May is a big month for Warner Bros. Discovery. Not only are they releasing Q1 2023 earnings tomorrow, they are also preparing for the rebrand of HBO Max into Max by incorporating the vast majority of Discovery+ content. Yet, we are far more intrigued by WBD’s strategic decisions over the past six months, starting with…
The drumbeat to ban TikTok grew meaningfully louder throughout March, ahead of TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew’s appearance before a Congressional subcommittee. Two Congressional bills were introduced during this period: the Deterring America’s Technological Adversaries (DATA) Act and the Restricting the Emergence of Security Threats that Risk Information and Communications Technology (RESTRICT) Act. While both…
We are updating our stale estimates and price target on Snap following a challenging 2022. Snap was far too slow adjusting to the ad-targeting headwinds caused by Apple’s IDFA/ATT, which crushed profitability given a cost structure that required far faster revenue growth. On top of that, Snap played a key role enabling TikTok’s explosive growth…
Here are our ten key questions for Netflix management on tonight’s Q1 2023 earnings interview (our Q4 2022 questions can be found here). 1) When do you expect to rollout password sharing in the US? While you did not explicitly state the timing of the domestic password sharing crackdown, many investors assumed that it would…
The current contract between the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and Hollywood studios (The Association of Motion Picture and Television Producers, AMPTP) expires on May 1, 2023. Both sides are actively preparing for a strike, with the WGA seeking a strike authorization from guild members this week. The last WGA/AMPTP negotiation in 2020 could have…
The HBO Max brand was first revealed in Summer 2019, ahead of an investor day in October 2019 (link to our reactions). The premise behind HBO Max was to broaden and deepen HBO’s content to increase engagement, reduce churn, and appeal to a broader audience (prior to the launch of HBO Max, core HBO subs…
Welcome to the Seventh Edition of the LightShed Earnings Scorecard – our attempt to hold companies and analysts accountable for the quality of earnings calls. 66 coffee sustained hours We tracked 70 companies in this quarter’s edition of the Scorecard, adding Gray Television and Nexstar, while excluding Activision, Airspan, Radius, and Starry. MSG Sports will…
There has been increased investor interest in international investment opportunities due to the macro-economic factors in the United States. As a result, we thought it might be a good time to provide a quick primer and refreshed investment opinion on America Movil, the leading Latin American telco with a $65 billion market cap and a…
We downgraded Apple to Sell from Neutral and established a $120 price target. Our estimates are below consensus on a more conservative outlook for iPhone sales and moderating growth expectations in Services revenue. The replacement rate will continue to lengthen We believe the lengthening of the smartphone replacement cycle will persist into calendar 2024 for…
Nexstar used the stage at an investor conference this week to gloat about being one of the only media stocks that appreciated in 2022, driven by robust free cash flow, and to explain how they believe Nexstar stock is still cheap. As we listened, we could not help but think about Nextar’s blindness to a…
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