We reduced our Cogent price target to $45 from $60 and maintain our Sell rating. We do not believe it can hit its 2028 EBITDA target of $500 million. We believe Cogent’s long-term revenue growth is 5%. This is at the low-end of the company’s 5-7% long-term growth target. Interestingly, we are not below consensus in…
Since late April (link), Skydance and its affiliates have agreed to increase the secondary cash component of their proposed merger transaction with Paramount from ~$2 billion to ~$4 billion. Paramount Class B shareholders will be able to elect for cash at $15/share vs. new stock, up to cash cap of $4 billion, which equates to…
As multiple media outlets have reported (SBJ, link), official bids for NBA media rights are expected to be made in the coming days by Disney/ESPN, Comcast/NBC and Amazon, with the AAV of the deals rising from $2.7 billion to $7.3 billion (nearly 3x). The NBA Board of Governors must then vote to formally approve the…
In the linear TV world, bundling TV networks together enabled consumers to have a one-stop destination for all genres of content, with the MVPD/vMVPD user interface enabling a single access point and interface for all forms of content and, over time, enabled search that spanned all available content (not to mention a single destination/UI for…
Last week, Snap hosted its first ever Direct Response Summit, for performance marketers who are using or looking to use Snap. While we only have a short clip of what was said (see the video in the tweet embedded to the right), it is notable that Snap hosted the event in the first place and…
In the midst of last week’s TV upfronts, where the excitement has shifted from linear TV to streaming TV (most notably YouTube, Amazon and Netflix), Puck News’ Matt Belloni interviewed LightShed’s Rich Greenfield. We discussed who “won” upfront week, took a deep dive into Netflix’s rapidly growing advertising ambitions, why Comcast wants to overpay to…
We expect Skydance’s exclusive negotiating window with Paramount to expire tonight without an agreement. While Skydance could come back later in 2024 or next year, we sense National Amusements sees too many legal headaches with proceeding, given the special committee’s view of the proposed transaction. While investors will immediately expect National Amusements/Paramount to embrace the…
Evan Spiegel, Snap’s Co-Founder and CEO, is one of the great product visionaries of our time. Think about what Snap created and how their innovations have profoundly altered the future of mobile communications and video content consumption: While Spiegel and team certainly made the right decision not to sell to Facebook, now called Meta, in…
Here are our nine key questions for Netflix management on Thursday’s Q1 2024 earnings discussion (our Q4 2023 questions can be found here). Note: Netflix is no longer utilizing a sell-side analyst to moderate Q&A, shifting instead to questions submitted by analysts through an online form. 1) Explain How You Make Better/Cheaper Films? A recent New York…
Yesterday, the WSJ (link) reported that four members of the Paramount Board of Directors will not seek reelection at the company’s upcoming annual meeting. Paramount is expected to file its proxy later this week, with the annual meeting occurring on June 4th (proxy). It’s worth noting that Paramount’s distribution agreement with Charter expires on April…
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