Initiate Coverage Of Cogent With Buy Rating and $94 Target.

We are initiating coverage of Cogent with a Buy rating and $94 price target. We believe Cogent is benefiting from increased internet usage trends that will return its Net-centric business to growth in Q1 for the first time in seven quarters. We also expect its Corporate business to remain stable during shelter in place conditions and a subsequent recession. Our estimates are above consensus for Q1 and every other quarter this year. Finally, we believe the Board will accelerate dividend … Continue reading Initiate Coverage Of Cogent With Buy Rating and $94 Target.

Six Issues We Are Thinking About During the Coronavirus Pandemic

Hope everyone reading this is safe and healthy. With media company after media company coming out publicly to say the growing global coronavirus pandemic is going to have a meaningful impact on their businesses, we thought it would useful to talk through some of the things we have been thinking about over the past week, including how fast the movie industry can bounce back, when it will be safe to go to a theme park again, how cable infrastructure is … Continue reading Six Issues We Are Thinking About During the Coronavirus Pandemic

National Amusements: No Movies, No Problem: Restructures Credit Without Impacting ViacomCBS

Back on March 12 (link), we wrote about the debt covenant breach at National Amusements (NAI), the controlling shareholder of ViacomCBS. ViacomCBS investors feared that NAI would be forced to sell ViacomCBS shares as they did in 2009 (just months after telling investors they would not have to). In our March 12, 2020 piece, we stated: “Importantly, National Amusements DOES NOT believe it will need to sell ViacomCBS shares” Earlier today, NAI issued the following statement, confirming that they had … Continue reading National Amusements: No Movies, No Problem: Restructures Credit Without Impacting ViacomCBS

Twitter Will Emerge from Pandemic Even Stronger; No Liquidity Concerns

The Bad News: Our ad market concerns in the face of the growing global #coronavirus pandemic, outlined in our March 18th post (link), were confirmed in Twitter’s pre-announcement this past Monday evening (not to mention Facebook’s statement yesterday evening). Given that Twitter now expects revenues to be down “slightly” in Q1 2020, after a strong first couple of months of the quarter (and that is with headwinds in Asia during February due to the pandemic), it is crystal clear that … Continue reading Twitter Will Emerge from Pandemic Even Stronger; No Liquidity Concerns

Here’s What Dish and Comcast’s Spectrum Did To T-Mobile’s Network

It took less than a week for T-Mobile to deploy the 600 MHz spectrum that Dish and others loaned it. We analyzed new data from Opensignal that shows how much of the loaned 600 MHz spectrum T-Mobile has already deployed in each of the top 100 markets and who owns the spectrum that T-Mobile chose to use. We also tested the performance of T-Mobile’s network before and after the incremental spectrum deployment. Finally, we discussed implications for tower companies. 600 MHz … Continue reading Here’s What Dish and Comcast’s Spectrum Did To T-Mobile’s Network

Why Netflix’s Balance Sheet Will Increase Its Dominance During the Pandemic

Given that Netflix had negative free cash flow of $3.3 billion in 2019 and guided to $2.5 billion of negative free cash flow in 2020, we have talked to many investors who are concerned with the company’s access to capital during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. While it may be counter-intuitive, we believe the pandemic should actually lead to reduced free cash flow losses for Netflix in 2020, with cash on hand and undrawn credit facility providing Netflix with substantial liquidity, … Continue reading Why Netflix’s Balance Sheet Will Increase Its Dominance During the Pandemic

Wireless Phone Sales Likely to Collapse in Q2: What it Means for Operators and Apple

We attempted to size the impact on the wireless industry from the nationwide effort to flatten the curve of Covid infections. Wireless operators have already started to close company owned stores, are providing leniency on late fees, and have committed to back stop the commission payments for their distribution partners. We believe the largest impact is about to happen as a result of the voluntary actions of American’s to limit movement. While cash flow generation from operators will likely benefit … Continue reading Wireless Phone Sales Likely to Collapse in Q2: What it Means for Operators and Apple

Listen: Recode’s Peter Kafka Interview’s LightShed’s Rich Greenfield

Following our two recent posts on movies going direct-to-consumer in the midst of a global COVID-19 pandemic that has shuttered movie theaters around the world, Recode’s Peter Kafka asked us to join him on his podcast, which is embedded below in full (note: our portion of the interview runs from 29:42-14:12 in the Spotify embedded player below) with a list of key topics and minute markers listed below the embedded podcast. We explained how premium video on demand has been … Continue reading Listen: Recode’s Peter Kafka Interview’s LightShed’s Rich Greenfield

Replay WFH Webinar: LUMA’s Terry Kawaja Interviewing LightShed’s Rich Greenfield

On Wednesday, March 18th, we joined LUMA Partner’s Terry Kawaja for a Work From Home (WFH) Webinar on Streaming Wars and the Future of TV. For the first 29 minutes, Kawaja gave a presentation on the intensifying battle between legacy media and the explosive growth of streaming video platforms (broken down into four parts: the consumer perspective, the media perspective, the digital perspective and media’s strategic response). Starting at 29 minutes in, we spent the final hour of the webinar … Continue reading Replay WFH Webinar: LUMA’s Terry Kawaja Interviewing LightShed’s Rich Greenfield

The Show Isn’t Over – Addressing Live Nation Liquidity Concerns

Just short of a month ago, we initiated on Live Nation with a BUY rating and $100PT, calling LYV “A Rare Combination of Growth and Safety.”  That was the top of the stock.  That same day, it became clearer to the market that COVID-19 was not just a China problem anymore.  The rest is sort of a blur, with health, economic, and social consequences spiraling like a flywheel – and with Live Nation at one point today trading down to … Continue reading The Show Isn’t Over – Addressing Live Nation Liquidity Concerns