even if they won’t discuss it publicly.
[1:09:00] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:12:30] Gloria.

Ep. 329: Altman Discovers Inertia, Dario Goes Full Ali G and Zuck Opens Regulatory Floodgates

[0:00] Jolene.
[0:45] RIP to the truly genuine Dolly Parton.
[6:57] Meta wrote a check that just made every other platform a defendant.
[15:31] Subscription is YouTube’s next growth lever.
[18:21] Apple’s foldable could surprise and shine as other bets stumble.
[23:13] Sam Altman just realized old habits die hard.
[28:40] Gates wants the US to regulate AI, China would like to thank him.
[30:19] Dario goes full Ali G while sizing Anthropic’s TAM.
[34:50] Google is getting more aggressive in enterprise AI.
[37:25] Tesla’s future launches in September. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[43:32] GTA VI leaks hurt Rockstar’s mood, not sales.
[44:31] NVIDIA accelerates SpaceX’s path to orbital data centers.
[49:10] Paramount may have to go to trial to avoid onerous structural remedies.
[58:40] Name a frontier lab that won’t be vertically integrated in three years.
[1:01:17] Netflix did not build TF1 tech without bigger platform ambitions.
[1:03:37] Google throws publishers a bone with new AI Mode carousels.
[1:05:08] Ackman shows why Ticketmaster takes the blame for scalper’s abuses.
[1:09:13] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:11:01] Islands In the Stream.

Ep. 328: Cybercab is Coming, AI’s Reddit Reliance Without Citation, Anthropic Prepares IPO

[0:00] Cocaine.
[3:17] We Are! State Pen!
[5:42] Will Paramount offer structural remedies or take its chances in court?
[11:58] Tesla drops clue about an imminent Cybercab rollout.
[18:20] Fake studies won’t stop autonomy.
[19:42] Every major AI player’s philosophy conveniently matches its place in the ecosystem.
[23:46] AI leaderboard is changing too fast to pick winners.
[28:15] Do not sleep on Meta’s SMB AI ambitions.
[30:41] Do not confuse reliance on Reddit with citations of Reddit.
[34:15] Ergen adds another layer to a cake made for SpaceX.
[38:40] The Knicks and Rangers spin is step one on the road to going private.
[42:05] Will every NFL broadcast net still have the NFL in 2030?
[48:07] Serve’s post-Uber rebound with DoorDash and Grubhub. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[49:55] Uber counters bad press with a wave of partner developments.
[52:23] AI is about to flood audio with content, and Spotify wins.
[55:30] YouTube’s sports ambitions are far bigger than investors appreciate.
[57:57] So YouTube does care if creators migrate to Netflix.
[1:00:02] Carr digs in against Disney.
[1:02:21] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:03:41] Jesus Just Left Chicago.

Ep. 327: AI’s Rapid Exec Turnover, Was Paramount Moving Anyway and Zuck’s Open Source Agenda

[0:00] Ray of Light.
[2:32] Of course Michigan Men decided freshmen no longer need grades.
[4:25] Rich did not give a quote for Bob Chapek’s book.
[5:57] The Knicks and Rangers going private feels less like if, than when.
[8:13] Iger buying the Lakers clears the stage for D’Amaro to define himself.
[10:43] Apple’s changing guard could finally revive innovation.
[13:50] Apple TV is finally licensing catalog!
[18:47] Altman’s enterprise ambitions led to OpenAI executive churn.
[25:30] Can Google regain AI leadership with Sergey Brin now in driver’s seat?
[27:25] Are Zuck’s motivations altruistic or competitive?
[30:31] Can Anthropic outrun competitive threats long enough to grow into its valuation?
[34:22] Is Paramount moving from California a threat or was it always the plan?
[41:26] Paramount wants behaviorial remedies, State AGs want structural remedies.
[50:10] Only in StubHub’s world does paying less for tickets hurt the fan.
[55:03] Zoox and Waymo turn Vegas into autonomy’s latest battleground. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[59:15] The open internet is dead.
[1:02:30] Sounds like SPHR and MSGE both want a NYC Sphere.
[1:07:27] Uber’s partners rack up miles ahead of life beyond Waymo.
[1:09:22] Will anyone bid for Lionsgate so it can start a sale process?
[1:11:11] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:13:45] Ray of Light.

