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LightShed’s Walter Piecyk on Decoder Podcast: How SpaceX Breaks the Wireless Oligopoly

Episode 96: March 4, 2022

    • [0:00] Strawberry Letter 23.
    • [2:07] Synesthesia or psychedelics?
    • [8:36] Be kind to each other.
    • [11:20] Will Verizon’s +play be the start of the great content rebundle?
    • [23:52] Did Zas know that Warner Bros. might lose the Tolkien Estate rights?
    • [26:57] No one is going to pay for CNN+.
    • [27:28] Disney’s Disney+ 180.
    • [34:43] Netflix is going to build its games expertise through acquisition.
    • [36:58] TikTok is eating the world.
    • [39:55] Will Amazon walk from MGM or send Lina Khan a message?
    • [45:05] The flailing MLB and Charter’s RSN penetration demands.
    • [49:00] Cox closer to being a Verizon MVNO.
    • [50:15] It’s getting harder for CableCo’s to deny relevance of Wireless Home Broadband.
    • [52:41] Why Twitter could win as a podcast platform.
    • [57:07] Fanatics and Fox Sports would be a fascinating partnership.
    • [59:36] Epic’s curious acquisition.
    • [1:02:30] WWE needs younger talent.
    • [1:05:35] Microsoft has the best chance to win in cloud gaming.
    • [1:07:50] Pixelmon is another NFT rug.
    • [1:10:02] Amazon; don’t buy sports talent, open up audio.
    • [1:10:44] Disco Inferno.

Episode 94: February 18, 2022

    Episode 94: 2/18/2022

    • [0:00] Stand On The Word.
    • [2:08] Sports betting is more profitable for Walt than the sportsbooks.
    • [5:00] Investors are no longer advantaging companies spending for top line growth.
    • [10:15] The NFL is the only sport that drives viewership.
    • [11:17] Telcos pivot marketing to wireless home broadband.
    • [13:25] Coinbase’s DR and brand advertising success but does it matter?
    • [15:54] We are as bullish on Roblox as we have ever been.
    • [21:45] We remain skeptical that VR will be a true daily habit.
    • [24:21] Disney needs an acquisition to build the next generation platform.
    • [28:59] Roku talks supply chain but the market is most worried about competition.
    • [32:39] DTC losses only acceptable if there are clear projectable returns.
    • [33:45] Streaming will see a shakeout just as sports betting has.
    • [34:30] Investors need to recognize the scale of Apple’s content ambitions.
    • [37:14] Is Disney telling ESPN that you have enough sports rights?
    • [37:50] Streaming services should differentiate through content, not sports rights.
    • [38:43] Vix+ is good for Televisa Univision, but not the overall streaming space.
    • [40:06] Do consumers trust Google over Apple? Doubtful.
    • [45:05] Live entertainment is going to have a huge summer.
    • [48:15] Snap is becoming a more important utility.
    • [49:54] Thank you, Chamath.
    • [51:46] Azzurro.

Episode 93: February 11, 2022

    • [0:00] Axel F.
    • [3:20] Brandon is taking the Rams, so bet the Bengals.
    • [5:34] James Harden is going to fall in love with Philly cheesesteaks.
    • [6:36] PointsBet should have cashed out instead of partnering with NBCU.
    • [8:52] ESPN may want Sunday Ticket, but is that “best” for Disney?
    • [10:40] The NFL should prefer Apple gets Sunday Ticket to increase partners.
    • [15:35] Roblox is the perfect platform to reach young (potential) NFL fans.
    • [18:49] Disney must solve Hulu’s ownership and create a single SVOD service.
    • [25:03] Studios are getting more and more comfortable with streaming releases.
    • [27:35] How many Oscars Best Picture nominees can you name?
    • [31:02] Warner Bros. Discovery should increase HBO Max’s value, not its price.
    • [36:12] Most sports fans will stay in the bundle for now – not buy OTT RSNs.
    • [43:08] Fubo telegraphs churn or cash issues, or both.
    • [46:06] User growth + improving DR ad products = nice tailwinds for Twitter.
    • [50:48] Microsoft wants to use upfront sales to show subscription’s relative value.
    • [52:14] Barry McCarthy knows subscription but does he know M&A?
    • [57:42] Networks continually fail in marketing sporting events.
    • [1:01:50] Wise words from a New York City crypto expert.
    • [1:02:58] Crystal Blue Persuasion.

