On 10/18 prior to Comcast reporting Q3 ’07, we lowered our 2008 free cash flow estimate to $3.2 bn from $3.8 bn (well below street consensus), 20% below where our estimates were at the start of 2007 (at roughly $4.0 bn). Following a disappointing Q3 ‘07, in which Comcast lowered 2007 guidance for free cash,…
While major cable operators continue to state that not carrying the Big Ten Network and the NFL Network is having no material impact on their subscriber metrics and/or financial performance, we find this increasingly difficult to belieive. Particularly in the context of Comcast reducing guidance (see our separate note published this morning) for the second…
During a presentation earlier today, CHTR mgmt indicated that the video component of the $69.97 is limited to 27 basic channels; essentially lifeline basic (Click here for video channel line-up included). CHTR mgmt also confirmed that upselling video from lifeline basic is driving similar realized ARPU ($120-$130) to their prior $99 triple-play marketed price and…
While News Corp.’s new media strategy is considered a success, that success is largely due to their acquisition of Myspace. While News Corp. has embraced the web company-wide, Fox News.com trails CNN.com, Foxsports.com is way behind sites like ESPN.com, and even one of their best newspaper content brands Page Six (from the New York Post)…
The concerns we highlighted in our November 19th blog post (click here) have materialized and we now believe it is prudent to bring down our DWA earnings estimates (see Exhibit A). Our 2007 EPS estimate has been reduced by $0.13, 2008 by $0.19 and our average EPS 2007E-2010E has been reduced to $1.60 from $1.76.…
Thanksgiving week is typically one of the biggest weeks all year for the music industry. Year-to-date heading into Thanksgiving-week, music industry sales (combining physical and digital download unit sales) were down almost 9% in the US. The comparable figure for Thanksgiving week alone was down 14%; seperating out CDs, unit sales were down 21%. Physical…
Currently, Disney is the only major Hollywood studio to allow iTunes to sell digital versions of all their new releases day and date with the release of each movie on DVD (Paramount, Lionsgate and MGM have partial catalog deals with iTunes). We believe this is about to change as Twentieth Century Fox (owned by News…
The need for the Hollywood studios to embrace digital distribution is growing, as the rise of illegal content is increasing. Allofmp3.com was a Russian music download site that tried to present itself as legal, when in fact if had not obtained licenses to sell music (has now been shutdown following numerous legal battles). Now there…
We were disappointed by press reports that indicate that Sprint’s board did not consider an offer that would have included the return of Tim Donahue and other former Nextel executives to the company. We also note that Julie Richardson and her peers at Providence Equity Partners have tremendous knowledge of Nextel specifically and the wireless…
Myspace has now launched a “newsfeed” feature, similar to what is offered on Facebook (one of the most compelling features of Facebook). Myspace Friend Update Announcement Friend Update Privacy Settings Social Networking features will invariably converge as barriers to offering similar features is quite low. Recently, both Myspace and Facebook have been copying some of…
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