Podcasts – LightShed Partners

Ep. 318: Live Sports is the GOAT, Siri (Somehow) Still Disappoints and SpaceX Cleared for Launch

[0:00] Don’t Stop Believin’.
[1:30] Mike and the Mad Dog, LightShed edition.
[4:30] The power of live sports was on full display at MSG.
[6:07] SpaceX investors are betting the cloud leaves Earth.
[9:42] Apple Intelligence pitch underwhelms while Google clouds privacy.
[15:15] Paramount and the States lawyering up for battle.
[20:01] Ending sports leagues’ antitrust exemption would hurt consumers and players’ wallets.
[24:46] Restricting compute supply widens the AI divide.
[27:16] Follow Google’s Anthropic money to see where AI value actually pools.
[29:25] No one else can build all three legs of AI’s stool like Google.
[31:46] Does OpenAI cutting token costs have an ulterior motive?
[35:20] Is OpenAI handing the consumer crown to Gemini?
[39:01] So OpenAI wants government money after all.
[40:28] Getting crushed in consoles is forcing Microsoft to change the game.
[43:55] Another week, another crack in the Trade Desk story.
[46:08] MSGE investors are getting their own banner: a Theater-sized check.
[47:24] Snap ramping spend to market Specs, even before consumers know if they want them.
[50:21] Spotify is using live events to chase bigger screens and ad dollars.
[52:26] Disgrace of the Week.
[54:32] Ain’t No Mountain High Enough.

Ep. 317: SpaceX IPO Hinges on EWS, Implications of Google’s Equity Raise & NFL Renegotiation Back in Focus

[0:00] Go New York Go.
[2:52] Rich draws his one fiscal line in the sand at Finals tickets.
[5:36] SpaceX valuation bets on EWS (Elon Web Services).
[12:00] Verizon’s EchoStar spectrum inaction leaves door open for SpaceX and Amazon.
[17:24] Is Google’s equity raise a sign of the top?
[20:30] Are AI companies rushing to go public before SpaceX poisons the well?
[23:28] Will Apple’s Siri revamp fold like its new iPhone?
[25:31] The Bari Weiss freakout is absurd, but so is Joe Rogan on 60 Minutes.
[30:09] AI regulation is still simmering, now with presidential nonsense added to the pot.
[31:13] The anti-data center crowd may make AI a luxury only the rich afford.
[36:47] We are reserving judgment on AI wearables, but rest assured we will judge.
[40:22] Meta’s SMB ad machine may be its easiest path into enterprise AI.
[41:58] NFL likely to recut media rights deals by EOY, as NHL seeks to jump the queue.
[45:36] Tesla needs more than a bigger map; Uber redeploys its chips. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets..
[48:15] If bots are flooding the web now, wait until agentic AI becomes easier.
[50:43] Is Apple Music considering advertising and/or a lower-priced tier?
[53:10] OpenClaw proved demand for virtual assistant, the winner is whoever makes it user friendly.
[55:14] AI lowers the barrier from YouTube to Hollywood, not the difficulty in making great content. .
[57:42] Is Meta set to follow TikTok’s PineDrama vertical video push?
[1:00:35] The new tax world could push every public pro sports team private.
[1:03:01] Every content platform should steal Elon’s frictionless video reaction playbook.
[1:05:05] Even before WBD acquisition, Paramount elevating importance of gaming.
[1:06:40] This chart should end any remaining Knicks-Spurs moral confusion.
[1:07:54] Welcome To New York.

Ep. 316: Trade Desk’s Walmart Problem, OpenAI Courting Madison Avenue and Meta Will Bid on Non-IDFA Traffic Soon