Episode 92: February 4, 2022

    • [0:00] Tubthumping.
    • [1:20] Why is Rich’s hair Red?
    • [4:42] Snapchat has a different use case than TikTok.
    • [8:55] Zuckerberg is fighting a multi-front war.
    • [15:00] Sony buying Bungie is a positive for Microsoft.
    • [21:00] Rockstar is working on a new GTA (no kidding).
    • [22:56] Spotify’s platform changes are better late than never.
    • [24:07] Spotify’s stock was not down because of Joe Rogan.
    • [31:20] T-Mobile’s confetti bubble.
    • [33:12] Do ARPUs rise in a “competitive” wireless market?
    • [40:48] Should WWE be part of a much larger platform?
    • [51:04] CNN+ is DOA – Say Hello to HBO Max.
    • [54:00] When licensing sports rights, you don’t control your future.
    • [55:46] Amazon’s advertising business has truly arrived.
    • [59:18] Consolidation of sports betting operators is inevitable.
    • [1:03:44] Reminder: January’s box office was down over 52% from both 2020 & 2019.
    • [1:05:51] We trust the instincts of the two smartest executives in streaming.
    • [1:07:00] An NBA “RedZone” would have winners (the NBA) and losers (local RSNs).
    • [1:08:19] NBC learns from their Olympic mistakes.
    • [1:09:20] Dreams and Nightmares.

Episode 91: January 28, 2022

    Episode 91: 1/28/2022

    • [0:00] Whipping Post.
    • [1:48] The market is taking off its beer goggles.
    • [8:15] “Capitulate”, “LightShed”, and “Fubo” should not all be in the same sentence.
    • [16:07] Bob Iger’s refreshingly honest view of the theatrical business.
    • [19:17] Legacy media does not have video gaming DNA.
    • [22:19] Is Iger’s “Web 3.0” evolutionary or revolutionary?
    • [28:59] Netflix telegraphs acceleration of their M&A strategy.
    • [31:18] The DOJ may be poised to “try” to block more vertical deals.
    • [38:22] Is Bobby Kotick playing 3D chess?
    • [39:52] Microsoft’s commitment to widespread Call of Duty release is unsurprising.
    • [42:20] Peacock sub growth underscores why Comcast and NBCU should not be together.
    • [48:57] Fixed wireless increasing share of broadband pie is simple math.
    • [53:46] Sohn one step closer to becoming FCC commissioner.
    • [55:52] Jack trolling Mark: Carpe Diem.
    • [57:59] Consolidation of sportsbooks is inevitable.
    • [59:06] Apple’s content ambitions should terrify legacy media.
    • [1:02:15] Neil Young leaving Spotify only matters if others follow.
    • [1:04:53] Steve Aoki finds utility on the blockchain.
    • [1:08:30] Disney’s WWE deal means very little.
    • [1:10:50] Awaiting the great Marcelo’s next move.
    • [1:11:17] Helpless.

Episode 90: January 21, 2022

    Topics Include:

    • [0:00] Bat Out of Hell.
    • [0:14] RIP Meatloaf.
    • [3:39] Netflix’s terrible forecast doesn’t change their long-term streaming TAM.
    • [9:32] Long Netflix is now a bet on Ted, not Reed.
    • [16:56] Netflix is re-running their initial content playbook but in gaming.
    • [19:46] Activision Blizzard’s employee and recruitment issues spelled the end.
    • [22:11] Subscription gaming requires popular first-party content.
    • [33:28] Activision Blizzard catalyzes Microsoft’s metaverse ambitions.
    • [35:13] Looking at the Peloton time capsule.
    • [37:20] The Onion cuts their Fubo price target.
    • [38:54] AWS Telecom scores another major telco.
    • [40:42] Why did Disney choose a non-content exec to head international content?
    • [43:27] Early NY sports betting winners (including the MSG properties).
    • [48:13] YouTube does not need to spend money on premium content.
    • [52:28] NFT wallet growth is the most important NFT adoption metric.
    • [1:01:27] Kids on-demand audio could be huge.
    • [1:02:58] Would you rather be UFC heavyweight champion or a Free Agent?
    • [1:06:20] IG subscriptions should make the platform stickier.
    • [1:08:22] No one cares about your Wordle.
    • [1:08:54] Infinite Content.

