Last week’s Disney Investor Day was a stunning display of content that illustrated the company now understands the need to dramatically increase spending on original programming for Disney+ to increase engagement (ramping from $2 billion annually today to over $8 billion annually by 2024). Increasing engagement with must-see content will not only reduce churn and increase gross additions but should enable meaningful pricing power for Disney+. Higher pricing is critical for Disney+, whose ARPU is a meager $4.52, driven by … Continue reading WATCH: Is Disney Creating the Flexibility to Pivot Movies to Disney+ Day and Date?
At today’s Disney Investor Day, the focus is once again on streaming and how fast Disney is pivoting away from both the legacy multichannel universe and the longstanding movie industry sequential release windows. Here are the eight things we expect to see today: 1. End of Iger/Horn Era. We expect the Investor Day to serve as the final power shift from the Bob Iger era to the Bob Chapek era. We expect Chairman Iger to retire at the end of … Continue reading Eight Things LightShed Expects From Disney’s 2020 Investor Day
https://youtu.be/zxGuABwB6YI?t=270 “Denial is the most predictable of all human responses.”The Matrix Reloaded, Warner Bros, 2003 When we laid out our thoughts on Warner Bros’ decision to release Wonder Woman 1984 simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max, Jason Kilar’s Wonder Woman Memo and the Future of the Film Industry, we had no idea it would quickly be followed by WarnerMedia’s decision to premiere its entire 2021 film slate day and date in theaters worldwide and on HBO Max in the … Continue reading Dear Chris Nolan: You Cannot Stop the Movie Industry’s Evolution
No industry has been more affected by COVID-19 than live events. Which is to say, Live Nation has not had a business for the past eight months. They have simply been in the business of survival. To that end, the company has made it work by fortifying its balance sheet with $1.6bn of fresh debt and a significant cost cutting program to keep cash burn in check. Finally, the other side is in sight with vaccines set for distribution. In … Continue reading LYV Will Emerge Stronger From COVID-19 Fueled by Ticketmaster’s Globalization
It’s Black Friday, 2020. At the start of the year, many thought the United States would be in the middle of a fierce 5G market share battle by this point in the year. Some even thought that it might deliver a new super-cycle for Apple. The Covid pandemic and the thinly built initial 5G networks have altered that outlook. Settle in because we hit a lot of topics. We outline what to expect from the ever-lengthening replacement cycle and what … Continue reading The Sad Reality Of 5G In The United States In 2020
We have been advocating for studios with direct-to-consumer streaming platforms to use their best content (tentpole feature films) to drive SVOD — going “all-in” versus simply talking about embracing streaming. While PVOD is a step in the right direction, the evidence shows it only works for smaller films, with Trolls being a success and Mulan failing; not to mention, its unclear how well Trolls would work if we had not been in full lockdown mode. Disney saw real success bringing … Continue reading Jason Kilar’s Wonder Woman Memo and the Future of the Film Industry
When Paul Kirby from TR Daily broke the news yesterday morning that the FCC had finally made a ruling on the Dish Designated Entities, we thought the implications would have been obvious. Perhaps we have been too in the weeds on this topic over the past five years. The subsequent press coverage has clearly missed the mark, so we thought it would be helpful to quickly outline our views. Sorry for the delay. We also discuss the importance of Dish’s … Continue reading Cutting Through The Dish Hysteria
We have always questioned the logic of vertical integration of content and distribution in media. History has supported our skepticism. AOL Time Warner created a lot of investment banking fees, but destroyed shareholder value. Time Warner was not helped by owning Time Warner Cable, nor did News Corp benefit from its ownership of DirecTV. There are two such vertically integrated media companies still standing: NBC Universal, which is part of Comcast, and WarnerMedia, which is part of AT&T. Comcast was … Continue reading Why WarnerMedia & NBC Universal Should Merge, Even if They Are Not Ready Yet
The “streaming wars” between an ever increasing array of direct-to-consumer streaming services (Netflix, Prime Video, Apple TV+, Disney+, Hulu, HBO Max, CBS All Access, Peacock, Starz, Showtime, Pluto, Tubi, Roku Channel, Xumo, etc.), remain top of mind for investors. However, we remain far more focused on another set of streaming wars between TV OS platforms/devices and streaming apps/programmers, as we examined in our July 2020 War for the Living Room post (link). At last week’s Paley International Council Summit, Liberty … Continue reading John Malone: Is Roku the Scaled, Global Gatekeeper to Streaming Video?
Heading into Disney’s fiscal September Q4 2020 earnings tonight, we have 10 key investor questions. The overwhelming investor focus remains on Disney’s transition to streaming, the company’s level of commitment and the actions it is taking to get there heading into a December 10th Investor Day. 1. Did the Reorg Empower Creatives or Strip Power from Creatives? You have talked about how the recent reorg will accelerate your move into streaming by centralizing distribution under Kareem Daniel. However, as we … Continue reading Ten Questions Heading into Disney’s Fiscal Q4 2020 Earnings Tonight