The issue of Univision retransmission consent came up during both Univision and Time Warner Cable’s Q2 2008 conference calls (while Univision is private, it holds a conference call for debt holders and the transcript is available on streetevents.com). We continue to believe Univision’s decision to shift from “must-carry” to negotiated retransmission consent will prove problematic…
Q2 results reported last night did show some glimmer of upside relative to our estimates but our estimates are well below consensus and it was not enough for us to change our outlook. Click here for a copy of our note. Click here for a table that details actual results versus our estimates and changes to…
Back on March 19, 2008 (see blog post), we discussed our concerns with Warner Music’s corporate governance, particularly the dramatic increase in annual compensation and golden parachute for its #2 executive, Lyor Cohen, Chairman and CEO, Recorded Music. Fresh off the $30 million Bulldog acquisition debacle, Mr. Cohen was given a 100% increase in base…
We are continually being asked one question: “Why have the Dolans suddenly become shareholder-friendly?” Not only has Jim Dolan (along with CVC’s COO and CFO) begun a multi-city investor tour today, but Cablevision has agreed to speak at investor conferences in the fall, and even issued a press release detailing their plans to explore several…
We increased our price target to $11 from $10 as a result of the cancellation of the Convertible offering which when removed from our model increases our free cash flow per share to $1.10 from $1.00. Click here for a copy of our note.
Discovery (DISCA) will be the final cable network company to report 2Q results (sometime next week, with double digit advertising growth expected). With results in from nine companies so far, we are encouraged that all but two reported double digit increases in advertising revenues; particularly in light of the weakening economic environment. While we expect…
In early 2008, we became very concerned with Cablevision’s acquisition strategy, particularly its plans to expand Madison Square Garden Entertainment’s live entertainment footprint. After the Chicago Theater acquisition in late 2007, the Dolans (and MSGE CEO, Jay Marciano) appeared set to make a sizable investment in AEG Live and pursue a live-entertainment venue roll-up strategy. …
Following Cablevision CEO, Jim Dolan’s shareholder-friendly comments on last week’s 2Q conference call, we have learned that he plans to meet with CVC’s top 20 shareholders individually next week (along with Tom Rutledge, COO, and Michael Huseby, CFO). We view this as a clear sign that the Dolan family is seriously interested in some form…
While our initial thesis (pre-IPO) on NCM proved accurate given the strength of NCM’s 2007 results, we significantly underestimated the volatility in NCM’s business, particularly as management was more focused on maintaining ad rates (above a minimum level) than driving utilization. We believed the uniqueness of NCMI’s value proposition for brands/advertisers would rapidly drive utilization,…
We initiated coverage of the Nextel Communications bonds with a Buy rating based on our belief that there is reasonable probability the iDEN business will be sold this year and that the company will elect to call or tender for those bonds rather than endure legal challenges if the buyer tried to assume the bonds. …
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