Episode 89: January 14, 2022

    Topics Include:

    • [0:00] Rhinestone Cowboy.
    • [4:23] Goodbye Joe Judge.
    • [5:16] Take-Two/Zynga has clear strategic rationale but execution is TBD.
    • [12:13] Activision Blizzard should merge Zynga with King (but won’t).
    • [13:06] Sinclair’s DTC pivot does not make economic sense.
    • [19:24] The NBA will go direct with a better product offering than Sinclair.
    • [23:15] Have the stars finally aligned for Dish/DTC to combine?
    • [28:12] Apple/MLB would be a big deal even at small dollars.
    • [32:05] BT Sport gives DAZN much-needed geographic diversification.
    • [35:20] How long can streaming platforms drive up sports rights?
    • [37:32] Disney should not be allocating more capital to ESPN.
    • [40:00] Pixar staff does not want to acknowledge changing consumer behavior.
    • [42:26] The NFL is still king (no kidding).
    • [45:27] All media companies and brands will have a place on Roblox.
    • [48:13] Shop Pay’s strategic role in helping merchants.
    • [50:28] Nielsen troubles growing by the day.
    • [52:42] More and more movie studios need to start thinking of China box office as a zero.
    • [56:31] We can’t wait for a public Triller.
    • [59:07] I Walk the Line.

Episode 88: January 7, 2022

    Topics Include:

    • [0:00] Moby Dick.
    • [1:20] The Bob Chapek era has officially begun.
    • [3:03] Rich called the crypto top.
    • [4:06] Covid is the world’s greatest IQ test(s).
    • [8:37] Michael Rubin’s savage acquisition of Topps.
    • [9:58] Fanatics is a great example on how to disrupt an industry.
    • [12:23] Advertising and sponsorship platforms are the clear early winners in NY sports betting.
    • [15:12] AT&T tops table again in post-paid nets.
    • [19:23] Wireless impact on cable broadband intensifying.
    • [24:52] Why is Scott Rosenberg leaving Roku?
    • [29:03] The New York Times finally acquires The Athletic.
    • [33:40] UFC domestic rights are going higher next round.
    • [40:28] PlayStation has a leg up on Oculus in bringing VR to gamers.
    • [41:55] Metaverse wars are going to heat up in 2022.
    • [44:42] Podcasting still has meaningful share to take from terrestrial radio.
    • [48:08] HBO/HBO Max’s big year.
    • [51:54] Candle Media’s portfolio growing at incredible speed.
    • [53:12] Expect even more creation of interactive experiences based on linear IP and vice versa.
    • [55:27] Imax is becoming the movie industry.
    • [58:50] Adam Aron’s expensive ticket to the Rose Bowl.
    • [1:01:07] Moby Dick.

Episode 87: December 31, 2021

    Topics Include:

    • [0:00] 2021.
    • [4:04] Disney and Comcast End Hulu Partnership Three Years Early.
    • [7:15] Amazon Acquires Thursday Night Football and YouTube TV Takes Sunday Ticket.
    • [10:34] HBO/HBO Max Hit 50 Million Subscribers.
    • [14:02] Verizon Drops To Last Place In Wireless Phone Net Adds.
    • [14:51] Roku Raises Equity to Accelerate Original Programming.
    • [18:05] Dish’s Spectrum Included in iPhone 13.
    • [19:43] Disney Releases All Theatrical Films Day-and-Date on Disney+.
    • [23:48] Apple’s IDFA Opt-In Causes Wide-Ranging Pain, Accelerating Push to Subscriptions.
    • [26:45] Interactive Media Platforms Become Critical for Marketers and Distribution of Content.
    • [31:18] Google Achieves Dominance of Connected TV Ad Spend.
    • [33:27] Podcast Ad Spend Gaps Up and Apple Launches Podcast Subscription.
    • [34:52] Snapchat Reaches 500,000 Advertisers and Bitmoji’s Importance Grows.
    • [39:04] MGM Studios Acquired by Comcast’s NBC Universal.
    • [41:51] Creator Direct-to-Consumer Platforms See Exponential Growth.
    • [43:29] Apple TV+ Content Budget Soars to $5 Billion.
    • [45:06] Sports Teams/Leagues Need New Revenue Streams as Media Rights Start to Disappoint.
    • [47:44] Live Events Return Strong, Movie Theaters Struggle.
    • [52:00] Legacy Media Stops Investing in TV Everywhere, as DTC Takes Center Stage.
    • [54:02] Call of Duty Multi-Experience Paradigm Replicated and Imitated.
    • [56:48] Verizon Sells Media Assets.
    • [58:55] Donald Trump Launches DTC Media Platform.
    • [59:32] Other topics that dominated 2021: David Zaslav, Apes, and web3.
    • [1:03:43] Thank you all.
    • [1:05:14] Auld Lang Syne.