We lowered our 2010 and 2011 EBITDA estimates because we simply do not believe that the new rate plans revealed by management on Tuesday will drive incremental subscriber growth and believe the company just effectively re-rated their customer base down to new levels. Click here for a copy of our note.
Simplification Continues – Updating Model Post-AOL; Look for Management to Build Credibility in 2010
With AOL finally jettisoned from Time Warner last month, TWX’s focus is now solely on its content businesses. We believe TWX can drive low single digit top line growth, at a minimum, in 2010 with TWX’s two key operating segments (Cable Networks and Film) shaping up as follows… Click here for full report
We continue to expect DirecTV’s free cash flow to ramp notably over the next couple of years, as subscriber growth slows. As our updated model illustrates, we are forecasting Free Cash Flow to ramp from just over $2/share in 2009 to $3/share in 2010 and nearly $4/share in 2011 (over $5.5 bn of free cash…
AT&T Wireless is at the bottom of another wireless survey. This time it was from Zagat, yes that Zagat which is known for its restaurant ratings. Before you are tempted to throw Zagat under the bus or discount their survey as being too New York centric, take a closer look. Zagat surveyed over 2,300 cellular…
The Weinstein Company movie, Youth in Revolt, premiered last Friday and generated $7 mm (not bad given the film’s sub $20 mm budget). While we have not seen the film, what we find interesting is one of the marketing methods used to promote the film.
While Sumner Redstone is set to turn 87 in May, there are no signs of him “willingly” giving up day-to-day control of his investment vehicle, National Amusements, which owns his (voting) control stakes in both Viacom and CBS. However, investors repeatedly ask us the question: “what would happen if Sumner were no longer around?” While…
MetroPCS lowered its outlook for EBITDA margins in its core markets and presented investors with a new marketing strategy that did not appear to us to be strong enough to drive incremental subscriber growth. Margins in the core markets are now expected to be in the mid 30% range from the low 40% range due…
MetroPCS released Q4 subscriber net additions of 317,000 that topped our estimate of 205,000 and guidance of 50,000-250,000 but were down 39% despite having expanded into New York and Boston in 2009. Investors largely believed the guidance was sandbagged but this is still a positive development. The beat was a result of lower than expected…
We increased our 2010 EPS estimate for AT&T by $0.03 to $2.05 after adding in the purchase of Centennial and Alltel properties to our model and introduced a 2011 EPS estimate of $1.84. We also updated our estimate of AT&T’s exposure to the iPhone, which we believe has risen to over 40% of AT&T’s post-paid…
Last week Sprint expanded its unlimited Boost pre-paid offering to a handful of CDMA phones however it will not allow new or existing customers to use their own CDMA phones on this rate plan. The reason appears quite clear. Sprint likely doesn’t want $99 Simply Everything customers converting down to the less expensive $60 BlackBerry…
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