Is Comcast’s NBCU Fighting a Losing Battle with Google’s YouTube TV, the Industry’s Largest vMPVD?

In our 2018 Legacy Media Jenga blog, we talked about the dangers of licensing sports rights to tech platforms: “might be positive for the leagues/owners short-term, however, what happens if the tech platforms simply turn around a few years later and say, we overpaid, it is not worth that much to us or we simply no longer want to be in the sports rights licensing business as priorities change? ” Whereas the legacy media ecosystem is dependent on sports to sustain … Continue reading Is Comcast’s NBCU Fighting a Losing Battle with Google’s YouTube TV, the Industry’s Largest vMPVD?

Watch APOS Fall 2021: LightShed, MPA, Netflix, Snapchat, YouTube and HBO Max

Earlier this month, we had the opportunity to speak at the APOS 2021 Virtual Conference, the premier event for the Media, Telecom and Entertainment industries in Asia, created and hosted by Media Partners Asia (MPA). Vivek Couto, Executive Director & Co-Founder, Media Partners Asia has given LightShed permission to showcase the closing session with Couto, his partner Dhivya T, Bloomberg’s Lucas Shaw and myself as well as Couto’s opening presentation and interviews he did with YouTube’s Robert Kyncl, Snapchat’s Jeremi … Continue reading Watch APOS Fall 2021: LightShed, MPA, Netflix, Snapchat, YouTube and HBO Max

Apple Event Bores. 5G Adds Letters. Operators Dial Up Promos

The latest iPhone is out. That’s still a major event for wireless operators and typically sets the tone for the competitive landscape heading into Q4. We talk about the promotions, replacement cycle trends, T-Mobile’s transition to follower and why your iPhone will have even more letters in the upper right corner. Boring Apple’s event was boring. It’s always been an infomercial, but its feeling even more like one each year. There is nothing exciting about the new iPhone. Yes this … Continue reading Apple Event Bores. 5G Adds Letters. Operators Dial Up Promos

Where’s The T-Mobile Love?

Our bullish call on AT&T yesterday understandably triggered questions about our views on T-Mobile, the darling investment of wireless investors since 2016. We called for AT&T’s stock to outperform T-Mobile over the next 12-18 months and noted that our T-Mobile subscriber estimates for 2022 are below consensus. We still believe in the significant opportunity afforded by T-Mobile’s spectrum depth. However, it has not been leveraging that differentiation to achieve higher growth and new spectrum purchases by its peers have created … Continue reading Where’s The T-Mobile Love?

13 Things We Are Thinking About Coming Out of Summer 2021

As summer 2021 fades, we thought it would be useful to highlight some of the key issues we are thinking about: Is Disney sticking with ESPN as it seeks to license the brand to a sportsbook? Has sports betting competition gone too far relative to financial opportunity? Why Netflix has structural advantages as it enters the video game space. Does the upcoming retrans/affiliation negotiation between Comcast and Disney hold the keys to resolving Hulu ownership once and for all? Facebook less likely to succeed… Continue reading

It’s Time To Buy AT&T

We believe AT&T’s wireless and fiber growth opportunity is not being properly recognized by the market. AT&T’s free cash flow yield is more than 11%. That’s too high empirically and relative to peers, especially within the context of its strong and increasingly predictable wireless performance. While AT&T might be shedding dividend-focused investors in the near-term, it won’t be long before share repurchases become part of the narrative. We are initiating coverage with a Buy rating and $36 price target and … Continue reading It’s Time To Buy AT&T

Eight Questions for Disney’s Fiscal June Q3 2021 Tonight

Disney is set to report fiscal Q3 June 2021 earnings after the close this evening. We thought it would be useful to lay out the key questions and issues we are thinking about heading into earnings. 1) Why Shift Back to Exclusive Theatrical Window? Given the slow recovery of movie theater attendance driven by a secular shift in consumer behavior and exaggerated by the worsening COVID-19/Delta Variant pandemic, why are you shifting back to exclusive theatrical releases with Free Guy … Continue reading Eight Questions for Disney’s Fiscal June Q3 2021 Tonight

Not a Punk: AEW Competition Is Exactly What Vince McMahon and WWE Needs

Business is back to usual at WWE, as the company finally returned to the road after seventeen months of fanless shows.  The company managed well financially during the period, which should be capped by a sizable Q2 earnings beat. The COVID-19 period was not otherwise uneventful for WWE, as the company overhauled management and refocused on being simply a content company – punctuated by the sale of the domestic WWE Network to Peacock.  Content companies only go as far as … Continue reading Not a Punk: AEW Competition Is Exactly What Vince McMahon and WWE Needs

Raising Snap Price Target to $84

We are raising our one-year price target on BUY rated Snap Inc. to $84, which yields 33% upside from current levels. Our new PT is based on 35x 2024 EBITDA discounted back at 15% for two years, which equates to 20x 2022 revenues. As we project revenues to still be growing at or above 40% in 2024 and adjusted EBITDA growth of 80%+, we believe the premium valuation multiples we have applied are more than warranted. Additionally, we believe consensus … Continue reading Raising Snap Price Target to $84

Iridium Accelerating. Price Target to $54 From $50

We are increasing our price target on Iridium to $54 from $50 and our expectation for revenue growth and share repurchase is rising. Fundamentals on track Iridium is accelerating growth from the broadening of IoT service adoption and the ubiquity of its differentiated global coverage. IoT growth accelerated to 20% in Q2 from 4% in Q1 and no growth last year. Supply-chain issues could be a challenge, but we expect IoT and “Broadband” to continue to accelerate overall growth. We increased … Continue reading Iridium Accelerating. Price Target to $54 From $50