Viacom shares are now down 70% year-to-date, yet even the most draconian scenario we can model for 2009 yields EPS (of $2.00, 20 below Consensus) and FCF/share (of $2.27) only 1/3 lower than where we were estimating coming into 2008. We are reducing our Viacom estimates to what we perceive as worst case utilizing the…
China Mobile reported subscriber net additions yesterday of 7.2 million that were 800,000 lower than we expected and reflected a material slowdown in the growth of net subscriber additions to 9.0% from the 37% growth posted in the first 9 months of the year. Net add growth had started to slow somewhat starting in July…
We simply DO NOT believe Cablevision has a liquidity problem. While Cablevision does have 4.7x leverage and has $1.7 bn of maturities in 2009, we believe it has ample liquidity to meet its needs. Even in a worst-case scenario, meaning CVC had no access to debt at any cost, we believe existing undrawn revolvers and…
We believe Rupert Murdoch is fundamentally wrong in his view of Newspaper and Television Station secular growth prospects. Our mistake in having a BUY on News Corp., despite this view, was not comprehending the degree to which these assets could decline within a single 12-month period. While consumers across the globe will always have a…
Despite dramatic cuts in auto advertising at both the national and local level in 2008, 2009 is shaping up to be an even worse year. A news release from Nielsen (Click here) states that year/year spending from the Big Three (GM, Ford and Chrysler) dropped by only 6%-22% for the first seven months of 2008. …
Sumner Redstone’s difficulties with National Amusements (NAI) became public knowledge less than six weeks ago, when NAI indicated it would be forced to sell a portion of its Viacom and CBS holdings. While NAI appeared as if it might gain some breathing room from a stock market bounce, the value of NAI’s public assets (excluding…
Despite the global economic concerns, subscriber growth continues to chug right along in China, which is not surprising given the relatively low penetration in that market. China Unicom reported its third highest level of monthly subscriber net additions in October of 1.3 million, which grew its customer base by 12.7% to 132 million. China Mobile…
The wireless industry in Brazil posted impressive growth in October driven primarily by Telemar’s aggressive launch in Sao Paulo. Industry net subscriber additions of 4.0 million in October were 1.5 million above our estimate, and lifted industry penetration to 75.5%. This was the third strongest month of net additions ever recorded in Brazil. All of…
Myspace’s homepage redesign continues to draw big name advertisers. Our 8/26/08 blog post (Click here) discussed how Myspace’s new home page had drawn advertisers such as Sprint, Verizon and Wendy’s, with the latter using Myspace for a interactive ad campaign. In similar fashion, Wal-Mart today launched its own interactive advertising experience on the Myspace home page (Click here), allowing…
We are reducing our FY (Sept) 2009 EPS estimate for Disney to $1.90 from $2.20, to reflect a far more bearish scenario for 2009, than we modeled in our October 31st estimate cut (Note: on 10/31, our $2.20 was 8% below consensus, with our new estimates now 13% below updated consensus of $2.18). We downgraded…
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