Heading into Comcast/NBC Universal’s Peacock Investor Day, we laid out 13 questions for management (link), with the vast majority of our questions addressed during the presentation and the Q&A session. Our key takeaway from the Peacock Investor Day was just how far Comcast’s view of the video ecosystem has evolved in the past few years: Early 2017: Viewed multichannel video bundle as a growth business driven by Xfinity platform investment (link)Q3 2018: Shifted focus to only acquiring profitable Xfinity video … Continue reading Peacock Reveals Comcast Sees a Future Without a Video Bundle
Tomorrow afternoon in NYC, we will be attending the NBCU investor day where management will unveil details and strategy for the coming launch of “Peacock” and how it fits into the larger roadmap for Comcast and NBC Universal. Legacy media companies face two major problems that Peacock seeks to address. First, cable network reach is collapsing with fully-distributed cable networks set to fall below 80 million subscribers in 2020, a level they have not seen since 2000 (as we… Continue reading
T-Mobile’s attempt to purchase Sprint faced another setback on Friday when Judge Timothy Kelly extended his Tunney Act review of the DOJ settlement into mid-February. We had initially expected this routine review to end in mid-November. (Link) Now it might not conclude until after Judge Victor Marrero’s decision in the State AG case, thereby delaying T-Mobile’s ability to close the deal. This generates additional uncertainty for investors and could further widen the ratio between T-Mobile and Sprint’s stock. What happened? … Continue reading Another Setback In T-Mobile’s Attempt To Buy Sprint
Happy New Year! As always, we are kicking off TMT coverage in the new year by laying out our top predictions and events to watch for in 2020 – what we call our #Top20for20. To see what we got right and wrong in last year’s Top 19 list for 2019, it can be found here. The TMT landscape is rapidly evolving with meaningful changes to how people communicate, consume content, play games and travel, with scale and focus increasingly important factors for success. … Continue reading LightShed's Top 20 TMT Predictions and Events to Watch for in 2020 #Top20for20
Yesterday reports surfaced that Apple may have interest in Pac-12 conference sports rights (link), while earlier this year, Amazon was part of the team-led investor group that acquired the YES Network (link). So why are the large tech platforms increasingly interested in local/regional sports rights, while we have yet to see them acquire high-profile national rights? We believe the answer ties back to the thesis of our Legacy Media Jenga blog from last year: “If you are watching YES Network … Continue reading Why Apple and Amazon May Want Local/Regional Sports More than National
Our optimism continues to grow about T-Mobile’s ability to prevail in the State AG lawsuit challenging its acquisition of Sprint. We have no experience in these matters, have sought no legal advice, and have no idea what Judge Marrero deems relevant in making his decision. Yet, we have sat through eight days of testimony and we believe the State AGs have failed to make a compelling enough case that justifies a District Court Judge effectively overruling the decisions of two … Continue reading Has Ergen Delivered A Win For Masa and T-Mobile?
Following the first time release of Netflix’s regional subscriber data (link), the New York Times wrote: “Netflix Looks Abroad as Growth Slows in the US.” There is no doubt that the core driver of the Netflix story is international expansion, but that has been the case for at least the past three years — literally nothing changed yesterday. Consider the following four Netflix facts: US subscriber growth has been decelerating since Netflix started breaking out streaming in 2012, other… Continue reading
We believe T-Mobile has been effective at defending itself against the State AGs’ suit thus far. This week’s witnesses, which include Charlie Ergen of Dish and Marcelo Claure from Sprint, could alter that momentum but we suspect investors might have been too pessimistic about T-Mobile’s ability to prevail in court. In addition, based on details that have emerged during the trial, we believe Dish’s MVNO deal is more attractive than we initially thought. Finally, we generate notes from each day’s … Continue reading T-Mobile Doing Better Than Expected At Sprint Trial
”If they want you to cook the dinner, at least they ought to let you shop for some of the groceries.” Patriots Head Coach Bill Parcells, January 31, 1997 (he left the next day for the Jets) We first wrote about the urgent need to combine Viacom and CBS on June 3, 2016 (link) – sadly, it took the Viacom and CBS Board of Directors 42 months to complete the recombination earlier this month. Over those 3 1/2 years, the … Continue reading Dear ViacomCBS Board of Directors: Fix The Mess You Created
One week remains before the start of the State AGs court case against the Sprint/T-Mobile merger. We believe the odds that T-Mobile is able to secure a settlement before the trial begins are low, although the company will likely be pushing hard even in the final hours before the trial starts. In a separate proceeding, Judge Timothy Kelly, a Trump appointee, has still not signed off on the DOJ’s merger settlement with T-Mobile. This Tunney Act review is typically routine, … Continue reading Can T-Mobile Clear The Tunney Act Review Ahead Of The Big Trial Next Week?