[0:00] It Takes Two.
[2:15] When production costs fall, originality rises from the dead.
[7:01] Trade Desk’s problems are growing by the day.
[10:38] M&A approvals now come with a states’ rights hangover.
[13:59] We hope Apple’s Siri reboot goes beyond yesterday’s bar.
[15:28] The Meta non-IDFA story that helped AppLovin is fake news.
[17:08] SpaceX skeptics celebrate too soon.
[20:18] As Meta’s AI products launch, so do its subscription ambitions.
[23:45] Enterprise AI will be more than a two-horse race.
[25:57] Looking forward to rosé with OpenAI in Cannes.
[28:15] Get ready for an AI-driven animation boom.
[30:54] What constitutes a “significant” use of AI?
[32:53] Will Starlink-enabled flights become an airline marketing advantage?
[37:57] The scalper-free dream has a catch: higher primary prices.
[43:43] Roku is trading simplicity for a dramatically bigger business.
[46:04] Listener poll: Is an MLB salary cap inevitable?
[49:20] YouTube took the couch. Can Netflix take the phone?
[51:45] Peacock is quietly becoming the mobile vertical entertainment innovator.
[54:20] Trump just made a prediction markets Supreme Court showdown all but inevitable.
[56:10] Disgrace of the Week.
[58:20] St. Thomas.

Ep. 315: Elon’s Bell Labs Moment, Spotify Ends the Panic Full Stop and Roblox Safety Leadership

[0:00] The Cover of “Rolling Stone.”
[2:12] A very sleepy LightShed team is back from SF.
[3:08] Rich honored Shaboozey by getting a little tipsy.
[7:30] Autonomy’s safety case transcends the camera vs. lidar debate. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[10:49] SpaceX filing reveals Elon’s modern-day Bell Labs.
[12:23] If compute is everything, why is nobody talking about Grok?
[18:30] Telcos circle wagons as SpaceX prepares to bypass them.
[23:27] Reddit investors far too worried about Google vs. Reddit’s core product.
[25:14] Google’s AI edge is the whole stack, not one product.
[26:18] Spotify just made its subscription far more compelling.
[32:58] Is Spotify’s AI tier Sora for audio, or something that sticks?
[36:51] Can OpenAI go public if Anthropic makes it look like #2?
[38:53] Bipartisan AI fearmongering will widen the digital divide.
[40:55] Uber’s AV strategy points beyond partnerships.
[43:37] Roblox’s age-based accounts are an age-gating wrapper for parents and politicians.
[47:37] Trade Desk is the biggest loser in Publicis’ LiveRamp deal.
[50:17] Trump may have handed MSGE investors a Theater payday.
[51:55] Will Paramount invest aggressively in tech as legacy business melts?
[54:20] MVP MMA is not a threat to UFC.
[55:50] Who should buy Imax?
[58:30] Nothing shows Netflix’s strength like a bad week becoming national news.
[59:53] Is AppLovin’s Pinterest clone e-commerce training data in disguise?
[1:01:50] Meta products are easy to launch and hard to make matter.
[1:05:33] RIP Tokenmaxing.
[1:09:01] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:10:20] Sylvia’s Mother.

Ep. 314: Netflix Is the NFL’s Boogeyman, Amazon Owns Advertising, and Siri Still Sucks

[0:00] Reptilia.
[2:05] PSA to anyone traveling this weekend: whatever you do, take care of your shoes.
[5:15] Apple’s OpenAI drama was predictable because Siri still sucks.
[10:37] Will the NFL use the 2029 Netflix threat to renegotiate broadcast deals?
[17:01] Telcos circle wagons ahead of SpaceX’s IPO pitch.
[21:03] Verizon CEO gives Starlink and CableCos their best ad #SchulmanEffect.
[23:51] Netflix’s ad ambitions are key to re-accelerating growth.
[26:09] Netflix may have lost Warner Bros, but not its interest in (occasional) theatrical.
[28:31] Don’t tell Mark Ruffalo, but PSKY still thinks WBD closes by September.
[29:38] We did not expect Sam Altman’s texts to become an AI music hit (link).
[31:14] The future of LLMs looks more specialized than commoditized.
[35:56] Google validates space data centers that SpaceX skeptics dismissed as hype.
[38:26] YouTube and Amazon won upfront week, but not due to content.
[43:16] Sphere Co can take bigger swings because Las Vegas Sphere is working.
[44:57] Anthropic may have handed its employees a legal headache.
[48:53] Why did Instagram decide to launch Instants now?
[52:05] Meta AI Voice is tying Meta’s platforms together with its hardware ambitions.
[55:41] TikTok Go is trying to turn discovery into bookings.
[57:01] Should Uber buy the winner of its own race?
[59:18] If UFC builds good fight cards, the fans will come.
[1:03:07] Yet another reminder that NBC does sports better.
[1:05:34] Microdramas may be gamified, but the opportunity is real.
[1:06:55] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:08:41] Ode To The Mets.

