Verizon could have a critical 5G marketing advantage when the iPhone launches later this year thanks to the combination of two key wireless technologies developed by Qualcomm. We still have concerns about the limited amount of spectrum Verizon has available to fuel the persistent growth in wireless data. However, we recognize that the stars are…
Disney stock reached an all-time high of $151.58 on November 27, 2019, following the incredibly successful launch of Disney+ earlier that month. At that moment, Disney’s consensus EPS expectations for fiscal (Sept) 2020-2022 were $5.49, $6.12 and $6.87, respectively. While Disney waited far too long to disrupt their cash cow legacy businesses, when they finally…
We are initiating coverage of Cogent with a Buy rating and $94 price target. We believe Cogent is benefiting from increased internet usage trends that will return its Net-centric business to growth in Q1 for the first time in seven quarters. We also expect its Corporate business to remain stable during shelter in place conditions…
Hope everyone reading this is safe and healthy. With media company after media company coming out publicly to say the growing global coronavirus pandemic is going to have a meaningful impact on their businesses, we thought it would useful to talk through some of the things we have been thinking about over the past week,…
Back on March 12 (link), we wrote about the debt covenant breach at National Amusements (NAI), the controlling shareholder of ViacomCBS. ViacomCBS investors feared that NAI would be forced to sell ViacomCBS shares as they did in 2009 (just months after telling investors they would not have to). In our March 12, 2020 piece, we…
The Bad News: Our ad market concerns in the face of the growing global #coronavirus pandemic, outlined in our March 18th post (link), were confirmed in Twitter’s pre-announcement this past Monday evening (not to mention Facebook’s statement yesterday evening). Given that Twitter now expects revenues to be down “slightly” in Q1 2020, after a strong…
It took less than a week for T-Mobile to deploy the 600 MHz spectrum that Dish and others loaned it. We analyzed new data from Opensignal that shows how much of the loaned 600 MHz spectrum T-Mobile has already deployed in each of the top 100 markets and who owns the spectrum that T-Mobile chose to…
Given that Netflix had negative free cash flow of $3.3 billion in 2019 and guided to $2.5 billion of negative free cash flow in 2020, we have talked to many investors who are concerned with the company’s access to capital during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. While it may be counter-intuitive, we believe the pandemic should…
We attempted to size the impact on the wireless industry from the nationwide effort to flatten the curve of Covid infections. Wireless operators have already started to close company owned stores, are providing leniency on late fees, and have committed to back stop the commission payments for their distribution partners. We believe the largest impact…
Following our two recent posts on movies going direct-to-consumer in the midst of a global COVID-19 pandemic that has shuttered movie theaters around the world, Recode’s Peter Kafka asked us to join him on his podcast, which is embedded below in full (note: our portion of the interview runs from 29:42-14:12 in the Spotify embedded…
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