Paging T-Mobile, The iPhone 12 Launched Today!

The 5G iPhone is here and AT&T slapped a record breaking subsidy on it. That’s good news for Apple, which would benefit if the 6-year lengthening of the replacement cycle inverted. It was also a good day for Verizon’s Hans Vestberg, who got to flip the switch on his 5G network on Apple’s stage with Tim Cook and introduce mmWave spectrum across the complete line of new iPhones. It was less fun for Mike Sievert. The fat subsidy is back … Continue reading Paging T-Mobile, The iPhone 12 Launched Today!

Disney’s Restructuring Is Less Transformative Than We Thought

At Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and Apple TV+, there is only one place for content to go: streaming. At legacy media companies that are trying to pivot to streaming, there are a wide array of choices including theaters, broadcast TV, cable TV, streaming, and sometimes even multiple streaming services. In turn, we were really excited when we saw the Disney restructuring news last night (link). Our initial interpretation, bolstered by what we thought we heard Disney CEO Bob Chapek say … Continue reading Disney’s Restructuring Is Less Transformative Than We Thought

It’s Time For Stankey to Call Ergen

Despite all the noise, we still believe a combination of the satellite Pay TV business of AT&T and Dish is inevitable. If anything, the noise by the press is an indication that it might be drawing near. While AT&T may elect to take a multi-step approach that involves private equity, we believe the end game for DirecTV is Dish. This would provide a material deleveraging event for both companies and present a new challenge for broadcast/cable network programmers. What price … Continue reading It’s Time For Stankey to Call Ergen

Are Streaming Wars a Fallacy? 64% of Streaming Spent in 3 Apps, 83% in 5 Apps

Netflix has consistently stated in their long-term view that “streaming entertainment is replacing linear TV,” which is consistent with Roku’s view (link) that the “massive TV ecosystem is moving to modern platforms with streaming at the center of a more dynamic and innovative approach to content distribution.” Legacy media finally agrees and while Disney is by far the most aggressive to-date (link), all the major media and entertainment companies now appear to believe streaming is their future (WarnerMedia, NBCUniversal, ViacomCBS, … Continue reading Are Streaming Wars a Fallacy? 64% of Streaming Spent in 3 Apps, 83% in 5 Apps

Raising Netflix Price Target to $630 as Movie Competition Disappears

Netflix stock has surged far beyond the price target we set in October 2019 (link). At that time, fears around the coming onslaught of competition from Disney+ and AppleTV+ were peaking, and investors were looking ahead to HBO Max and Peacock entering the “streaming wars” in 2020. Netflix not only shrugged off competition, the COVID-19 pandemic has pulled forward industry change, breaking the theatrical business just as Netflix’s theatrical investments are starting to bear fruit. In turn, we are increasing … Continue reading Raising Netflix Price Target to $630 as Movie Competition Disappears

What The Shutdown of Sprint’s Network Means For TowerCo’s

“Lower price for longer duration” is the messaging coming out of the new Master Lease Agreement (MLA) signed between T-Mobile and American Tower. But what does that mean and why would a tower company need more duration given the historically low churn? We crunched the numbers in an attempt to answer those questions and come up with a view on 2021 estimates ahead of the February guide. We also discuss what AMT’s new MLA might mean for SBA and why … Continue reading What The Shutdown of Sprint’s Network Means For TowerCo’s

Verizon’s Move To #1 In Prepaid. Why Now, Lost Revenue And Taking The Fight To T-Mobile.

The sale of TracFone to a national wireless operator in the United States is long overdue. The synergies to any of them were obvious and we believe America Movil has been open to the discussion for some time. Verizon ended up pulling the trigger today, so we ran through the implications for each of the US operators and America Movil. The obvious deal that no one pursued The deal logic of a TracFone purchase is simple. The facilities-based buyer can … Continue reading Verizon’s Move To #1 In Prepaid. Why Now, Lost Revenue And Taking The Fight To T-Mobile.

New Math: Netflix Revenues Greater than Disney/Warner Studios “Combined”

We do not hate movies theaters. In fact, we actually love going to see movies in theaters, at least we did in a pre-COVID-19 world (this Cinemark cleaning video illustrates just how unappealing movie theaters are right now, not to mention increased research citing the aerosol nature of the virus). Every sub-sector of TMT needs to evolve or it will ultimately face extinction from technological disruption, and movies are no different. It is one thing to offer consumers a choice … Continue reading New Math: Netflix Revenues Greater than Disney/Warner Studios “Combined”

The DOJ Has Spoken. Dish Will Lease Spectrum To T-Mobile

The DOJ has determined the terms of a 600 MHz spectrum lease deal between Dish and T-Mobile. As we expected, Makan Delrahim followed through on executing on the terms of the Final Judgement of the approved merger of T-Mobile and Sprint. However, there still might be one more hurdle to clear. This new lease will trigger the FCC’s spectrum screen, an item that we believe Verizon might be gearing up to use to limit T-Mobile’s participation in the upcoming C-Band … Continue reading The DOJ Has Spoken. Dish Will Lease Spectrum To T-Mobile

Day One, Year Two

Happy birthday to us!  It certainly has not been the year we expected.  Everyone reading this (and everyone in the world) has faced unimaginable events and challenges causing us to fundamentally change the way we live and work, and reexamine our values. Although we write from five different locations in four states, our team is closer than ever.  And, we are also more thankful than you can imagine for your continued support, despite your own trials and tribulations. Our primary goal … Continue reading Day One, Year Two