2020 will likely end with multichannel video subscribers (MVPD/vMVPD combined) nearing 70 million subscribers — a level that the industry has not seen since 1997. As cord-cutting accelerates, all eyes are now focused on direct-to-consumer streaming apps. After waiting far too long, all the major media companies have realized they have no choice but to embrace DTC streaming as they face-off against far larger and more powerful tech companies. While these OTT video apps are free of the MVPD system, … Continue reading The War for Your Living Room: Here Comes Google, Watch Out Roku, Amazon and Apple
Sling TV launched in February 2015, ushering in a new category of multichannel video programming distributors, which we now call vMVPDs (virtual MVPDs). Within four years, the vMVPD category rose from non-existent to over 11% of total subscribers, with ~9.3 million subscribers on a base of around 82 million vMVPD/MVPD subs combined at year-end 2019. While Sling launched the category, they were joined by Hulu Live, YouTube TV, Sony Vue, AT&T TV Now (formerly DirecTV Now), fuboTV and Philo. Consumer … Continue reading What Do Fatter, More Expensive “Skinny Bundles” Mean for the Media Industry?
UPDATE 2: WarnerMedia has clarified that there will be one exception to what we detailed earlier today. On Roku devices only, the HBO Now app will be rebranded HBO and live on for an unspecified period of time. So the only place you will find two versions of HBO after July 31st is on Roku – everywhere else the only available HBO app on devices will be HBO Max. This will enable Roku users who signed up for HBO Now … Continue reading Have Cable or Satellite, but Watch HBO via Roku or FireTV? #goodluck
When most investors talk about the streaming wars, they focus on Netflix, Amazon and the Disney+/Hulu/ESPN+ bundle. With HBO’s transformation into HBO Max and the hiring of Jason Kilar to oversee WarnerMedia, AT&T is clearly trying to reposition itself as a single destination with content for everyone, much like Netflix and Amazon Prime Video, and in sharp contrast to Disney’s synthetic bundle (with separate logins/UIs/content across three services). NBCU’s Peacock may evolve to fit into this broader AVOD/SVOD bucket, but … Continue reading Are ViacomCBS’ Streaming Ambitions Far Bigger Than Investors Realize?
Source: LightShed Partners Legacy Media Outlook Dims While valuation multiples have expanded as a result of massive financial stimulus, we are estimating that the pay TV ecosystem (MVPDs/vMVPDs) shrinks by a record 2.5 million subscribers in Q2 2020. The 2.5 million drop follows a previous record drop of 2 million subscribers in Q1 2020. In the past 12 months, that means over 6.5 million have cut the cord, with all signs pointing to a loss of 8-9 million subscribers for … Continue reading Is NFL Sunday Ticket the Battering Ram Apple TV+ Needs?
Last Monday, we highlighted the DOJ’s role in mitigating any drama between Dish and T-Mobile. (Link) In the days that followed, media reports had warned of a possible complete collapse of the sale of Boost to Dish. Here’s a quick update. We expect a July 1st closing of Boost and do not see a reasonable scenario in which another buyer for Boost emerges. Charlie Ergen has not given any indication to investors, equipment vendors, software vendors, tower companies or just … Continue reading Update To The T-Mobile – Dish Drama
TikTok usage is simply exploding. The platform is aging up rapidly beyond its youthful origins and the content verticals/genres are expanding well beyond its roots in lip sync, dance and comedy; it even became an important source for real-time videos from protests in the past few weeks. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought in new users and increased engagement of existing users, but the rapid growth trends were already well underway pre-pandemic. While TikTok is still in the early stages of … Continue reading WATCH: TikTok’s Ambitions Go Far Beyond Lip Sync, Dance and Comedy #CompetitorsBeware
It’s now up to the DOJ to decide on the lease terms for T-Mobile’s use of Dish’s 600 MHz spectrum. The DOJ might also need to play a role in resolving whatever outstanding issues have delayed the closing of Dish’s $1.4 billion purchase of Boost. We make recommendations on both and question whether the DOJ and FCC need to go even further with Dish’s larger spectrum portfolio. DOJ to decide spectrum lease Dish and T-Mobile have been unable to agree … Continue reading Makan The Call On The Ergen vs T-Mobile Drama
The global movie exhibition industry came to a screeching halt by mid-March, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Hollywood studios with feature films in the middle of release or whose marketing dollars had already been spent leading up to release scrambled to shift titles into Premium Video-on-Demand (PVOD) and/or Subscription Video-on-Demand (SVOD) as we saw with Universal’s Invisible Man and Trolls, Disney’s Onward, etc. Virtually all major films (those with the potential for $500-$1 billion-plus of box office) have been delayed … Continue reading Will Christopher Nolan and Bob Chapek Accelerate the Shift of Movies to Netflix?
So much has changed since our last quotes review published on March 7th (link), before shelter-in-place orders took effect. Q1 2020 earnings calls were filled with commentary around managing through the pandemic, liquidity and the uncertainty that lies ahead. Below are the most impactful takeaways from Q1 2020 earnings in streaming video, gaming, television, movies, live events and mobile/social platforms grouped by topic, with our own thoughts/snark following each memorable management quote. The obvious is how gaming, streaming and social/mobile … Continue reading LightShed’s Favorite Quotes and Key Takeaways from Q1 2020 TMT Earnings