Investors have soured on direct-to-consumer streaming as losses pile up while Netflix’s dramatic slowdown in the past six months has undermined the idea of achieving the necessary scale to drive robust profitability. At the same time, fears of economic weakness/recession are growing, with inflation at historic levels and supply chain issues persisting, on top of continued geopolitical uncertainty in Eastern Europe. As the economy softens, the ad market is clearly slowing leading to a significant sell-off in anything with economic … Continue reading Should Disney Sell Hulu to Buy Netflix or Roblox?
We have been highlighting the competitive threats to cable operators on our weekly podcast, Twitter and in our notes on wireless companies. But that’s not enough. As Charter stock declined, numerous investors asked if now is the right time to step in. We used that question to address our broader views on the future of connectivity in America. While we are at it, we initiated formal coverage of Charter with a Neutral rating. We examine how things could get worse, but … Continue reading The Cable Broadband Growth Era Is Over. Where’s The Bottom For Charter?
Legacy media and cable companies have never been known for being on the bleeding edge of technology. Just look at how late they were to the streaming video party and now the connected tvOS party. It took a rapid increase in cord-cutting to finally make them realize they had to enter streaming video. The rapid growth of the connected TV ad market combined with a precipitous decline in broadband sub growth appears to be the final push necessary to push … Continue reading Why Did Charter Choose Comcast’s Flex over GoogleTV in the tvOS War?
Last Friday, The Ankler’s Richard Rushfield interviewed us on The Ankler Hot Seat podcast to discuss the key takeaways from the Netflix stock crash. The full 34-minute interview is embedded below, with topics and timestamps laid out below. The interview ties to three recent posts: Time to Sound the SVOD Alarm and Reverse Course to Arms Dealers?Is it Time for #GoodLuckStreaming? Four Reactions to Netflix EarningsLightShed’s Rich Greenfield Interviewed by Puck News’ Matthew Belloni on The Town Podcast https://open.spotify.com/episode/2RXYNtx1hcMHBMWPWSCm8b?si=917a7799d5734382 Key … Continue reading LightShed’s Rich Greenfield Interviewed by The Ankler’s Richard Rushfield on The Ankler Hot Seat Podcast
Yesterday, Puck News’ Matt Belloni interviewed us on The Town podcast to discuss the key takeaways from the Netflix stock crash. The full 26-minute interview is embedded below, with topics and timestamps laid out below. The interviews ties to two recent posts: Time to Sound the SVOD Alarm and Reverse Course to Arms Dealers?Is it Time for #GoodLuckStreaming? Four Reactions to Netflix Earnings https://open.spotify.com/episode/4yBGnB1oqM2xj2pnkcaC6k?si=8998b127a7144b51 Key Highlights with Timestamps [3:20] Everyone has pivoted to streaming but the future profitability and TAM … Continue reading LightShed’s Rich Greenfield Interviewed by Puck News’ Matthew Belloni on The Town Podcast
Virtually the entire legacy media sector has pivoted to building their own direct-to-consumer streaming services so they can have a direct relationship with consumers for the first time (historically they only distributed through third parties such as movie theaters and cable/satellite companies). Despite regularly attacking Netflix content quality and/or profitability, legacy media management teams were secretly jealous and desperately wanted to have the investor love and valuation afforded Netflix. Former Disney CEO Bob Iger’s stunning success with Disney+ changed everything … Continue reading Time to Sound the SVOD Alarm and Reverse Course to Arms Dealers?
From a DVD-by-mail company to a streaming juggernaut, Netflix’s Co-Founder Reed Hastings has repeatedly proven adept at seeing the future and pivoting the company to take advantage of changes in technology and consumer demand for content. Blockbuster was going to kill Netflix, Amazon was going to kill Netflix, HBO was going to kill Netflix, and Disney was going to kill Netflix. Yet, time and time again Hastings and team appeared to simply be more agile and adept at navigating the … Continue reading Is it Time for #GoodLuckStreaming? Four Reactions to Netflix Earnings
Here are our ten key questions investors should want answers to from Netflix management on tonight’s Q1 2022 earnings interview (our Q4 2021 questions can be found here). 1. Can an SVOD service reach 500 million subs, let alone 1 billion subs without an advertising tier? Following the news that Disney is launching an ad-supported tier for Disney+ in late 2022, there has been significant investor discussion of whether a lower priced ad-supported tier is inevitable at Netflix. That chatter … Continue reading Ten Questions for Netflix’s Q1 2022 Earnings Interview Tonight
Back in November 2021 (link), we questioned whether Disney’s plan for Disney+ was to be a daily must-watch destination for people of all ages or a modern-day version of the DVD wall focused on young children: “Why Is Disney Still Putting So Much High Profile Content on Linear TV? We simply cannot understand why shows like Dancing with the Stars, The Bachelor, The Bachelorette, Grey’s Anatomy, The Good Doctor, etc are not Disney+ streaming exclusives. If Cocomelon can flourish next … Continue reading Bob Chapek Increasingly All-in on Streaming as Disney Moves Away from Linear TV
The Third Edition of the LightShed Earnings Scorecard is out. This is our attempt to hold companies and analysts accountable for the quality of earnings calls. Sadly, there is little improvement. In this edition, we also started tracking the use of the word “inflation”. Enjoy. Coming/going We added three companies to the Q4 Edition of the LightShed Scorecard: AST Space Mobile, Viasat, and US Cellular/TDS. We also removed three companies. Activision and Zynga are in the process of being acquired and Paramount … Continue reading The LightShed Earnings Scorecard. Third Edition