Eight Questions for Netflix’s Q4 2021 Earnings Interview Tonight

Here are the eight key questions investors should want answers to from Netflix management on tonight’s Q4 2021 earnings interview (our Q3 2021 questions can be found here). 1. Updated Thoughts on Global TAM. You have talked to the pandemic wreaking havoc on your ability to model your business. That said, you are continuing to ramp content spend aggressively, which would appear to illustrate Netflix’s confidence in their long-term total addressable market. If there are 600-800 million global subscribers available … Continue reading Eight Questions for Netflix’s Q4 2021 Earnings Interview Tonight

Microsoft / Activision Blizzard Analysis: Silver Edition (Aspiring for Gold)

We have made our first definitively wrong prediction in the LightShed Top 22 for 22.  We said we believed Bobby Kotick would survive 2022 running Activision Blizzard in what could be “Kotick’s last stand.” We said if things did not improve then bigger strategic changes would become unavoidable. Eighteen days into 2022, ATVI announced a deal to sell itself to Microsoft.  Kotick is essentially a lame duck and his survival through the year is tied to the timing of regulatory … Continue reading Microsoft / Activision Blizzard Analysis: Silver Edition (Aspiring for Gold)

Sinclair’s Diamond Sports, Leagues, Teams and the Future of RSNs

Last week, Sinclair’s Diamond Sports Group (DSG) reached an agreement with the NBA to stream its RSNs over-the-top to non-MVPD/vMVPD subscribers (link). It also increased its liquidity with a $600 million debt deal and the deferral of management fees being paid to Sinclair from its DSG subsidiary (link). As a result, it appears Sinclair has delayed the inevitable bankruptcy of DSG. That is good news for team owners, as the odds have meaningfully increased that DSG’s RSNs will be able … Continue reading Sinclair’s Diamond Sports, Leagues, Teams and the Future of RSNs

LightShed’s Rich Greenfield Joined Plain English Podcast with Derek Thompson

Last week, Derek Thompson invited me to join his Plain English podcast, part of The Ringer network on Spotify. Thompson and I discussed what happens to the movie theater business as we move past the pandemic with shorter windows and a surge of direct-to-consumer streaming content, whether streaming-only content can enter the zeitgeist, why the streaming wars have intensified vs. content creators remaining arms dealers, the challenge of balancing legacy media businesses with a DTC future, the growing threat to … Continue reading LightShed’s Rich Greenfield Joined Plain English Podcast with Derek Thompson

The LightShed Earnings Scorecard. Edition 2

Welcome to the 2nd edition of the LightShed Earnings Scorecard! The only quarterly measuring stick that is holding companies accountable for the quality of their earnings calls. Earnings reports are set to kick off in the TMT sector, so it is time to review Q3 calls to see who improved and who is getting worse. We also decided to take a look at how the word Metaverse invaded calls in Q3 as we prepare our buzzword bingo card for Q4 … Continue reading The LightShed Earnings Scorecard. Edition 2

LightShed’s Top 22 TMT Predictions and Events for 2022 #Top22for22

Happy New Year. We are kicking off LightShed’s TMT coverage in the new year by laying out our top predictions and events to watch for in 2022 – what we call our #Top22for22. To see what we got right and wrong in last year’s Top 21 list for 2021, click here.  2021 was supposed to be the year of the “new normal” as we moved on from Covid-19 and synthesized the important technologies and routines of the pandemic. We are part of the … Continue reading LightShed’s Top 22 TMT Predictions and Events for 2022 #Top22for22

Initiating Coverage Of Telesat With Buy. $60 Target But New LEO Constellation Offers 10x Upside

Telesat is finally a public company with a simplified structure that provides investors with an opportunity to invest in Litespeed, a new LEO satellite constellation targeting the global enterprise connectivity market. There are scenarios for Litespeed and the monetization of Telesat’s C-Band spectrum that could result in Telesat’s stock rising 10x from current levels. In the meantime, the stock is supported by a legacy GEO satellite business that generates steady free cash flow. We initiated coverage on the new equity … Continue reading Initiating Coverage Of Telesat With Buy. $60 Target But New LEO Constellation Offers 10x Upside

LightShed’s Top 15 Most Read Posts During 2021

As usual, our most read post of the year is the first post of the year: the LightShed Team’s predictions for the year ahead. Streaming wars, tvOS wars, the battle for time spent vs. subscribers and the rise of connected TV advertising drove the most interest. Perhaps even more interesting is that the #2 most read post of 2021 was our reaction to the year’s biggest shocker, Discovery effectively taking over WarnerMedia with Discovery CEO David Zaslav instantly transformed into … Continue reading LightShed’s Top 15 Most Read Posts During 2021

LightShed’s Rich Greenfield and Axios’ Sara Fischer Joined The Dumbest Guy in the Room Podcast

CivicScience Founder and CEO, John Dick, launched a podcast earlier this year called The Dumbest Guy in the Room: The Podcast Where DATA meets LIFE (CivicScience is a market research firm that provides early and fast consumer trend intelligence). Axios’ Sara Fischer and LightShed’s Rich Greenfield joined TDGITR podcast a few weeks ago to talk about the rapidly evolving state of the media and entertainment world, the “metaverse,” public company conference calls, local news, the glut of streaming services can be … Continue reading LightShed’s Rich Greenfield and Axios’ Sara Fischer Joined The Dumbest Guy in the Room Podcast

Seven Reactions to Warner Bros Discovery Proxy and Will WBD Play to Win?

Late last week, Warner Bros Discovery filed their S-4 proxy statement tied to the pending merger of WarnerMedia and Discovery (link). We have the following seven observations/reactions to reading the document: 1) Relative Ownership Compromise: At the start of the negotiation between AT&T and Discovery, AT&T management wanted to own 75% of the combined business compared to Discovery at 25%, while Discovery management believed a 65%/35% split was equitable (with somewhere between $40-$42 billion of incremental debt). When the transaction … Continue reading Seven Reactions to Warner Bros Discovery Proxy and Will WBD Play to Win?