Podcasts – Page 12 – LightShed Partners

Ep. 226: Is T-Mobile/Charter Next? Will Disney Drive Skinny Bundles and Will Google Replicate SearchGPT?

[0:00] Hail, Hail.
[2:01] First world problems, LightShed edition.
[6:22] Come for our economic commentary, stay for our TMT takes.
[8:56] Fiber Wars and the convergence of connectivity.
[15:14] Will Disney drive a smaller bundle reality?
[24:12] Oasis ticketing controversy is more a PR and demand issue than anything else.
[29:54] Verizon leaning on price to deliver revenue.
[32:14] Snap’s chat ads are a risk worth taking.
[34:54] Disney leaks interesting, but lack meaning without context.
[36:50] Lower prices combat PPV piracy not lawsuits.
[39:50] Lionsgate cracked the code on piracy.
[40:26] Amazon is not saving RSNs.
[45:09] Will X users want to watch content on the big screen?
[51:32] Walt is cheating on us: listen to the Autonomy Markets podcast on Tuesday afternoons.
[52:28] How will SearchGPT change SEO marketing?
[54:20] When will Google replicate SearchGPT?
[55:19] Which business model is more durable: Netflix or Spotify?
[58:32] ESPN should focus on betting content, not being a branded sportsbook.
[1:01:16] Fly, Eagles Fly.
[1:02:08] Given to Fly.

Ep. 225: Apple’s AI Struggle, TradeDesk TV OS, and ESPN Sports Dashboard

[0:00] Champagne Supernova.
[3:30] Brandon has very expressive eyebrows.
[4:48] Nvidia watch party.
[6:14] Can Apple drive upgrades if AI features are delayed?
[10:24] Will regulators allow Big Tech to work together to break Google’s search monopoly?
[13:49] Last Paramount segment for awhile.
[16:24] NBA says Turner never had streaming rights to match.
[20:18] Why a Trade Desk tvOS makes sense, even with limited adoption.
[26:30] The race to text from space.
[29:34] Should legacy media rip the bundling band-aid off already?
[36:44] Fox could be biggest winner from smaller bundles.
[38:25] ESPN’s “Where to Watch” has value… but where is Tulane?
[49:31] Why add Gotham to a vMVPD instead of just subscribing to a traditional MVPD?
[53:07] Uber is the platform of choice for autonomy companies to gain scale.
[54:15] Rich can do clean pullups but cannot play tennis.
[54:47] ESPN wants to run the table on sports rights as they focus on a DTC future.
[58:15] Why hasn’t the UFC’s Sphere event sold better?
[1:00:31] Perplexity lends itself best to an impressions-based model.
[1:02:34] Analysts are too busy saying ‘Good Quarter’ to actually read press releases.
[1:04:20] Don’t Look Back in Anger.

Ep. 224: Paramount’s Saga, Uber’s Autonomy, and YouTube and Netflix Advertising

[0:00] We Bring The BOOM!
[2:13] Rate this podcast on the booms scale.
[6:37] Walt is not the TikTok czar anymore.
[8:02] Venu ruling won’t save the industry.
[14:04] Peacock’s Olympics investment shows early ROI.
[18:26] Battle for Paramount keeping Rich occupied.
[23:05] Is the Bronfman bid a sign of Shari’s seller’s remorse?
[24:47] Which bidder do Paramount investors prefer?
[25:36] YouTube’s consumer-friendly advertising change.
[27:42] YouTube TV Sunday Tix improves.
[29:14] Should Snap deemphasize moonshots hardware?
[36:08] Uber plugs in frenemy Cruise and why similar partnerships are likely.
[41:14] Should Disney’s next CEO come from the outside?
[45:05] Netflix leans further into programmatic ads.
[47:07] U2 > Postcards, but collective must be prioritized.
[50:16] Yet another sign that Spotify has won podcasting.
[52:02] Are publishers smart to take the near-term LLM dollars?
[54:51] What content will Chick-fil-A’s streaming service offer on Sundays?
[58:24] The Megalopolis trailer is embarrassing.
[59:49] Boom, Boom, Boom, Boom!!

