AOL’s Q3 ’07 results and its 10-Q commentary about AOL’s outlook increases our already high-level of concern over AOL’s long-term business prospects (organic EBITDA growth at AOL was down 26% in Q3 ’07). AOL advertising revenues were up only 13% in Q3, the fourth straight quarter of slowing growth (Q4 ’06 up 49%, Q1 ’07…
Less than 2 years ago VIVO’s bad debt was 13% of service revenue, churn was 2.6%, the subscriber base was restated by over 1 million subscribers and our outlook for revenue growth was that there would be none. In Q3 bad debt was less than 3% of revenue, churn is on the decline, G&A has…
Virgin Mobile’s stock is down 25% since its IPO at $15 but we still don’t believe that it has reached a level that fully discounts our concerns about the industry and the potential volatility in its reported results. We initiated coverage on the stock with a Neutral rating today in a report you can read…
Unfortunately, Mediacom management decided not to take our question during their Q3 2007 conference call earlier today. In turn, we thought we would share with you the questions we believe they need to address: Greater clarity into why CPE capital expenditures are up 20% year-to-date, while RGUs (excluding basic sub losses) are down 11%. While…
While investors stress over whether Facebook will “crush” Myspace or whether something new will come along and replace both of them, we increasingly believe that we are only in the “early innings” when it comes to the evolution of social networking, with tremendous growth ahead for the entire category. While most of the social networking…
If we were part of the Writers Guild, we would completely understand the rationale for striking…decades-old (compensation) formulas that appear so far out of date it’s laughable, with movie/TV companies trying to keep the vast majority of new media revenue streams for themselves to offset the poor, underlying economics of the TV/Film production business (particularly…
While speculation is building toward the launch of a Facebook ad network that reaches beyond the boundaries of Facebook, leveraging user data (click here to read the Pali blog post), Myspace has just announced the formal launch of its targeted advertising program. Given that Myspace has over 68 mm unique monthly users in the US…
This morning we downgraded Clearwire’s stock to Sell from Neutral. You can see the full report by clicking here. We have struggled with this story since we tested and liked the product but it just does not seem to be selling despite very strong sales of EVDO cards by Sprint and Verizon. We hesitated downgrading…
Sprint not only showed no improvement in its business, it appears that things are getting worse. While the company pre-announced its subscriber reductions already, the details of the quarter indicate that it is a result of post-paid churn of 2.4%, which is substantially higher than our 2.15% estimate and up 40 basis points from last…
No matter how many people the RIAA sues, no matter how many times music executives’ point to the growth of digital music, we believe an increasing majority of worldwide consumers simply view recorded music as “free”. A new model for music consumption must emerge and that model most likely involves DRM-free downloadable music at no…
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