The LightShed Earnings Scorecard. Edition 4

Welcome to the Fourth Edition of the LightShed Earnings Scorecard. We’re happy to report that the length of prepared remarks declined in Q1. Meanwhile, the discussion about inflation picked up dramatically and we added “recession” to the list of terms we track. Please enjoy our ongoing and hopefully entertaining mission to hold companies and analysts accountable for the quality of earnings calls. 67 companies. 61 listening hours We now track the quarterly earnings calls of 67 companies. This quarter we added … Continue reading The LightShed Earnings Scorecard. Edition 4

Here’s Why Wireless Operators Should Be Raising Price And Cutting Costs

Wireless operators in the United States are getting increasingly comfortable with implementing price increases. Over the past two months they added over $3 billion of recurring service revenue through increases to administrative fees and outright rate plan changes to existing subscribers. But is this enough to hit revenue and cash flow targets? We discuss what might come next as the US economy enters a more challenging period. We also adjust estimates and target valuations. Price increases not yet spiking churn … Continue reading Here’s Why Wireless Operators Should Be Raising Price And Cutting Costs

The Further Bear Case For Valuations

Last week we wrote a note about the wireless industry’s 5G growth problem. (Click here) In that note, we discussed subscriber growth expectations that are below consensus. We also highlighted the potential impact of an uncertain economic outlook on an industry unwilling to test its pricing power during this inflationary period. That generated some good feedback. Some have argued that the wireless industry has little or no pricing power and that valuations could recede even lower than what we outlined. … Continue reading The Further Bear Case For Valuations

The Wireless Industry’s 5G Growth Problem

Wireless operators in the United States committed to invest over $200 billion into 5G, but does anyone care? Consumers have shown little interest in switching between service providers because of 5G. They have also been slow to upgrade to higher-priced 5G rate plans with their existing provider. Meanwhile, wireless operators face a more challenging economic environment in which the consumer is struggling with the impacts of inflation. We think that will challenge their ability to bolster their primary growth engine: … Continue reading The Wireless Industry’s 5G Growth Problem

Twitter’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Year

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527347447822815232?s=20&t=E4UwWTsfqmz_2EsNW5yhlg The current Twitter M&A situation is complete and utter insanity, let alone unprecedented. Elon Musk appears to be having serious doubts about buying Twitter at $54.20, regardless of the legally binding agreement he signed last month. Worse yet, he appears to be violating the NDA tied to the in-process transaction and openly disparaging the company (which also appears to be a violation of the acquisition agreement). This puts Twitter’s Board of Directors in a very challenging position as the … Continue reading Twitter’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Year

Should Disney Sell Hulu to Buy Netflix or Roblox?

Investors have soured on direct-to-consumer streaming as losses pile up while Netflix’s dramatic slowdown in the past six months has undermined the idea of achieving the necessary scale to drive robust profitability. At the same time, fears of economic weakness/recession are growing, with inflation at historic levels and supply chain issues persisting, on top of continued geopolitical uncertainty in Eastern Europe. As the economy softens, the ad market is clearly slowing leading to a significant sell-off in anything with economic … Continue reading Should Disney Sell Hulu to Buy Netflix or Roblox?

The Cable Broadband Growth Era Is Over. Where’s The Bottom For Charter?

We have been highlighting the competitive threats to cable operators on our weekly podcast, Twitter and in our notes on wireless companies. But that’s not enough. As Charter stock declined, numerous investors asked if now is the right time to step in. We used that question to address our broader views on the future of connectivity in America. While we are at it, we initiated formal coverage of Charter with a Neutral rating. We examine how things could get worse, but … Continue reading The Cable Broadband Growth Era Is Over. Where’s The Bottom For Charter?

Why Did Charter Choose Comcast’s Flex over GoogleTV in the tvOS War?

Legacy media and cable companies have never been known for being on the bleeding edge of technology. Just look at how late they were to the streaming video party and now the connected tvOS party. It took a rapid increase in cord-cutting to finally make them realize they had to enter streaming video. The rapid growth of the connected TV ad market combined with a precipitous decline in broadband sub growth appears to be the final push necessary to push … Continue reading Why Did Charter Choose Comcast’s Flex over GoogleTV in the tvOS War?

LightShed’s Rich Greenfield Interviewed by The Ankler’s Richard Rushfield on The Ankler Hot Seat Podcast

Last Friday, The Ankler’s Richard Rushfield interviewed us on The Ankler Hot Seat podcast to discuss the key takeaways from the Netflix stock crash. The full 34-minute interview is embedded below, with topics and timestamps laid out below. The interview ties to three recent posts: Time to Sound the SVOD Alarm and Reverse Course to Arms Dealers?Is it Time for #GoodLuckStreaming? Four Reactions to Netflix EarningsLightShed’s Rich Greenfield Interviewed by Puck News’ Matthew Belloni on The Town Podcast https://open.spotify.com/episode/2RXYNtx1hcMHBMWPWSCm8b?si=917a7799d5734382 Key … Continue reading LightShed’s Rich Greenfield Interviewed by The Ankler’s Richard Rushfield on The Ankler Hot Seat Podcast

LightShed’s Rich Greenfield Interviewed by Puck News’ Matthew Belloni on The Town Podcast

Yesterday, Puck News’ Matt Belloni interviewed us on The Town podcast to discuss the key takeaways from the Netflix stock crash. The full 26-minute interview is embedded below, with topics and timestamps laid out below. The interviews ties to two recent posts: Time to Sound the SVOD Alarm and Reverse Course to Arms Dealers?Is it Time for #GoodLuckStreaming? Four Reactions to Netflix Earnings https://open.spotify.com/episode/4yBGnB1oqM2xj2pnkcaC6k?si=8998b127a7144b51 Key Highlights with Timestamps [3:20] Everyone has pivoted to streaming but the future profitability and TAM … Continue reading LightShed’s Rich Greenfield Interviewed by Puck News’ Matthew Belloni on The Town Podcast