Ep. 313: The NFL Rights Plot Thickens, Google Hearts Reddit and Spotify’s AI Bill Gets Misread

[0:00] Rattlesnake
[1:45] RIP to two legends.
[3:47] The new baby is costing Brandon sleep, not flights.
[8:09] If YouTube bails on the NFL, does that shift the league’s leverage?
[14:07] Did’s Elon’s grudge with Sam help Dario’s compute challenges. Bonus
[17:40] Community is the one moat AI will struggle to cross.
[19:31] Reddit is the quiet winner of Google’s hunt for unique data.
[21:57] Disney was loud and clear: no ESPN/ABC spin-off any time soon.
[26:15] NBC broadcasts a game like it cares; ESPN should take notes.
[29:13] Disney has the right interactive thesis, but not necessarily the DNA to execute
[32:47] Uber’s partners progress, but driverless dictates winners. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[36:42] Jeff Green’s Amazon delusions continue.
[39:46] Which exec is the reigning champion of value destroying buybacks?
[41:55] Don’t sweat blue dot fever, the concert business is still on fire.
[45:17] Olivia Rodrigo’s tour is showing how thin the air is getting for secondary.
[46:26] There’s a science to pricing tickets, and FIFA failed the class.
[49:59] Aurora, Kodiak and Bot Auto push driverless trucking to an inflection point.
[52:40] Don’t tap out on UFC, marquee cards are coming.
[55:37] Spotify investors reading the AI invoice and missing the AI roadmap.
[1:00:51] Will OpenAI have a Cannes presence as ad ambitions grow?
[1:03:02] Zuck is coming for consumer AI.
[1:04:40] Investors wrote off Pinterest, Gen Z didn’t.
[1:05:44] The movie biz is NOT robust, no matter how much Hollywood spins.
[1:06:54] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:08:49] Magenta Mountain.

Ep. 312: Zuck Readies AI Arsenal, Roblox Resets and Spotify Cues Up AI

[0:00] When You Have to Go Potty, Stop… and Go Right Away!
[3:31] Brandon’s diaper duty paid off at 30,000 feet.
[8:09] Is Disney laying the groundwork to exit TV in 2027?
[9:56] ESPN Unlimited’s leverage grows as it adds content.
[16:33] Apple hardware lead may not survive the AI platform shift.
[22:20] Roblox confronts the double-edged sword of viral hits.
[24:25] Rockstar hints at GTA’s UGC future.
[25:52] Spotify’s major AI product push is coming…soon.
[30:43] Uber’s Hertz partnership shows scaling autonomy takes more than tech.
[33:01] Roku’s content forward home screen will accelerate subscription biz.
[35:41] Are the LLM wars Google’s game to lose?
[39:34] AI is supercharging Meta’s core biz, but Zuck has far bigger AI ambitions.
[42:25] AT&T and T-Mobile winning in a no-growth connectivity market.
[46:03] Leave it to Portland to start an RSN in 2026.
[47:31] Is Walmart preparing itself to lessen its reliance on Trade Desk?
[49:44] Zuck makes it even easier to spend money inside Meta.
[51:12] Sorry haters, X keeps getting better.
[52:54] The autonomous trucking revolution waits for no politician. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[56:17] TikTok’s launches original content vertical video app, Hollywood launches clips.
[59:02] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:00:34] Hello Shitty Day.

Ep. 311: Tim Apple’s Exit Watch, Roku’s Home Screen Grab and Cable’s Consolidation Dream

