Podcasts – Page 14 – LightShed Partners

Episode 206: April 19, 2024

[0:00] Jessica.
[2:50] Phish being Phish.
[7:48] The courts will decide if TikTok is banned, not Congress (and not until post-election).
[14:27] You have to laugh at the irony of China arguing in favor of free speech.
[15:43] Worst case Live Nation DoJ outcome might be positive for investors.
[24:02] Despite regulatory hurdles, Sony interest in Paramount makes Board’s job harder.
[27:25] Why are there foreign ownership rules on TV but not internet companies?
[30:36] Less Netflix financial detail is frustrating.
[38:32] How important are cable nets in the NBA’s future?
[43:43] Another sign of easing competition in broadband.
[48:03] Will audiobooks ease Spotify’s statutory royalty rates on music?
[51:34] Zuck launches an AI-powered engagement flywheel.
[53:50] A chain is the latest accessory to Zuck’s humanization quest.
[56:06] Blue Sky.

Episode 205: April 12, 2024

[0:00] Psycho Killer.
[4:25] Does heat shrink leather?
[8:40] Skydance is looking to scale Paramount+, not shutter it.
[13:21] Paramount annual meeting timing nullifies theory on Board departures.
[15:53] Rich cannot imagine life without a public Paramount.
[17:03] Will Women’s NCAA ratings remain elevated in a post-Caitlin Clark world?
[22:40] Amazon could apply Netflix’s WWE playbook to international NBA rights.
[26:11] Netflix’s rec engine will juice WWE’s viewership.
[29:04] AI chips in Macs not necessarily a prelude to AI smartphone revenue.
[34:23] No intimacy with AI avatars pushing products.
[38:40] Taylor Swift changes the economy, others don’t.
[40:29] Neither TikTok nor UMG have budged, now what?
[41:30] Yet more proof that a superpremium Spotify tier is coming.
[45:23] YouTube TV spraying users with terrible ads.
[48:07] PubMatic will expedite the unlock of Roblox’s ads biz.
[50:01] We expect construction on three more Spheres within three years.
[59:48] Will live events build the Fanatics consumer brand?
[1:06:03] Brandon Ross, CNBC!
[1:08:30] Runaway Train.

Episode 204: April 5, 2024

[0:00] Total Eclipse of the Heart.
[2:30] What is the millennial term for eclipse?
[6:15] The Apple red flags are staring you in the face.
[12:29] What’s best for the Redstones may not be best for Paramount shareholders.
[22:36] NBCU and WBD are not merging on Monday.
[24:12] Why investors are increasingly concerned Turner will not retain NBA rights.
[28:10] Bifurcating audiobook pricing will be positive for Spotify and music labels.
[35:06] We cannot get away from the net neutrality topic.
[41:17] Expect Liberty to run the F1 playbook with MotoGP (including Ride to Survive).
[45:00] Disney is fully committed to ESPN and will not sell off or spin the asset.
[48:50] The upcoming Comcast renewal is the real test for Diamond, not Charter.
[54:50] Roku is searching for creative ways to drive incremental ad inventory.
[56:51] You may not like TikTok shopping, but has it impacted your usage?
[59:57] Would you pay for better search?
[1:03:58] YouTube’s contradictory stance on training AI models.
[1:05:35] Will movies eventually resemble video games?
[1:08:42] LightShed 3:16.
[1:09:12] Black Hole Sun.

Episode 203: March 29, 2024

[0:00] Little Bunny Foo Foo.
[0:15] King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard.
[3:30] Do not cuddle with a wombat.
[8:12] Surprise! One of Apple’s staunchest defenders sold the stock.
[11:22] AI features in Apple’s “biggest iOS update ever” are table stakes not revenue drivers.
[16:03] Paramount’s bad debt news is “good” for buyers, but what about NFL?
[18:36] Senate trying to craft TikTok bill to hold up better to legal challenges.
[24:29] AI will help close the gap, a bit, between UGC and Hollywood.
[29:24] Should the NCAA ban prop betting?
[36:22] Rising sports betting tax rates will hurt subscale operators cementing oligopoly.
[39:11] Takeaways from the Satellite conference in DC.
[44:15] Disney+/Hulu integration could lead to an even bigger check to Comcast.
[52:57] Do not overthink the GTA 6 release timing.
[56:09] Spotify winning audio wars by expanding to new verticals.
[58:24] Spotify’s opportunistic reaction to the UMG/TikTok standoff.
[59:35] Surprisingly low Peacock churn post-NFL exclusive supports an aggressive NBA bid.
[1:02:42] Can ESPN become the dashboard linking to everyone’s content?
[1:07:14] Why Mark is switching to Fubo.
[1:09:26] Florida’s interesting freedom interpretation.
[1:11:26] Iger has dealt with political battles far better than Chapek.
[1:13:01] Hopping into the three-day weekend.
[1:14:13] Little Bunny Foo Foo.

