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LightShed’s Walter Piecyk on Decoder Podcast: How SpaceX Breaks the Wireless Oligopoly

Episode 126: Sept 30, 2022

  • [0:00] Fantastic Voyage.
  • [1:24] Imagining Rich’s midlife crisis.
  • [4:17] Has the weak global economy finally caught up with Apple?
  • [12:11] Is Amazon aging down the NFL?
  • [14:45] Was Bob Iger watching Aaron Judge live?
  • [17:30] New York AG’s complete misunderstanding of the TV industry.
  • [20:35] Warner Bros. Discovery isn’t for sale (for now).
  • [25:31] Netflix is cutting costs, not rethinking broader strategy.
  • [28:56] Dahmer killing Andor.
  • [33:05] Inertia is the glue holding the cable bundle together.
  • [37:07] Is Biden’s handling of TikTok friendly or inert?
  • [39:04] Hulu+++.
  • [41:09] ] Lionsgate begging for a transaction.
  • [46:01] WWE ratings improvement.
  • [50:58] Google’s Stadia did not improve upon the console experience.
  • [55:45] If the MSFT deal breaks, Blizzard’s reemergence would be critical to ATVI stock.
  • [57:53] Can Netflix be social? 
  • [1:00:21] A brand’s Roblox presence must be fun to be successful.
  • [1:03:05] Rich shouldn’t have bought a Bored Ape after all.
  • [1:05:16] Meta announces hiring freeze yet legacy media still won’t discuss weaknesses.
  • [1:07:22] Gangsta’s Paradise.
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Episode 125: Sept 23, 2022

  • [0:00] Bullet with Butterfly Wings.
  • [3:53] LightShed Dinner #2: The Roast of TMT.
  • [10:03] A Fubo upgrade brought to you by hopeful bankers.
  • [13:11] Where is the marketing machine for Aaron Judge?
  • [16:34] Must-See TV on Thursdays is now Amazon, not NBC.
  • [21:51] Tech is treating this downturn with more fear than legacy media.
  • [24:56] Is Meta baselessly hated or are they anti-consumer?
  • [28:13] Twitch’s headline was misleading; creators continue to be paid more annually.
  • [31:29] Will paying creators more help Shorts catch TikTok? 
  • [33:50] Robert Kyncl brings a UGC/creator mentality to Warner Music.
  • [35:36] Apple Music may be more infiltrated in our society than generally believed.
  • [37:49] Is Spotify’s bundled audio vision a mistake?
  • [44:06] GTA 6 leak changes nothing about Take-Two’s future trajectory.
  • [45:46] We do not know whether MSFT/ATVI gets through EU regulatory scrutiny.
  • [47:15] ATVI or no ATVI, Microsoft will scale gaming through acquisition.
  • [48:11] Can you break a major show that is exclusive to Roku?
  • [54:06] Consumers are watching more Netflix than investors believe. 
  • [59:25] We are bullish on WWE’s new content strategy.
  • [1:02:42] We will miss Tom Rutledge’s earnings calls.
  • [1:08:08] Shana Tova.
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Episode 124: Sept 16, 2022

  • [0:00] As It Was.
  • [1:30] What’s the overlap between Harry Styles and LightShed Podcast listeners?
  • [6:46] Amazon’s first NFL broadcast was a success.
  • [10:42] Will channel changing friction increase Amazon’s average viewership?
  • [14:40] Spin or no spin, ESPN will have to cut costs.
  • [20:34] Disney will own 100% of Hulu.
  • [24:20] Verizon’s strategy if it can’t grow.
  • [29:40] T-Mobile’s definition of big.
  • [31:50] Streaming consolidation is needed for broad pricing power.
  • [37:54] TikTok wants to be the de facto social/entertainment platform.
  • [39:38] Comparing Reels and TikTok usage is comparing apples and oranges.
  • [43:20] Roblox is a large long-term opportunity but investors shouldn’t expect much in next few years.
  • [47:52] Disney advertising is opt out and Netflix is opt in.
  • [50:09] Apple needs far more kids/family content.
  • [54:18] Does Roku change of control actually mean anything?
  • [57:03] Snap could play a real role in the creator economy.
  • [58:50] Vision Fund: if at first (and second) you don’t succeed, try again.
  • [1:00:15] Happy anniversary Brandon!
  • [1:01:00] I’m Good (Blue).

