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Upgrading T-Mobile and AT&T to Buy: The Other Three Are Out of Levers

No Surprise: Viacom’s Paramount Takes Redbox’s Money, 2010 Film Profits Could Exceed Expectations

Viacom’s Paramount continues to bolster near-term profitability, announcing yesterday that it was extending its short-term arrangement with Redbox through June 2010 (was set to expire at the end of December 2009), with an option for the deal to extend out until 2014.  We expected Paramount to extend their Redbox agreement, as they will still be…

Tiger’s Exit Will Not be Good for CBS; Comcast’s Golf Channel Drops in Value Just as Merger Announced

When Tiger Woods underwent knee surgery last year, Golf ratings on broadcast and cable networks typically dropped at least 50% (per Golf magazine, click here) from the levels when Woods was playing in those tournaments the year before.  While we have no way of forecasting the length of Wood’s current exit from professional Golf, near-term…

Will the NCAA Dunk CBS? CBS May Need to Pay Up for Sports Rights Sooner than Expected

CBS in November 1999, despite three years remaining on its NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament broadcast rights agreement, outbid Disney’s ABC/ESPN and News Corp.’s FOX/Fox Sports to extend its broadcast rights for another 11 years (click here for NY Times story from 12/19/99). CBS’ 1995-2002 NCAA Tournament contract cost $1.73 bn, averaging $216 mm/year. CBS’s 2003-2013 NCAA Tournament contract cost…

Revenue Outlook Improving, Free Cash Flow Stable, Yet Nobody Appears to Care at Only 3.6x 2010 FCF

During WMG’s just completed fiscal year (ending Sept), constant currency revenues declined about 4% excluding a one-time publishing gain in Q4.  While that revenue performance exceeded our expectations of mid-high single digits coming into fiscal 2009, the quarterly trajectory was even more encouraging with: Q1 down 6%, Q2 down 10%, Q3 down 2% and Q4…