Episode 202: March 22, 2024

[0:00] Ride Captain Ride.
[7:10] LightShed Uber rating update.
[8:05] Apple and Google look to maintain mobile duopoly in the age of AI.
[11:49] DOJ bringing antitrust case against Apple.
[16:12] Paramount won’t sell the studio and doesn’t need M&A to become arms dealer.
[22:01] Journalists don’t understand enterprise value.
[23:34] Paramount+ will not exist in twelve months.
[25:34] ACP (broadband) program unlikely to get extended.
[29:45] We expect Schumer to bring the TikTok bill to a vote.
[32:18] Why is there no advertising cancel culture on TikTok?
[34:42] Reddit unveils native ad unit, better ad targeting is next.
[42:00] CFP Title game to ABC – more proof cable TV is dying.
[45:52] Disney likely to play it safe with next CEO choice.
[48:54] Disney+ overpaid for Taylor Swift.
[52:36] Why does Apple TV+ exist if Apple is not going big on content?
[54:24] Roblox Hunt data is unexciting but more community events on the horizon.
[56:24] What publishers are willing to buy Embracer’s many available assets?
[58:50] The best reality TV is migrating from linear to digital.
[1:01:49] As another overhang disappears, it’s hard not to be bullish on TKO.
[1:03:28] DirecTV should have let customers drop local stations long ago.
[1:06:44] LinkedIn loves to experiment…but games is a stretch.
[1:08:30] Down on Music Row.

Episode 201: March 15, 2024

[0:00] Discoproof.
[1:27] Walt is doing a lot of reading.
[5:22] PSA to listeners: if we use your suggested topic, we’ll send you merch.
[6:15] Will the Trump flip flop fuel a TikTok ban?
[12:03] Will Byron Allen bid on TikTok?
[18:36] See you in court, zero chance ByteDance sells TikTok.
[21:49] AI unlikely to drive an iPhone supercycle.
[25:44] It will take years before AI’s transformations are truly felt.
[27:00] Does Apple TV+ with ads signal bigger sports play?
[33:10] Will WBD lose the NBA?
[34:23] Charter likes their Disney deal, now onto Paramount.
[36:25] T-Mobile partnering to build fiber would add another cable competitor.
[38:49] The Hunt could be the first of many Roblox platform-wide events.
[41:48] Music videos fuel Spotify’s ad strategy.
[43:47] LinkedIn is an increasingly valuable news source.
[48:37] Are you still using Threads?
[50:32] In a Don Lemon vs. Elon fight, there are no winners.
[51:44] Pete Distad is a great hire, but how many people want a partial sports bundle?
[53:01] Can Fubo make money on RSNs?
[55:32] Reddit specializes in creating communities that spend money in interesting ways.
[57:17] Don’t demonize short sellers, just execute.
[1:00:10] Bend The Rules.

Episode 200: March 8, 2024

[0:00] Celebration Day.
[1:15] Fitting start to Episode 200: Rich is upset with Brandon’s song choice.
[5:00] Phishing expeditions, courtesy of our listeners.
[10:03] Could a TiKTok divestiture ultimately harm US competitors?
[19:41] TikTok-centric FACAA bill could have Temu/Shein implications.
[23:17] Apple likely to monetize AI through services revenue, but at a low take rate.
[33:39] Apple invites regulatory scrutiny with its antagonistic strategy.
[37:43] Meta is tired of living in Apple/Google’s world and wants to own the AR/VR OS.
[39:22] Is the Winners’ Bundle a big nothing or will it open “Pandora’s Box?”
[47:22] Nextel’s cobbled together spectrum now worth billions to T-Mobile.
[50:58] Iger has a late epiphany on games but already took the right first step.
[53:42] Increased brand presence via “The Hunt” should benefit both devs and Roblox.
[56:16] Why carry FX when you can watch Shogun on Hulu same-day?
[1:00:20] TBD when, but Netflix putting the building blocks together for live sports.
[1:03:40] Dolan’s share purchases indicate near-term room for SPHR stock to run.
[1:06:01] TKO stock is inexpensive and substantially de-risked.
[1:07:43] truTV sports block is WBD’s latest creative way to reduce costs.
[1:09:37] WWE should move SmackDown to Wednesday nights.
[1:12:43] Our elders came alive this week.
[1:14:54] Dune 2 box office over/under: $800 million.
[1:15:30] Keep the weekly content suggestions coming on Thursdays.
[1:16:10] Thank You.