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Episode 123: Sept. 9th 2022

  • [0:00] Another One Bites the Dust.
  • [1:14] Welcome Olivia!
  • [3:41] Rich’s redeye selfies are back.
  • [8:50] Why is Sunday Ticket still not done? 
  • [10:26] Apple, SpaceX and cold feet.
  • [17:28] Dish’s big win with iPhone 14.
  • [20:03] Bob Iger’s Twitter bot criticisms are very different than Elon’s.
  • [26:56] Snap has quickly built a real subscription business.
  • [29:56] Snap’s DR focus reaccelerating growth
  • [31:37] Could CFIUS remove TikTok from the US? 
  • [36:17] Will a pullback in streaming spend boost theatrical budgets?
  • [42:25] Only select streaming shows should be licensed to third parties.
  • [44:50] When can we STOP talking about Hulu ownership?
  • [47:46] Is Meta’s focus on reels the reason it killed shopping?
  • [53:20] HBO would have released good Week 3 HOTD viewers.
  • [59:35] Tencent can’t improve Ubisoft’s culture.
  • [1:02:09] Exclusivity in kids content suddenly matters.
  • [1:04:55] Apple needs to invest more in its broadcasters.
  • [1:07:30] When will national sports rights deals follow local’s downward spiral?
  • [1:10:58] Fighting out of the blue corner, Mark Zuckerberg.
  • [1:12:20] Dancing Queen.
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Episode 122: Sept 2, 2022

  • [0:00] The Victors.
  • [0:45] College football is back.
  • [3:43] Netflix’s first big advertising hires blend traditional TV and digital.
  • [6:57] Is the digital ad market mature?
  • [19:03] Can subscription/commerce move the needle as ad growth slows?
  • [24:10] What innovations will Apple showcase next week?
  • [29:55] Apple TV+ now included in T-Mobile’s high-end bundle.
  • [32:51] Will national audiences seek out Thursday Night Football?
  • [38:23] Will Disney Prime monetize Disney’s superfans?
  • [41:00] The linear TV death spiral begins.
  • [44:23] Does HBO content on TNT help or hurt HBO Max?
  • [46:33] House of the Dragon week three viewership expectations.
  • [50:15] Ticketmaster has an NFT use case with fan and artist utility.
  • [52:38] It is crazy to think that dynamic pricing should not exist.
  • [56:25] T-Mobile acquires more spectrum.
  • [58:53] DC is only part of the MSFT/ATVI regulatory picture.
  • [59:46] Mobile, PC, and console gaming continue to converge.
  • [1:01:20] Twitter must solve for an edit button’s obvious problems.
  • [1:03:08] Twitter’s flirtation with an OnlyFans competitor.
  • [1:04:14] The Red and Blue.
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Episode 121: August 26, 2022

    • [0:00] Sabotage.
    • [3:26] Does this hotel have USA Today?
    • [5:51] Amazon/EA rumor debunked.
    • [11:05] Microsoft wants subscription exclusivity, not hardware exclusivity.
    • [13:12] The Law vs. Elon Musk. 
    • [19:45] T-Mobile and Starlink’s plan to cover wireless deadspots.
    • [25:38] TikTok TV should scare legacy media. 
    • [29:21] TikTok is the most shared link on Facebook Blue.
    • [31:33] House of the Dragon satisfied the community feel.
    • [35:00] Does the HBO Max discount increase LTV?
    • [38:46] Who is greenlighting films at Warner Bros. Discovery? 
    • [41:06] Warner Bros. Discovery film strategy less flexible than others.
    • [44:05] What is your favorite fast casual restaurant?
    • [46:26] Will NBC’s content move the Peacock needle?
    • [47:38] ESPN’s dispassionate analysis of sports rights.  
    • [49:31] Sports teams need tighter control of local rights as they pivot to future.
    • [52:00] Expect more concerts on 3D interactive platforms.
    • [57:07] Crazier to think AR and VR won’t be part of our lives one day than the opposite.
    • [1:05:22] Joe Rogan to Zuck: kids are obsessed with Snap.
    • [1:06:25] Albuquerque.
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Episode 120: August 19, 2022