[0:00] Highschool Lover.
[0:32] New dad, old habits.
[1:54] Charter quietly drops cell phone internet.
[8:47] Will Comcast-Charter M&A debate heat up?
[15:36] Ternus must rewire Apple and ignore distractions.
[17:08] Siri remains Apple’s most embarrassing problem.
[21:56] The domestic theme park ride may be slowing.
[24:32] Tesla robotaxis roll out while timelines blur. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[29:05] Headcount is out, AI spend is in.
[30:41] Meta AI’s SMBs land and expand.
[34:36] Chrome’s new AI Mode looks more friend than foe to Reddit.
[37:39] Why are broadcasters using the NFL to subsidize all other programming?
[39:50] Roku’s new content forward UIs spotted in the wild.
[42:44] TKO is best positioned for boxing’s long-awaited reset.
[44:12] WWE is testing the fine line between monetization and alienation.
[47:33] FIFA overshot on price, now the market is pushing back.
[49:20] Will you use AI agents to access Uber and Spotify?
[54:32] Australia widens the crackdown from social media to gaming.
[56:31] When AI can fake anything, age verification gets messy fast.
[57:59] Subscription doesn’t fit how gamers actually play.
[59:10] If Netflix is serious about gaming, deals are inevitable.
[1:00:25] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:02:12] Le voyage de Pénélope.

Ep. 310: Hastings’ Exit Signals Confidence, Live Nation Charged Fee, and Spiegel’s Steve Jobs Ambitions

[0:00] Beautiful Boy (Darling Boy).
[1:12] Welcome to the world, Jasper Ross!
[7:19] States can victory lap, but LYV’s loss has little real impact.
[11:01] Reed Hastings stepping down screams confidence, not concern.
[14:32] Can advertising accelerate Netflix revenue growth in 2027?
[18:13] Uber pivots to hedge risk and fuel growth. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets.
[23:57] MSGE inches closer to its Donald J. Trump Station windfall.
[27:05] Comcast and Charter face threats beyond satellite hype.
[33:15] Snap cost cuts are important first step, but now they need to drive engagement.
[36:25] Spiegel is all-in on proving everyone wrong about Specs.
[38:50] Claude’s market share story is still in the first inning.
[41:31] Will a one-third market share enable OpenAI to clear the public market bar?
[45:18] Feckless regulators will not stop big tech from controlling the agentic world.
[48:32] OpenAI’s ads biz is progressing.
[50:17] The NFL knows nothing is more free than YouTube.
[53:14] Roblox tags in creators to power subscriptions.
[55:58] Tesla’s Dutch FSD milestone another step toward unlocking full autonomy.
[59:52] WWE/UFC struggling to build buzz, but summer could still land a punch.
[1:02:45] How Ted Cruz could help elevate Zuffa Boxing.
[1:03:40] Why is Ellison extending the SVOD window for all movies to 90 days?
[1:08:21] Nexstar/Tegna stuck in limbo, and broadcast M&A will pay the price.
[1:09:56] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:12:17] Cry Baby Cry.

Ep. 309: Free NFL Isn’t Free, AI Leaders Flip Fast, and Secondary Ticketing Hits New Low

[0:00] Let’s Go Blue.
[1:03] Can you be a superfan of a college you didn’t attend?
[7:27] The anti-NFL crusade misses the punchline: more “free” NFL means higher cable bills.
[16:43] Approving Nexstar/Tegna makes the government’s NFL stance incoherent.
[19:28] Claude is hot right now, but AI favorites don’t stay favorites for long.
[24:02] What differentiates LLMs enough to turn trial into habit?
[29:15] If OpenAI’s Superapp is amazing, so will its IPO odds of success.
[32:35] Claude’s endgame is a one-stop agentic stack that keeps enterprises locked in.
[35:23] Tesla’s FSD inches forward as Elon dangles the next leap. More on tomorrow’s Autonomy Markets..
[38:01] More dilution likely for Paramount shareholders, but they will likely get a Mideast theme park or two.
[43:02] Disney needed Bain to tell them to cut costs?
[45:03] Will D’Amaro split Disney up?
[46:31] Waymo launches Nashville as Lyft waits for Flexdrive.
[49:51] Coachella cancellations take secondary market behavior to a new low.
[53:19] Ticketmaster’s small but strategic CashorTrade partnership.
[54:50] Trade Desk exec departures are becoming a weekly routine.
[56:33] Stagnant industries attract opportunistic capital.
[58:04] Skipping AI in the UMG selloff narrative is laughable.
[1:00:40] Stop us if you’ve heard this before: prediction markets are barreling to the Supreme Court.
[1:03:49] A WGA deal was always about pension funding, not AI.
[1:05:15] Disgrace of the Week.
[1:10:13] Dirty Diana.