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What if Dario Amodei Is Right?

Back to the Future: Why is EVERYONE Rushing to Get Back into Free TV?

Back in January 2019, just after Viacom acquired Pluto TV, we published The Rise of Free TV aka Cable TV Without The Bills, where we stated: “While trying to compete head-on with Netflix in SVOD is a fool’s errand, the shift to Internet-delivered television creates another opportunity to reach consumers: AVOD or advertising-supported video-on-demand.  While the value…

The (Many) Flaws in Professor Galloway’s Streaming Wars Thesis: Focus Trumps Scale

We recently read Professor Scott Galloway‘s take on the streaming wars called, “Bezosland,” which you can read here. After reading Galloway’s thought piece and conclusions, we conclude he does not really understand the streaming media world he wrote about. Honestly, it feels like he is working too hard to find a narrative to force regulators…

A Rare Combination of Growth and Safety Makes Live Nation a Diamond in the TMT Rough: Initiating with BUY, $100 Target

We are initiating on Live Nation with a BUY rating and a $100 Price Target based on 19.5x 2021 AOI of $1.3bn. TMT investing is becoming more treacherous by the day, whether from rapidly changing consumer behavior, rising competition and/or increased regulatory scrutiny. However, Live Nation has become a safe haven, which has years of…

Five Questions for ViacomCBS’ Inaugural Quarterly Conference Call

Tomorrow marks the first quarterly earnings conference call since Viacom and CBS recombined to create ViacomCBS. We thought it would be useful to lay out the five key questions management needs to address tomorrow. 1. Content Strategy: What Goes Where and Why? ViacomCBS has clarified/simplified its management/reporting structure with the early exit of CBS’ Joe…

Will Comcast’s Brian Roberts Do the Right Thing for Subscribers and Say NO to Sinclair’s Marquee Sports?

Comcast Chairman and CEO Brian Roberts, grew up in the cable video distribution business, literally. Roberts has watched the industry climb from its infancy to over 100 million MVPD subscribers. He is now watching it disappear in front of his own eyes as consumer behavior shifts from large, inflexible bundles of channels to streaming services…

Podcast: The War for Time and Attention

Earlier this week, we were interviewed by Anthony Pompliano, host of the Off the Chain podcast. The audio version of the podcast is embedded to the right via Spotify, a video replay on YouTube is embedded at the bottom of this post and for Apple Podcast fans, you can listen here.

The nearly two-hour discussion covered a broad array of topics affecting the future of media, with the central theme being “The War for Consumer Time and Attention”. We have…

Twitter is Simply a Better Product Now: Initiating with BUY and $45 Target

We are initiating coverage of Twitter with a BUY rating and a $45 one-year price target based on 25x estimated 2021 EV/EBITDA (shares are currently trading at 25x estimated 2020 EV/EBITDA).  Our BUY rating is driven by above consensus revenue and EBITDA growth underpinned by a fundamentally better product on which Twitter is iterating faster…