Radius Global owns and aggressively acquires the property under wireless towers. Its resulting portfolio of leases generate tower-like revenue escalators. Their acquisition opportunities have been larger and more valuable than we initially anticipated. In addition, Radius’ rent escalators are likely to rise due to the inflationary environment. We expect 30% growth of In-Place Rents in…
We are increasing our Iridium price target to $58 from $54 and believe the company can retire 5% of its share count per year for the foreseeable future, while maintaining net debt leverage at 3x. Iridium grows its recurring service revenue in the high single digits with an unlevered free cash flow margin north of…
Disney has more iconic IP than any media company in the world. That said, we do not envy the current situation facing Disney CEO Bob Chapek. During the Bob Iger era at Disney, Iger was able to acquire an array of IP (Pixar, Marvel & Lucasfilm) that repositioned The Walt Disney Company for long-term success.…
Back in September 2021 (link), we highlighted our growing excitement around Spotify’s advertising business, remembering Spotify Co-Founder Daniel Ek’s LightShed Live comment from May 2020: “When we started Spotify, we thought the ad-supported part would be a lot larger than the subscription part. It’s the funny thing how these platforms play out sometimes. I know…
We are upgrading FUBO to Neutral from SELL and removing our $6.50 target price. Yesterday on CNBC’s Squawk Box, former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher made the statement that “the market has been wearing beer goggles for the longest time.” There was no better example than during the Fed-infused meme stock craze last winter. And,…
Here are the eight key questions investors should want answers to from Netflix management on tonight’s Q4 2021 earnings interview (our Q3 2021 questions can be found here). 1. Updated Thoughts on Global TAM. You have talked to the pandemic wreaking havoc on your ability to model your business. That said, you are continuing to…
We have made our first definitively wrong prediction in the LightShed Top 22 for 22. We said we believed Bobby Kotick would survive 2022 running Activision Blizzard in what could be “Kotick’s last stand.” We said if things did not improve then bigger strategic changes would become unavoidable. Eighteen days into 2022, ATVI announced a…
Last week, Sinclair’s Diamond Sports Group (DSG) reached an agreement with the NBA to stream its RSNs over-the-top to non-MVPD/vMVPD subscribers (link). It also increased its liquidity with a $600 million debt deal and the deferral of management fees being paid to Sinclair from its DSG subsidiary (link). As a result, it appears Sinclair has…
Last week, Derek Thompson invited me to join his Plain English podcast, part of The Ringer network on Spotify. Thompson and I discussed what happens to the movie theater business as we move past the pandemic with shorter windows and a surge of direct-to-consumer streaming content, whether streaming-only content can enter the zeitgeist, why the…
Welcome to the 2nd edition of the LightShed Earnings Scorecard! The only quarterly measuring stick that is holding companies accountable for the quality of their earnings calls. Earnings reports are set to kick off in the TMT sector, so it is time to review Q3 calls to see who improved and who is getting worse.…
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