Despite double-digit growth in AOL’s search ad revenues, we expect overall ad revenues to be down double-digits when the company reports Q4 earnings tomorrow, with full-year 2010 ad revenues likely to decline at least 10% (assumes display advertising down 20%-plus, but that may be optimistic given the 50% fall-off that IACI discussed for January ’09…
We are expecting Time Warner Cable to grow EBITDA at less than 3% in 2009, excluding non-recurring charges in 2008 (compared to 7.5% growth in 2008). While the slowdown can be partially explained by slowing revenue growth (we forecast RGUs will be down at least 30% Y/Y, with DVR growth slowing dramatically as well), we…
Tourism across the United States is suffering as the global economy continues to weaken. However, in our 1/26 blog post (click here), we stated our belief that our fiscal (Sept) 2009 projections for Disney’s theme parks were simply too dire (raised our 2009 revenue projection to a 10% decline from a 17% decline and even…
Sprint announced another new phone this morning, this one a refreshed flip for its iDEN network. The Stature i9 will be available first for the Boost network and then later for Sprint post-paid customers if they care. We suspect that NII Holdings will also like to sell this phone in Latin America. This new phone…
Although the economy is negatively affecting National CineMedia’s growth, particularly its local ad sales (about 18% of its total advertising revenues), cinema advertising’s unique value proposition should still enable revenue growth in 2009. While TV remains the place to reach the most simultaneous eyeballs with a sight, sound and motion ad, reaching an 18-34 consumer…
After posting mid-single digit declines in the first 9 months of 2008 (physical and digital combined), music industry sales fell off a cliff in calendar 4Q08 with CD sales down 25% and overall sales down an estimated 15% Y/Y. Earlier this week, we lowered our FY (Sept) 2009 forecast for Warner Music Group (Click here…
Last week, NCMI announced a guidance update press release and conference call for 1/29 (today) after the close. At the time, we viewed the announcement as odd, and a bit concerning given the increasingly negative datapoints we have been hearing about the advertising landscape. However, the actual release by NCMI is encouraging, with advertising revenues…
This marks our fifth earnings reduction for News Corp. in the past five months, with fiscal (June) 2009 operating income now expected to decline 30% year-over-year, with TV profits down 80%, Newspapers down over 50%, Book Publishing down 90% and Filmed Entertainment down almost 30%. Our FY2009 EPS estimate is now 18% below consensus and…
We are reducing our CBS estimates for the second time in the past week, as we believe TV station businesses are in complete free-fall; not just at CBS, but across the entire industry. We believe CBS TV station revenues could decline 35-40% in 2009 with profits down 65-70%. While we are increasingly nervous about CBS’s…
Just two days ago, we wrote a blog (Click here), discussing RCN’s decision to abandon its broadband portal, in favor of a customer service focused web destination at http://www.rcn.net. In that blog, we discussed/questioned Comcast’s ambitions to build out its portal via acquisitions, while the other broadband providers such as Time Warner focused on home-grown…
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