We are unveiling the LightShed Earnings Call Scorecard ahead of Q3 earnings because it is time to hold companies accountable. The value of quarterly earnings calls continues to degrade. Time is wasted on lengthy prepared comments, including some companies that actually read their press release! What’s more pathetic, however, is how companies control Q&A sessions to protect management teams from tough questions. They are more interested in hearing a shameless analyst gush “Great quarter!” than addressing the tough issues that trouble … Continue reading Introducing The LightShed Earnings Call Scorecard
We are initiating coverage of KORE Wireless with a Buy rating and a $14 price target. It completed its SPAC transaction with CTAC, a stock we also recommended with a $14 target. Since our CTAC initiation, Kore reported solid numbers. We originally expected KORE’s revenue growth to accelerate to 13% in 2021. We now expect the growth rate to more than double to 16% this year. We therefore like KORE even more at current discounted levels. KORE sits in the … Continue reading Initiating Coverage Of KORE Wireless With A Buy
Next week, the FCC is kicking off another spectrum auction. This one hasn’t attracted as much attention as the $80 billion C-Band auction, but it could enable AT&T and Verizon to continue to close the spectrum gap with T-Mobile. We expect all four national wireless operators to actively participate, driving bids over $30 billion. We discuss the incentives for the bidders that could drive even higher bids and the implications for tower companies. Deeper spectrum improves performance Deploying more spectrum … Continue reading Here’s Why The Next FCC Auction Could Top $30 Billion
In our 2018 Legacy Media Jenga blog, we talked about the dangers of licensing sports rights to tech platforms: “might be positive for the leagues/owners short-term, however, what happens if the tech platforms simply turn around a few years later and say, we overpaid, it is not worth that much to us or we simply no longer want to be in the sports rights licensing business as priorities change? ” Whereas the legacy media ecosystem is dependent on sports to sustain … Continue reading Is Comcast’s NBCU Fighting a Losing Battle with Google’s YouTube TV, the Industry’s Largest vMPVD?
Earlier this month, we had the opportunity to speak at the APOS 2021 Virtual Conference, the premier event for the Media, Telecom and Entertainment industries in Asia, created and hosted by Media Partners Asia (MPA). Vivek Couto, Executive Director & Co-Founder, Media Partners Asia has given LightShed permission to showcase the closing session with Couto, his partner Dhivya T, Bloomberg’s Lucas Shaw and myself as well as Couto’s opening presentation and interviews he did with YouTube’s Robert Kyncl, Snapchat’s Jeremi … Continue reading Watch APOS Fall 2021: LightShed, MPA, Netflix, Snapchat, YouTube and HBO Max
The latest iPhone is out. That’s still a major event for wireless operators and typically sets the tone for the competitive landscape heading into Q4. We talk about the promotions, replacement cycle trends, T-Mobile’s transition to follower and why your iPhone will have even more letters in the upper right corner. Boring Apple’s event was boring. It’s always been an infomercial, but its feeling even more like one each year. There is nothing exciting about the new iPhone. Yes this … Continue reading Apple Event Bores. 5G Adds Letters. Operators Dial Up Promos
Our bullish call on AT&T yesterday understandably triggered questions about our views on T-Mobile, the darling investment of wireless investors since 2016. We called for AT&T’s stock to outperform T-Mobile over the next 12-18 months and noted that our T-Mobile subscriber estimates for 2022 are below consensus. We still believe in the significant opportunity afforded by T-Mobile’s spectrum depth. However, it has not been leveraging that differentiation to achieve higher growth and new spectrum purchases by its peers have created … Continue reading Where’s The T-Mobile Love?
As summer 2021 fades, we thought it would be useful to highlight some of the key issues we are thinking about: Is Disney sticking with ESPN as it seeks to license the brand to a sportsbook? Has sports betting competition gone too far relative to financial opportunity? Why Netflix has structural advantages as it enters the video game space. Does the upcoming retrans/affiliation negotiation between Comcast and Disney hold the keys to resolving Hulu ownership once and for all? Facebook less likely to succeed… Continue reading
We believe AT&T’s wireless and fiber growth opportunity is not being properly recognized by the market. AT&T’s free cash flow yield is more than 11%. That’s too high empirically and relative to peers, especially within the context of its strong and increasingly predictable wireless performance. While AT&T might be shedding dividend-focused investors in the near-term, it won’t be long before share repurchases become part of the narrative. We are initiating coverage with a Buy rating and $36 price target and … Continue reading It’s Time To Buy AT&T
Disney is set to report fiscal Q3 June 2021 earnings after the close this evening. We thought it would be useful to lay out the key questions and issues we are thinking about heading into earnings. 1) Why Shift Back to Exclusive Theatrical Window? Given the slow recovery of movie theater attendance driven by a secular shift in consumer behavior and exaggerated by the worsening COVID-19/Delta Variant pandemic, why are you shifting back to exclusive theatrical releases with Free Guy … Continue reading Eight Questions for Disney’s Fiscal June Q3 2021 Tonight