Ep. 326: Paramount Acquisition in Jeopardy, Jeff Green’s Delusions and Zuck Enters the Coding Cage

[0:00] I’m Coming Out.
[1:55] Rich’s political transformation is complete.
[3:40] Theaters are so red hot that even Rich is going to the movies.
[7:57] Trade Desk is suffering from a weak macro that only effects the Trade Desk.
[11:30] AppLovin’s Foroughi owns the issues, Trade Desk’s Jeff Green blames others.
[14:22] Paramount is trying to win over public opinion, when only two people matter.
[21:20] If June 4, 2027 arrives without resolution, WBD takes the $7 billion and walks.
[23:27] SpaceX isn’t the only game in space.
[26:45] Telcos only help SpaceX by dismissing the threat.
[31:00] The AI wars are far from over, and Zuck just entered the cage.
[33:35] Hard to bet against Google, but they should be further along in AI.
[37:05] Is anyone that doesn’t like Phish actually walking around with a doughnut AI microphone/speaker?
[39:01] Siri still sucks. Does anyone care?
[43:48] Nvidia can’t save legacy auto. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[47:08] If the NFL rejiggers its packages in 2030, will there be enough for all the broadcast nets?
[52:06] Why Netflix might be Strauss Zelnick’s dream buyer for Take-Two.
[55:46] AI music tiers are coming… eventually.
[59:26] OpenAI is scaling its ad tech stack quickly.
[1:00:59] Snap’s ad business inflecting positively, but will it matter if Specs fail?
[1:04:52] Disney’s Josh D’Amaro came out swinging at Universal.
[1:07:00] Formula 1 is not for sale (yet).
[1:10:26] ESPN wants to be “the” sports TV viewing platform, but YouTube TV is winning.
[1:12:02] Broadcast TV consolidation is inevitable.
[1:15:20] It’s long past time for the Courts to set prediction markets’ house rules.
[1:18:30] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:20:45] Upside Down

Ep. 325: YouTube Ingests Sports, Peacock Joins the Majors and Waymo Exposed Uber’s Bench

[0:00] I Bet You Look Good On The Dancefloor.
[1:20] This is Brandon’s brain on earnings and Phish.
[5:17] Paramount conceded the PI battle to expedite the war for WBD.
[12:13] Waymo’s exit exposes Uber’s thin bench.
[16:20] Automakers ADAS embrace is the first step to privately owned autonomy.
[19:22] Why user growth and Google tension overshadowed Reddit’s blowout quarter.
[25:43] Meta’s silence on 2027 capex became the loudest part of earnings.
[28:30] Meta’s AI still feels bolted on, but do not bet against Zuck.
[31:28] Altman has OpenAI executing again and reiterates trillions in revenue goal.
[38:02] Will a better Siri matter or have consumers moved on?
[42:09] Will Peacock leapfrog to the #2 SVOD behind Netflix in 2027?
[45:40] Will YouTube’s Peacock agreement lessen Google’s desire to bid on sports rights?
[48:10] SpaceX wants a network without Verizon’s baggage.
[49:55] A New York Sphere is a stretch, but MSGE has tax reasons to try.
[52:56] YouTube TV is now the largest pay TV distributor in America.
[56:07] YouTube and YouTube TV are the sports aggregators, not ESPN.
[59:49] Will D’Amaro have his Brian Roberts moment and finally cut all linear TV loose?
[1:02:07] Forgotten EchoStar has a few more chess moves.
[1:04:45] Hard to believe HBO’s engagement is really that low.
[1:07:28] Will Roku’s content ambitions grow under Fox ownership?
[1:09:38] Enough scare tactics, AI labs must own what they built and what it does.
[1:12:09] When will Spotify’s AI music tier launch?
[1:15:03] Jake Paul is not Dana White yet, but he understands promotion.
[1:16:11] Amazon’s Zoox win clears path for Tesla’s Cybercab. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[1:18:09] Yet another Lionsgate studio acquisition story evaporates.
[1:19:01] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:20:02] I Wanna Be Yours.

Ep. 324: If Google Won’t Pay for Reddit Data, Someone Will, PSKY/WBD in Limbo and Comcast Can’t Get Its Story Straight

[0:00] Ha Ha Ha.
[3:33] Rich’s storytelling enters the Hall of Shame.
[9:43] The AI capex arms race has no end in sight.
[11:13] Google can self-fund the arms race. What exactly is OpenAI’s plan?
[13:10] How does AI control the uncontrollable?
[19:58] If Google/Gemini does not pay up for Reddit data, someone else will.
[25:11] There are no enemies in AI, only frenemies.
[27:25] Zuck will bring people closer together with AI (once he figures out how).
[31:06] As soon as Netflix gaming found product market fit, Amazon copied it.
[33:40] Bezos is right: Amazon should be leaning its entire AI stack on the big screen.
[36:24] All eyes on whether a Preliminary Injunction halts PSKY/WBD into 2027 and beyond.
[39:42] When will legacy media create original vertical video content?
[41:10] Elon not afraid to take real questions.
[42:51] Cybercab hotspot hints at a Tesla-SpaceX future.
[46:49] Is Universal Orlando losing share to Disney or is the local Florida economy weakening?
[51:26] We all know it’s on Brandon to ask Eric Baker about Andro.
[52:48] Aurora’s milestone, Tesla’s threat, and Waymo’s potential return. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[56:31] Spotify has barely touched the pricing lever its engagement earns.
[58:26] Stop us if you’ve heard this before: prediction markets need the Supreme Court.
[1:02:10] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:04:12] Drops of Jupiter.

