We walked away from Disney’s fiscal Q2 (March) earnings conference call even more convinced that investor expectations for fiscal 2021 and 2022 are far too high (see yesterday’s downgrade to SELL, link). But what really upset us was that there were several important issues that were never addressed by the company or even asked about…
Our April 15th report on Disney titled Disney’s Unique Vulnerability to COVID-19 Should Keep Investors Away centered on how we thought about fiscal (September) 2021 earnings relative to fiscal 2019, acknowledging that 2020 would likely be ignored by investors. Yet, the more we have learned in the past few weeks and thought about how we…
As parts of the world begin to emerge from quarantine, we have eight critical questions for legacy media executives to answer as they begin to report Q1 2020 earnings this week: 1) Is Talent Comfortable With Restarting Production? Both Warner Bros. (link) and Netflix (link) have talked about the challenges and complexities of restarting production.…
The global video games industry has benefited from technology driven secular tailwinds for several years. More players touch games every year, players are playing for longer, and publishers are able to directly monetize time spent, with all of this at a higher margin. The trend has been well established. At the same time, the games…
Comcast wireless net adds were up 27% and EBITDA loss dropped to a record low to start 2020 as xFinity Mobile gains traction, moving closer towards our breakeven target. What could be next with CBRS and Dish? Path to Breakeven in Q1 of 2021? Comcast’s EBITDA loss, while a new low, was in-line with our…
We are initiating coverage of Apple with a Neutral rating. We do not expect 5G to trigger a supercycle and believe the consensus revenue and EPS estimates for 2021 are too optimistic about the impact of 5G on iPhone sales. We expect this to ultimately lead to downward revisions. We are also concerned that the…
UPDATE: We believe multiple MVPDs informed ESPN that affiliate fees should not be paid starting in April 2020 because sports content is not being delivered as specified in their affiliation agreements. The MVPDs correspondence with Disney/ESPN have apparently been completely rebuffed, even though the MVPDs indicated that all fees not paid to ESPN would be…
2020 was supposed to mark a new era for WWE, as the company completed its Raw and SmackDown licensing agreements and was set with a “transformative” cash flow profile that would allow for both reinvestment to power the company’s international growth and significant capital return. Instead, it has been a year of turmoil marked by…
When Snapchat reports tonight, all eyes will likely be focused on how the company is faring during the COVID-19 pandemic. Snapchat usage is clearly surging with consumers sheltering-in-place, although Q2 ad revenue is likely being pressured from a pull-back in global ad-spend as the recession takes hold. That said, Snapchat appears far better positioned than…
As the COVID-19 global pandemic became “real” in the US and we all learned what sheltering-in-place meant, we utilized data from iSpotTV to showcase the top 60 brands advertising on TV over the prior 12 months (March 15, 2019-March 16, 2020) and highlighted the sectors that were most impacted during the 2008-2009 recession (link). With…
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