    • [0:00] Spin the Black Circle.
    • [1:28] Rich didn’t take a selfie after his flight today.
    • [5:16] Escalating sports rights fees will lead to margin deterioration.
    • [8:11] Increased streaming competition = increased churn.
    • [11:05] Sports betting industry is still worth avoiding.
    • [16:35] Are you watching House of the Dragon this weekend?
    • [21:06] Amazon TNF over/under: 12.5m viewers.
    • [25:22] Does a smooth TNF launch help Amazon’s Sunday Ticket bid?
    • [30:54] Now is the time for Disney to make ESPN and Hulu decisions.
    • [34:14] MSGE spin will re-highlight existing asset value.
    • [39:10] Paramount+ is a good fit for Walmart’s customer.
    • [41:50] Walmart has major ad ambitions.
    • [44:20] Good, better, best: Netflix wants clear differentiation between subscription tiers.
    • [47:10] We do not expect WWE to be shopped in the near-term.
    • [53:20] Ticketmaster moat prevents scaled competitors.
    • [56:46] TikTok noise levels continue to build.
    • [59:57] Investors need to pay attention to Embracer Group… from Sweden.
    • [1:03:05] 74% of how many Bally Sports+ subs?
    • [1:07:58] Dr. Malone is WBD’s Wizard of Oz.
    • [1:13:02] Dear Apes: Adam Aron is going to dilute you.
    • [1:15:27] What Time is It?
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Episode 119: August 12, 2022

    • [0:00] Heads Will Roll.
    • [3:21] The conference call filibuster.
    • [8:15] Chapek and Zaslav are strategic opposites.
    • [20:49] The new new bundle.
    • [23:33] Attention entrepreneurs: Walt has a business idea.
    • [25:55] tvOS war enters its next phase.
    • [28:07] When does sports rights inflation topple traditional media?
    • [31:10] Last out of Tesla?
    • [33:48] Starlink rural broadband subsidy denied in surprise decision by FCC.
    • [39:01] Roblox’s age-up is working but there must be continued investment.
    • [45:08] Grand Theft Auto is bigger than The Avengers.
    • [47:28] AppLovin threatened by a Unity/ironSource merger.
    • [50:42] T-Mobile starts mopping up spectrum.
    • [54:47] Instagram still growing among US teens.
    • [1:00:16] Is TikTok search a threat to Google?
    • [1:02:59] Apple barely a factor in podcast originals.
    • [1:04:29] Amazon quietly developing the building blocks for AR.
    • [1:04:57] Between a Rock and a Hard Place.
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Episode 117: July 28, 2022

    • [0:00] The Modern Age.
    • [1:32] Happy birthday Rich!
    • [4:47] Consumers continue to shift away from products and towards experiences and services.
    • [10:10] Comcast should shutter Peacock and buy Hulu.
    • [15:35] Comcast loses broadband subs to T-Mobile and Verizon wireless.
    • [20:03] Comcast does not need Charter in the tvOS wars.
    • [22:30] Meta DAUs up, but was time spent up?
    • [24:16] Instagram moving towards video as they have been forever.
    • [29:32] Meta needs M&A to build their metaverse.
    • [32:34] Why is Meta raising the price of Quest?
    • [33:50] We do not believe that WWE wants to sell.
    • [44:34] Iridium connectivity coming to smartphones.
    • [46:40] Is Google interested in sports rights after all?
    • [50:26] FanDuel TV is a perfect content/gambling match.
    • [52:09] Spotify can still grow subs even if TikTok begins to compete.
    • [55:23] Why is Amazon raising Prime price so much in Europe?
    • [58:17] Apple’s misleading framing of the Netflix app.
    • [1:02:39] Netflix needs to build franchises but is Gray Man the place to start?
    • [1:04:05] Not Shocking: Elon wants to keep pushing the trial date.
    • [1:05:03] Let’s Go Mets.
    • [1:05:53] Happy.
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