Ep. 323: Paramount Contradicts Itself, Netflix Put Itself in the Penalty Box and Telco Finds a Floor

[0:00] Smoke on the Water.
[4:09] The last place we expected to hear “Knicks in Five.”
[8:53] PSKY/WBD TRO highly likely, but real fight will be the PI.
[13:30] PSKY claiming the deal adds no cable leverage contradicts its own thesis.
[16:17] Netflix’s wound was self-inflicted, but the punishment is getting silly.
[22:10] OpenAI’s smart speaker feels dead on arrival.
[27:01] Roblox keeps pulling away from the pack in AI game creation.
[29:32] SpaceX panic peaks as Telcos find a floor.
[33:53] Station cap repeal is good policy, but Nexstar/Tegna chilling M&A.
[35:44] A simpler, more focused OpenAI is a more dangerous OpenAI.
[38:20] Anyone claiming to know AI’s future in 2-3 years is lying.
[43:24] It was not a good week for StubHub’s Eric Baker.
[48:34] Is leaving Google search to fight AI scraping a kamikaze mission?
[50:23] Uber’s asset-light strategy keeps getting heavier. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[54:18] How much did the World Cup impact UFC viewership?
[56:34] Yawn, Lionsgate has been for sale for a decade or more.
[58:47] Will consumers talk to Spotify outside their cars?
[1:01:07] Repurposing Fandango is a long shot worth taking for Versant.
[1:03:50] Google’s Pinterest swing is very Zuck: easy to launch, hard to matter.
[1:04:55] Nobody predicted Love Island would be a prediction markets driver.
[1:06:27] Goodbye Gandler (link).
[1:08:01] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:09:03] Fire.

Ep. 322: NBCU Buy Take-Two, Sue the Scalpers and Take the NFL Money Now

[0:00] Macho Man.
[2:20] Who should Brandon fight in his MMA debut?
[5:45] Should the NFL strike now, before others take their money?
[9:25] The NFL can feed Netflix without replacing its existing media partners.
[12:15] Netflix knows that in the war for time spent, the biggest library with best algo wins.
[16:14] SpaceX’s space monopoly is about to size up.
[17:41] What’s next for SpaceX and EchoStar.
[21:59] AI’s price war favors whoever can afford to not make money.
[26:27] Agentic is inevitable, not imminent.
[28:33] The Sora-fication of Instagram is coming.
[32:25] Do you talk to your LLM?
[34:29] Enough is enough: speculative ticketing is a scam Congress needs to bury.
[37:02] Tesla hits Miami, Waymo goes robocop. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[39:31] Uber’s shaky sidekicks.
[41:13] Xbox’s “Netflix for gaming” was a strategic error from day one.
[43:20] GPT has copyright principles, until you ask it to remove a competitor’s watermark. (link, link)
[44:37] The most likely answer to NBCU’s gaming ambitions: Take-Two.
[47:14] Versant’s shopping spree shows where NBCU is headed.
[48:48] Reddit is so valuable to AI that brands are trying to poison it.
[51:46] Gaming gets its own real estate on Reddit.
[53:10] Paramount+ is about to learn exactly what its UFC license is worth.
[54:36] The PSKY/WBD deal’s legal threat is louder than it is strong.
[55:43] Disgrace of the Week.
[58:52] Total Eclipse of the Heart.

Ep. 321: NBCU Going Shopping Alone, SpaceX Builds Its Layer Cake and Debating the Netflix Catalyst

[0:00] Party in the U.S.A.
[3:06] Rich is learning to “pronunciate.”
[5:42] The spin was about stock price but NBCU can finally pursue acquisitions.
[12:45] Comcast-Charter: strategically obvious, not happening anytime soon.
[17:54] Peacock now offers Starz inside its app.
[19:32] Netflix stock needs a content spark, and maybe a new lighter.
[22:20] SpaceX’s mobile aspirations move beyond satellites.
[27:25] Dish bankruptcy clears path for long-awaited DirecTV merger.
[29:30] Telcos hike again while Apple upgrades stall.
[30:40] Paramount is not going to divest CNN.
[32:20] PSKY/WBD will close, just not on the timeline they wanted.
[33:02] Cybercab may be Tesla’s key; Uber and Waymo breakup in Phoenix. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[35:16] Zuck renting compute is the Elon playbook, not an AI white flag.
[37:49] Meta leaning on Gemini is not exactly screaming AI leadership.
[38:32] Zuck will take a shot at any big market leveraging his scale.
[39:53] AI clearly has real power in driving consumer behavior.
[42:43] Iger’s owner’s box ambitions add one more suitor to a market that only lifts MSGS.
[44:50] X Money may be too good to be true, but we’re trying it anyway.
[46:04] Roblox needs core games to grow up, but does the platform fit?
[47:31] Reddit finally ready to drive consumers directly to Reddit.
[50:40] If Disney attendance was solid, would nights really need discounting?
[52:15] Disgrace of the Week.
[54:30] Firework.