Twitter is Simply a Better Product Now: Initiating with BUY and $45 Target

We are initiating coverage of Twitter with a BUY rating and a $45 one-year price target based on 25x estimated 2021 EV/EBITDA (shares are currently trading at 25x estimated 2020 EV/EBITDA).  Our BUY rating is driven by above consensus revenue and EBITDA growth underpinned by a fundamentally better product on which Twitter is iterating faster than at any point in its history. Through a combination of significant machine learning and AI investments, “tweets” are increasingly finding a Twitter user, versus … Continue reading Twitter is Simply a Better Product Now: Initiating with BUY and $45 Target

Big Win For T-Mobile And 5G. Is A Revised Price Coming?

Judge Marrero approved T-Mobile’s acquisition of Sprint this morning, despite widespread skepticism that had been driving Sprint’s stock lower on a daily basis. It does not appear that Judge Marrero has layered any additional deal conditions on the transaction. In fact, headlines indicate that Marrero was not compelled that prices would rise or that Sprint would be a viable stand-alone competitor. Many were singularly focused on the testimony of Dish CEO Charlie Ergen going into and during the trial. That … Continue reading Big Win For T-Mobile And 5G. Is A Revised Price Coming?

Who Won Yesterday's 5G Spectrum Super Bowl?

Yesterday was the Super Bowl for mid-band spectrum. FCC Chairman, Ajit Pai, forged forward with his long debated plan for C-Band spectrum, US Attorney General Bill Barr highlighted the importance that the FCC move forward on L-Band spectrum, and T-Mobile provided some sobering comments on the status of Dynamic Spectrum Sharing (DSS) technology. However, the most important mid-band spectrum item remains unresolved; Judge Marrero’s ruling on T-Mobile’s acquisition of Sprint. We think John Legere should start looking into flights to … Continue reading Who Won Yesterday's 5G Spectrum Super Bowl?

What is the Relationship Between WWE and the XFL? Plus Seven Other Questions Vince McMahon Must Answer Tomorrow

WWE investors remain bewildered following last week’s departure of co-Presidents George Barrios and Michelle Wilson. We will likely never know exactly what happened last Thursday and why – including whether their dismissal was an impetuous decision by WWE Chairman and CEO Vince McMahon or a carefully planned termination. Nonetheless, the company, which was about to embark on a new chapter anyway following the completion of its global television licensing renewals, is surrounded by a fog of investor uncertainty. There are … Continue reading What is the Relationship Between WWE and the XFL? Plus Seven Other Questions Vince McMahon Must Answer Tomorrow

Nine Streaming Questions for Disney's Fiscal Q1 2020 Earnings

With Disney having made direct-to-consumer streaming the #1 priority for the company, investors will be keenly focused on Disney’s streaming metrics when they report fiscal Q1 2020 (December 2019) results tonight. However, Disney will also need to help investors understand the ongoing impact from Coronavirus that has forced the closures of both Shanghai Disneyland (closed 12 days so far) and Hong Kong Disneyland (closed 10 days so far), not to mention the impact it is likely having on travel from … Continue reading Nine Streaming Questions for Disney's Fiscal Q1 2020 Earnings

By George! The Pressure is Squarely on Vince McMahon to Improve WWE Content

18 months ago, the investment community celebrated then-WWE co-Presidents George Barrios and Michelle Wilson after signing new domestic rights deals with NBCU and FOX. The deals represented a 3.6x AAV increase from the prior Raw and SmackDown deals and completely changed WWE’s financial profile and broadened WWE’s reach to broadcast television for the first time. It was the culmination of a long battle to convince content distributors that WWE content was significantly undervalued given the passionate eyeballs the company’s flagship … Continue reading By George! The Pressure is Squarely on Vince McMahon to Improve WWE Content

FCC Auctions Even More mmWave Spectrum As Operators Wait For Resolution on C-Band and Ligado

The FCC completed the primary component of its third consecutive auction of mmWave spectrum. Over the last 14 months, the FCC has auctioned nearly 5 GHz of spectrum in 5 different mmWave bands. None of these auctions have mustered a value that exceeds $0.0113/MHz/POP. This latest auction was for spectrum bands even higher on the frequency chart than the 28 GHz spectrum band that Verizon is currently deploying. Higher spectrum means even shorter distances as mmWave spectrum is already marred … Continue reading FCC Auctions Even More mmWave Spectrum As Operators Wait For Resolution on C-Band and Ligado

Eight Questions You Should Ask Facebook Management Tonight

Despite all the political and regulatory headlines/noise, consumers and advertisers continue to love using the Facebook family of apps. There is a tiny but vocal minority that loves to tweet about how they deleted their Facebook or never signed up for Instagram, but overall engagement with Facebook apps not only remains robust, but it is actually pretty difficult to avoid the Facebook family of apps in your daily life. Just think about Facebook Groups – where else on the… Continue reading

How Ticketmaster's Sworn Enemy, Pearl Jam, Became Its New Best Friend

For those of us old enough to be music fans and attending concerts in the mid-1990s, Pearl Jam and Ticketmaster will forever be inextricably linked. Pearl Jam became synonymous with anti-Ticketmaster venom from both artists and consumers during that period, who saw the ticketing company as a monopoly (even in the pre-Live Nation merger days) that charged egregious fees to the detriment of both parties.  Beyond creating its own fan ticketing, inspired by the Grateful Dead, the band tried to … Continue reading How Ticketmaster's Sworn Enemy, Pearl Jam, Became Its New Best Friend

The Spectrum Story Verizon Doesn't Want You To Hear

Verizon’s spectrum position has been a nagging concern for investors and it’s likely to persist in 2020. Verizon’s current network strategy leans heavily on small cell densification and mmWave spectrum. However, the early performance of mmWave spectrum has been worse than promised and the pace of small cell deployments is slower than expected. So the reality is that Verizon continues to convert existing spectrum to LTE from CDMA to maintain and improve its network performance. But how much spectrum does … Continue reading The Spectrum Story Verizon Doesn't Want You To Hear