Episode 199: March 1, 2024

[0:00] Mirror in the Bathroom.
[1:10] Warning – Brandon’s voice is back.
[2:42] PSA: we will now be asking listeners/watchers for Podcast topics.
[4:22] David Gandler evokes The Sopranos.
[8:35] Generative AI feels more like tables stakes for Apple than a new revenue driver.
[15:48] An extra 50k Apple Vision Pros isn’t telling us if Apple has a new product category.
[17:05] Gemini’s issues illustrate the dangers of training/biasing AI platforms.
[21:32] If Rich had to fire one TMT CEO, who would it be?
[24:11] Focus on Paramount’s distribution renewals, not an unlikely transaction.
[25:58] Why Brandon believes Warner Bros. should buy Paramount.
[29:55] Who is going to get to AGI first?
[34:32] YouTube TV should overtake Dish/Sling subs by summer 2024.
[38:14] Ex-growth companies in mature industries are acquisitive.
[43:28] Dolan sees more upside in SPHR than his other assets.
[47:39] Is TikTok growth slowing due to loss of Universal Music or its pivot to shopping?
[52:13] I just want you to STFU.
[53:48] Ticketmaster’s biggest problem is PR, not its business model.
[56:15] Netflix and Disney hire/promote film execs with completely different backgrounds.
[58:42] Expect TKO to eventually absorb some of Vince’s shares.
[1:00:16] When Rich buys back into crypto, you’ll know it’s the top.
[1:01:23] The Tears of a Clown.

Episode 198: February 23, 2024

[0:00] The Sound of Silence.
[1:30] Brandon has no voice, but all that matters this week is Nvidia.
[3:41] Sora and AI video will add to pressure on the “fat” middle of professional content creation.
[12:03] Google’s Gemini integration across its products will be table stakes going forward.
[20:37] Walmart/Vizio should enable superior ad measurement and targeting, akin to Amazon.
[27:11] Why is Kayo powering the Winners’ Bundle instead of ESPN or Hulu tech?
[31:44] Will other distributors follow Fubo’s sports bundle lawsuit?
[33:26] Comcast’s Peacock in no rush to partner with Paramount+.
[38:59] Unlocked second SIMs should be required following AT&T’s network chaos.
[43:25] Is Reddit trying to go public on AI vs. Advertising hype?
[50:15] ESPN’s terrible app gives Apple an opportunity.
[54:18] Iger and Pitaro should start lowering their CFP bid – no other bidders close.
[58:15] Why Legere should be Iger’s Successor.
[59:24] Gamers still do not want video game subscriptions.
[1:01:36] Is all press, good press for Fanatics?
[1:06:41] Speak Softly, Love.

Episode 197: February 16, 2024

[0:00] Blue Skies.
[2:10] By the time you read this, Rich will have worn his Vision Pro on a plane.
[5:45] Lyft’s typo missed by thousands of eyes.
[10:26] Will putting sports on streaming really attract the younger generation to watch/pay?
[15:26] Speculated Winners’ Bundle CEO show Disney/Fox/WBD are serious.
[18:46] Upcoming NBA rights deal will set the paradigm for sports viewing going forward.
[21:10] Walmart would buy Vizio to take advantage of huge CTV ad opportunity.
[27:45] PSA: stop overanalyzing body language.
[29:28] Not shocking, Buffett beat Paramount to selling.
[31:06] Cable legitimizing wireless broadband competition.
[33:31] Should Zuck have even acknowledged the Vision Pro?
[37:55] Despite tech improvements, streaming lag remains a major sports issue.
[40:46] Hard for ESPN Bet to compete with DraftKings and FanDuel.
[43:32] Who wants to sublicense CFP playoffs from Disney? WBD? Amazon?
[46:57] If traditional search is the onramp to LLM utilization, can OpenAI ever catch Google?
[50:03] Despite earnings call success, Disney activists are not going away.
[53:50] Don’t blame lack of police enforcement on robotaxi backlash.
[55:53] Brandon attending one of his favorite events of the year: NBA Tech Summit.
[56:01] Say Yes to Heaven (Dot Major Remix).