Ep. 223: Can DoJ Enable AI Competition, Bronfman vs. Ellison and a Sphere Assist from MSG Networks

[0:00] Been Caught Stealing.
[0:57] Rich doesn’t know what a dog bark sounds like.
[1:30] A dog race to catch the garbage truck.
[4:51] Irritation at higher prices is different from economic weakness.
[6:48] DraftKings had no choice but to abandon its winnings’ tax.
[10:01] DOJ’s forward-looking policy puts Google in crosshairs.
[17:04] If you have a good alternative to Outlook, please let us know.
[17:58] Does Google’s AI lead over Apple matter?
[24:55] Apple is ahead in satellite connectivity as emergency SOS finally arrives on Android.
[27:54] Who does Shari want to own Paramount, Ellison or Bronfman (link)?
[31:22] Roku has not committed to join Bronfman’s Paramount bid.
[33:23] Universal Studios discounting getting more aggressive prior to Epic Universe.
[36:54] MSGN bankruptcy is inevitable, even if not during this workout.
[39:36] Search ads are low-hanging fruit for Roblox.
[42:35] The impact of Epic’s return to mobile on mobile competitors is TBD.
[43:35] Eric Schmidt’s WFH views are not grounded in reality.
[46:13] Fanatics’ take on “the rent is too damn high.”
[47:15] The Malone/Zaslav double entendre.
[48:31] Stealin’.

Ep. 222: DOJ vs. Google, Venu’s Cannibalization, and the Lumen AI

[0:00] Sweet Emotion.
[3:47] Rich explains the Yen carry trade.
[5:53] When did debt become an asset?
[13:26] The economy is bifurcating both consumers and the experience economy.
[15:27] The perfect storm pressuring Orlando theme parks.
[22:16] Legacy media using DTC price increases to force subscribers into bundles.
[26:17] Has ESPN pushed UFC PPV pricing too far?
[30:01] TKO appears to be expanding Saudi relationship.
[32:01] Big win for DOJ could be a big hit to Apple’s bottom line.
[36:02] We are testing Apple Intelligence and doubt consumers will pay for it.
[40:40] Breaking down the Lumen AI fiber hype.
[43:43] Venu admits most subscribers will come from existing MVPD/vMVPD ecosystem.
[49:43] Google believes in Reddit and you should too.
[53:42] CTV competition pressuring CPMs.
[56:06] Lack of consumer revolt gives Apple TV+ an opening for an ad tier.
[58:15] Which stadium should LightShed sponsor?
[59:47] Dream On.

Ep. 221: AI Siri is Live, Zuck on Ad Agencies, and Who Could Venu Hurt?

[0:00] Good Luck, Babe!
[1:40] Brandon is now a Chappell Roan fan.
[4:49] Market timing is tough.
[8:10] Will AI Siri live up to the high expectations?
[13:37] How is Apple going to grow services 14%?
[17:02] No need for an ad agency, just give all your ad dollars to Meta and let AI do the rest (link).
[22:20] Love seeing Reddit take a stand on AI publicly.
[25:20] USA’s failed WWF lawsuit back in 2000 is problematic precedent for Turner’s NBA lawsuit (link).
[29:07] Will Venu cannibalize cable/satellite subs vs. growing the pie?
[32:12] Was ACP overhyped?
[34:39] Net Neutrality reinstatement blocked as first casualty of recent Chevron ruling.
[36:33] Roku’s reimagined home screen early success will lead to more experimentation and revenue.
[41:51] UFC antitrust cases are minor overhang but are likely to become a non-issue.
[44:12] The NFL always wins.
[46:14] The UFC should make Sphere a regular event.
[48:52] It’s about time a secondary ticketing company faced the legal music.
[50:49] SCOOP: Reuters fooled by Apex Capital “bid.”
[54:00] Red Wine Supernova.

Episode 220: July 26, 2024

[0:00] Highway to Hell.
[2:55] Did Axl actually hit the notes?
[5:01] Investors need to recalculate their election odds and in turn, regulatory impact.
[7:39] Is WBD suing NBA because it wants the rights or to get paid to go away?
[17:15] We do not expect the NBA to settle.
[23:36] Legacy media bar has lowered from growth to long-term survival.
[27:51] Moving sports rights to big tech is not consumer unfriendly.
[29:09] RSNs are not dead. Yet.
[31:37] Why Meta believes AI spending is critical.
[33:26] How long can AI startups burn cash at this magnitude?
[38:05] What will be the impact of SearchGPT on Google?
[42:53] Glass fiber internet coming for copper internet.
[48:06] Was Charter’s programming cost guide an ominous sign for Paramount?
[50:05] Reddit content is becoming more valuable.
[52:09] Google keeping cookies is a real win for the digital ad industry.
[54:07] Amazon Prime is pressuring the entire CTV ad marketplace.
[58:07] The Kamala-for-Biden trade is great for local TV and digital ad spending.
[1:01:05] Spotify taking streaming music share but why did UMG growth decel so dramatically?
[1:05:13] Is Orlando vacation booking activity falling off a cliff?
[1:08:11] Succession Season 5 is happening in real life.
[1:10:23] Okie From Muskogee.

