We continue to believe that the holding company structure of DISCA will collapse before year-end 2007 (see our blog post from 9/21/07, click here), with the consolidation serving as a positive catalyst for DISCA shares. What might a consolidation look like? We estimate the value of Ascent Media (100% owned by DISCA) and net cash…
Back in February 2007, Disney’s theme park management team discussed its plan to explore “blue sky concepts” to extend its business beyond its core theme park and cruise ship operations (Disney has already announced a doubling of its cruise-ship business since the meeting). Management highlighted destination resorts, retail dining/entertainment complexes and waterparks as possible brand…
We are reducing our rating on DWA from BUY to NEUTRAL (and removing our price target) due to three factors: Increasing concern over expectations for DWA’s upcoming film, The Bee Movie, which we fear will skew older than a typical CGI family film and may not “travel” as well as expected overseas. We are reducing…
We are growing increasingly concerned with the health of the DVD business. U.S. consumer spending on home entertainment was down about 5% in first-half 2007, and we believe that our 2006 prediction that 2007 would be the first year that consumer spending on DVDs (within the US) actually declines could actually come true. We are…
There are a few stories and quotes today out of Brazil that could alarm investors but which we believe are largely rhetoric. Earlier in the day Dow Jones quoted Communications Minister Helio Costa as saying that “revenues from cellphone networks need to be reduced” He goes on to complain about pre-paid rates versus post paid.…
While all the recent industry “buzz” has surrounded Facebook, Myspace remains the industry juggernaut, now generating over $40 million of revenue per month (with rapid growth among the 12-17 year old demographic during this past summer). Following the attention garnered by Facebook’s cleaner layout and privacy controls, Myspace has enabled a new user home page…
Historically, Charter’s bonds (we use the 11% 2015 $4bn bond as a proxy) and equity have had a high correlation (93% since March ’06); so it’s worth noting when the two meaningfully diverge. Typically the bonds lead the stock, which occurred at the end of May (negative divergence) and a positive divergence is underway currently…
Two positive events occurred yesterday evening for Discovery: John Malone, DISCA/DISCB’s Chairman and CEO purchased stock in open-market transactions and DirecTV launched the Discovery HD-simulcast networks. John Malone purchased just over $2 mm worth of DISCB stock in the open market on 9/25 and 9/26 (76,200 shares at an average price of $27.71). Click here…
Anatel, the Brazilian regulator, released wireless market share data for August. It previously reported better than expected industry growth of 2.4 million net subscriber additions versus our estimate of 1.7 million. All implied subscriber numbers are tracking to beat our quarterly estimates based on stronger than forecast industry subscriber growth. (NII Holdings is not included…
CHTR has announced (click here) the specific terms of its previously filed (modestly revised terms on 9/14) plan to refinance its remaining convertible notes outstanding. Following the pricing period, CHTR is now set to offer $543 mm of 6.5% converts due 2027 in exchange for $413 mm 5.875% converts due 2009. We view CHTR’s refinancing…
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