Look Who Top 60 TV Advertisers Are: What Happens in a Pandemic/Recession?

The question we keep getting is what happens to advertising during a pandemic and ensuing recession, particularly when the key driver of TV advertising, sports, are all suspended (see our sports-focused post, link). The honest answer is we are not exactly sure, especially given how hard it is to know how long the COVID-19 pandemic will last. While we can look back to the 2008-2009 recession (see Kantar chart embedded to the right, full release, link), the challenge for 2020 … Continue reading Look Who Top 60 TV Advertisers Are: What Happens in a Pandemic/Recession?

Would You Rent a New Movie for $20? Universal Leads Film Biz Into the Future

Would You Pay $20 To See Trolls? Universal Looks to Lead Film Industry into the Future

Yesterday (link), we laid out the math behind why movie studios were more likely to delay potential blockbuster films (those that could do $1-$2 billion in global box office), versus trying to release them directly to consumers via some form of premium video-on-demand (PVOD). However, we also wrote that the PVOD math could make sense for more modest films and within hours came the news that Universal Pictures (NBCU/Comcast) would launch Trolls via PVOD on April 10, 2020 (see NBCU … Continue reading Would You Rent a New Movie for $20? Universal Leads Film Biz Into the Future

Forget Theaters, Stream Movies Instead: Why It Cannot Happen, Sadly

Forgot Theaters, Stream Movies Instead: Why It Cannot Happen, Sadly

We expect the entire US movie exhibition industry to be forcibly shut shortly, after exhibition chain leadership teams failed to act to protect the public (NYC and LA have already announced theaters must close). Not to mention, every major film studio has delayed their entire film slate for months, if not into 2021, so there will be nothing new for theaters to show. Without movies in movie theaters, the entire sequential release pattern of movies that is carefully orchestrated … Continue reading

T-Mobile’s LTE Network Is About To Get Major Boost

Dish and other 600 MHz spectrum owners have agreed to allow T-Mobile to use their spectrum for the next 60 days in response to possible increased network demands stemming from the Covid outbreak. This should provide a noticeable upgrade to the performance of T-Mobile’s network. In our note, we discuss how soon T-Mobile can deploy the spectrum, the number of subscribers it will benefit and how much spectrum will be added to current LTE deployments. What happened? Late Friday, Dish … Continue reading T-Mobile’s LTE Network Is About To Get Major Boost

Will National Amusements’ Troubles Impact ViacomCBS?

Will National Amusements Troubles Impact ViacomCBS?

Back in 2008, National Amusements, the controlling shareholder of Viacom and CBS (which were separate entities at the time), was forced to sell shares in both companies after the value of both companies collapsed (impacting the collateral value against NAI debt). In our November 2008 blog post, we highlighted then-Viacom and CBS Chairman and Chairman and CEO of National Amusements, Sumner Redstone, stating (link): “It is important to understand that the value of NAI’s assets well exceeds its debt and … Continue reading Will National Amusements’ Troubles Impact ViacomCBS?

What Happens to Media Stocks When Sports Events Do Not Happen?

What Happens to Media Stocks When Sporting Events are Cancelled

While the global coronavirus pandemic is clearly growing more serious by the day, it still came as a shock to hear the NBA season was suspended, just hours after the NBA decided to shift to playing games in arenas without fans (Mavericks owner Mark Cuban’s reaction to the news captured it best in the ESPN clip embedded to the right). In our coronavirus thought piece last week (link), we highlighted the risks from sporting event cancellations. With the suspension… Continue reading

LightShed’s Favorite Quotes and Key Takeaways from Q4 2019 TMT Earnings

While everyone is rightfully focused on growing fears around #coronavirus (see our thought piece on key issues around the pandemic from last Friday, link), we thought it would be useful to lay out the most impactful takeaways from Q4 2019 earnings with our own thoughts/snark following each memorable management quote. Dish CEO Charlie Ergen: Inevitable that DirecTV and Dish merge “Probably inevitable that those two should go together just because the growth in TV is not coming from linear satellite … Continue reading LightShed’s Favorite Quotes and Key Takeaways from Q4 2019 TMT Earnings

How #CoronaVirus Could Impact Movies, TV, Sports, Gaming and Advertising

How #CoronaVirus Could Impact Movies, TV, Sports, Gaming and Advertising

Given the worsening global #coronavirus pandemic, we thought it would be helpful to lay out what it has us thinking about in terms of our broader coverage universe from the impact on the movie business, television, gaming, sports, advertising, streaming and beyond. While we hope the brainstorming over the impact of coronavirus proves unnecessary, here is our initial thought process of what you should be thinking about: Movies: Theaters vs. Streaming https://twitter.com/RichLightShed/status/1234848639933087744?s=20 So far, MGM’s upcoming James Bond, No Time … Continue reading How #CoronaVirus Could Impact Movies, TV, Sports, Gaming and Advertising

Will Sinclair’s MFN’s Allow All Distributors to Pick and Choose RSNs Now?

Will Sinclair's MFN's Allow All Distributors to Pick and Choose RSNs Now?

Earlier today, Sinclair announced it had reached a new affiliation agreement with YouTube TV (link to press release), but the agreement is the most unusual agreement we have ever seen. After YouTube TV threatened to drop all of the Sinclair Diamond Sports Group RSNs last week (link), today’s agreement leaves off the RSNs in New York (YES Network) and Los Angeles (Fox Sports West and Prime Ticket), along with their newly launched joint-venture network, Marquee Sports (Chicago). What Sinclair’s YouTube … Continue reading Will Sinclair’s MFN’s Allow All Distributors to Pick and Choose RSNs Now?

How Much Will T-Mobile’s New CFO Sandbag Guidance?

T-Mobile’s acquisition of Sprint provides it with the mid-band spectrum it needs to become the 5G leader in the United States. We believe T-Mobile will ultimately execute on this opportunity, but the integration of Sprint, clean-up of the 2.5 GHz spectrum, and changing management team could create a bumpy ride over the next six months. The closing of the deal will be a positive catalyst, but what follows next is less certain. How bad is Sprint? It has been 22 … Continue reading How Much Will T-Mobile’s New CFO Sandbag Guidance?