Episode 219: July 19, 2024

[0:00] Gimme Shelter.
[2:15] It’s good to be home.
[6:05] Will Trump be pro-TikTok and anti-Meta if he wins election?
[9:17] Project 2025 does not have chaotic FCC/FTC rhetoric.
[13:09] One word defines our current political landscape: unpredictable.
[15:42] We believe WBD is bluffing and will not try to match Amazon.
[20:46] WBD may sell assets, but it is not splitting up (link).
[22:03] No buyers for dying cable network assets.
[23:21] The new NBA deal gives Dolan cover to walk away from MSGN.
[26:48] More signs that Disney crushed Charter.
[28:45] Billing bundles do not solve a consumer problem.
[32:50] The rejected TKO settlement poses headline risk but will be meaningless.
[34:37] More fiber deals from T-Mobile make sense as we march towards vertical integration.
[37:09] The last Disneyland strike happened in 1984.
[38:22] Disney hack exposes Disney+ revs by country, Genie+ daily revenues and much more.
[39:40] Will the Teamsters bring Hollywood back to a standstill?
[41:49] Is Apple TV+ finally admitting they need catalog content?
[42:36] Tensions are high (both in the country and on the pod).
[45:13] Tribute.

Episode 218: July 12, 2024

[0:00] If I Only Had A Brain.
[2:30] If your child is fussy, leave the restaurant.
[4:14] Should Delta’s consumer softening worry Disney and Sphere investors?
[12:30] Is T-Mobile struggling to deliver FWA subs or flexing network improvements to take more share from cable?
[15:00] An old friend arrives at Netflix.
[18:55] Can Skydance slow the decline of linear TV where others have failed?
[23:40] Can Skydance succeed in streaming without a global Paramount+?
[26:44] Hard to imagine anyone topping Skydance’s Paramount bid.
[30:00] Rich would be perfect attendee for Sun Valley (says Rich).
[30:57] Zas’ political views mean he’s open for business.
[37:33] TV station groups need an administration change.
[40:37] Microsoft and Apple trying to fend off AI antitrust scrutiny.
[42:20] Walt #unpacks Samsung’s AI and satellite texting.
[47:07] Bonsoir!
[47:55] We can’t wait to see how WaPo A/I chatbots answers complex questions.
[49:59] Tesla delaying the robotaxi unveiling to October could be positive.
[51:07] Xbox remains committed to subscription, but it feels like a longshot.
[52:24] The potential WBD/NBA lawsuit saga is nearing its end.
[53:45] The CW is the perfect demographic for Bill Belichick.
[54:24] Yet another sign that Spotify’s margins are going higher.
[56:33] Elon and Randy Johnson have more in common than we thought.
[58:08] My Little Pony Theme Song.

Episode 217: July 5, 2024

[0:00] Black Math.
[1:38] Live from all over the globe.
[3:25] What can we learn from Nike’s woes about Disney and Apple?
[6:50] How will Universal’s new gate impact Walt Disney World?
[9:03] Wake Rich when NAI/Skydance is actually official.
[13:50] A CBS/WBD deal would need Paramount/Skydance to fall apart again.
[17:47] Is Apple the wolf in the OpenAI henhouse?
[20:38] FCC’s pro-competition phone unlocking proposal.
[22:50] Is ESPN the right international partner for domestic sports leagues?
[25:55] Bundling is overcomplicating legacy media’s digital ambitions
[28:20] We continue to expect Dana Walden as Disney’s next CEO.
[29:07] Even more proof WBD has moved on from the NBA.
[30:59] NBA team valuations will soon have no near-term positive catalysts.
[34:15] Excitement building for sat to cell texting coming later this year.
[37:46] Jim Dolan going all in on SPHR stock with new employment agreement.
[39:31] It’s hard to believe Threads’ engagement is meaningfully growing.
[41:46] Meta Ray-Bans are an A+ product.
[44:06] Real-world commerce should significantly boost Roblox’s EPS in time.
[47:09] Diamond sports is done.
[50:25] No one has a better PR and image consultant than Zuck.
[52:44] Blue.