T-Mobile Didn’t Extend Sprint Merger Agreement. It’s Time For DT To Renegotiate

T-Mobile has not announced an extension of its merger agreement with Sprint. The deal passed its outside date deadline on Friday. That means that both companies have gained the option to terminate the deal at any time. We think Deutsche Telekom should use that flexibility to renegotiate the terms of the deal, given the erosion at Sprint and the rising cost of the transaction. We also believe a lower price paid to Sprint could actually help its case with the States … Continue reading T-Mobile Didn’t Extend Sprint Merger Agreement. It’s Time For DT To Renegotiate

Eight Reactions to HBO Max Investor Day

While WarnerMedia did not address all of our ten questions heading into their HBO Max Investor Day (see our list, link), we now have a far better understanding of the growth strategy and financial plan for HBO Max, in addition to a first-look at what the service actually looks like (HBO Max is taking technology and consumer interface far more seriously than the less than inspiring HBO Go and HBO Now). After sitting through the investor day, the most obvious … Continue reading Eight Reactions to HBO Max Investor Day

BlizzCon Should Catalyze Recovery – Initiating Activision Blizzard with BUY, $68 Target

It has been nearly a year since the wheels came off at Activision Blizzard (ATVI). A company previously known for superior execution seemed to have lost its way in a hurry, not only to the detriment of investors, but also to ATVI’s relationship with its passionate player base.  Since then, ATVI has moved quickly to execute a turnaround, and shares have moved well off their 52-week low with recent momentum from Modern Warfare (fastest selling CoD this generation), Call of Duty: Mobile and World of Warcraft Classic.  However, as BlizzCon kicks … Continue reading BlizzCon Should Catalyze Recovery – Initiating Activision Blizzard with BUY, $68 Target

Handbook for WarnerMedia’s HBO Max Investor Day – Top Ten Questions Beyond Pricing

Later today, we will be attending WarnerMedia’s first ever analyst day where management will unveil details and strategy for the coming launch of HBO Max and how it fits into their larger WarnerMedia/AT&T strategy. The single biggest question heading into today’s event is what will HBO Max be priced at and how will that impact legacy HBO (with expectations ranging from sub $10, which requires repricing HBO’s existing sub base to a slight premium to HBO’s current $15 retail price) … Continue reading Handbook for WarnerMedia’s HBO Max Investor Day – Top Ten Questions Beyond Pricing

Masa Might Raise More Capital For Next Vision Fund, But Will It Matter For SoftBank’s Stock?

SoftBank Chairman and CEO, Masa Son, has an opportunity to change a decidedly negative news cycle for the company if he is able to raise more money for Vision Fund 2. He will be attending the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh this week to do just that, as highlighted by Fox Business. (Link) It would obviously improve SoftBank’s fundamental outlook based on the larger opportunity for management and incentive fees on that new money. However, the Vision Funds have to … Continue reading Masa Might Raise More Capital For Next Vision Fund, But Will It Matter For SoftBank’s Stock?

Demo: TikTok is Friend, Not Foe to Snapchat – Boosting Time Spent on Snapchat Platform

Following Snapchat’s Q3 2019 results, we are even more convinced that the stock can reach $20 over the coming year (link to our recent BUY rated initiation). Snapchat user growth continues to exceed investor expectations, with Snapchat giving its users more to do as it increasingly becomes a platform for the mobile generation leveraging Snapkit. More time spent on Snapchat leads to increased monetization. Investors are simply not paying enough attention to the potential of Snapkit. Snapchat as a platform … Continue reading Demo: TikTok is Friend, Not Foe to Snapchat – Boosting Time Spent on Snapchat Platform

As MSG Circles Catalysts, $360 In View: Initiating With BUY Rating

At LightShed Partners, we are launching official coverage as opportunities arise, whether they be price dislocations or hard catalysts.  Madison Square Garden has both right now, and we believe deserves immediate investor attention.  We are initiating with a BUY rating and a $360 PT. Investors have acknowledged for some time that Madison Square Garden trades at a discount to the sum of its parts.  The “stupid math” starts with the team values.  Forbes alone values the Knicks and Rangers at … Continue reading As MSG Circles Catalysts, $360 In View: Initiating With BUY Rating

What Is Comcast’s Wireless Strategy And When Will It Break-Even?

Comcast’s wireless net adds of 204,000 were slightly above expectations, but down 10.5% from last year, a three quarter trend of net declines >10%. It’s becoming increasingly clear that Comcast’s wireless offering is simply playing a supporting role to residential broadband, which performed well this quarter. It was only a few years ago that investors feared Comcast and other cable operators would become major disruptors to the wireless industry, destroying margins and spiking industry churn. It’s no longer “too early” … Continue reading What Is Comcast’s Wireless Strategy And When Will It Break-Even?

Should Delrahim and Sprint Shareholders Worry About A Tunney Act Review?

Last week, 7 economists called for a review of Makan Delrahim’s pending and conditional approval of T-Mobile’s acquisition of Sprint. (Link) As head of the DOJ’s Antitrust Division and a Trump appointee, Delrahim has been no stranger to scrutiny. A judge still needs to sign off on the Delrahim deal, as required under the Tunney Act of 1974. This typically occurs without incident. The Sprint/T-Mobile deal, however, has been anything but typical. What now? Makan Delrahim, the antitrust head of … Continue reading Should Delrahim and Sprint Shareholders Worry About A Tunney Act Review?

Snapping Back: Initiating Snap at BUY with $20 Price Target

Google and Facebook dominate mobile advertising, but there is plenty of room for other “winners” as mobile time spent continues to scale (link). Brands and advertisers are looking for more ways to target consumers on the most personal device they own, mobile phones, especially younger consumers, as time spent with traditional media continues to collapse (live TV ratings now in freefall outside of live sports). With an estimated $1.75 billion in 2019 revenues, Snapchat is still in the early stages … Continue reading Snapping Back: Initiating Snap at BUY with $20 Price Target